NHL team panic meters: Should Avalanche, Oilers, others be worried?
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Kristen Shilton, ESPN NHL reporter
The 2024-25 NHL season is just two weeks old and already chock-full of surprises.
Did we expect the Winnipeg Jets to be the last undefeated team? Or for the Calgary Flames to be steamrolling the competition? And what of the Utah Hockey Club, making expansion life look good?
It’s been an exciting run — for some. For others, not so much. There are backs against the wall, so to speak.
But it’s still early … right?
These five teams had better hope so.
We’re breaking down the clubs who came into the 2024-25 campaign rife with expectations that haven’t quite lived up to the hype. What’s holding them back? And how worried should fans be about their trajectory from here?
It’s our (probably) too-early Panic Meter readings! Let’s dissect the candidates:
Stanley Cup odds: +1400
Record: 2-2-0, sixth in Metro
The problems: Granted, the Hurricanes are only four games into their season. It’s still strange to see them at only the .500 mark and ahead of just the Philadelphia Flyers and Columbus Blue Jackets in the Metro Division.
So, yes — it’s a small sample size. But Carolina has had some glaring inconsistencies, too. The Hurricanes are hurting themselves as the fourth-most penalized team in the league (averaging over five minutes per game), and that’s been a costly, momentum-crushing trend, taxing their 13th-ranked penalty kill (83.3%) while keeping top-end skaters like Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov from doing what they do best on the offensive end. Carolina is 19th overall offensively (3.00 goals per game), and averaging the sixth-most shots (32.8), so the opportunities to challenge opponents are clearly there. It’s a matter of the Hurricanes not being their own worst enemy.
Carolina knew going into the season that (a) goalie health and (b) goalie performance would be significant factors, and while Frederik Andersen has been good so far, his counterpart Pyotr Kochetkov has struggled. The young netminder is 1-1-0 with an .867 SV% and 3.05 GAA, compared to Andersen’s .936 SV% and 1.53 GAA. Andersen has been run aground by injuries in the past, so coach Rod Brind’Amour must be able to rely on Kotchetkov to support the veteran. That’s still a work in progress.
Another cause for concern is the roller coaster that is Carolina’s top defensive unit. Brent Burns and Jaccob Slavin were on the ice for three of four goals against in the Hurricanes’ loss to the St. Louis Blues, right after sparking Carolina to a dominant win against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Burns is nearing 40 years old, and it shows in his foot speed; carrying nearly 23 minutes per game may not be sustainable, and it will require others on Carolina’s back end to step up at some point and perhaps remove part of that pressure.
Panic meter reading: 5.5/10. The Hurricanes have kept up in every game; it’s the little mistakes they has to start cleaning up, though. Bad habits have a way of snowballing, and that’s a real worry. Eliminating bad penalties and maximizing their scoring depth — it’s defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere currently leading the team in goals, with three — will give Carolina more breathing room, and that should push the Hurricanes up the standings.
If anything, it feels like Carolina is still searching for its identity and given the short runway they’ve had into the season that’s not shocking. Time is always of the essence — but in this case at least it’s on the Hurricanes’ side.
Stanley Cup odds: +1200
Record: 2-4-0, seventh in Central
The problems: Colorado’s season began 0-4-0 for just the second time in franchise history (the other occurrence being 1998-99); it took overcoming a two-goal deficit against the Anaheim Ducks on Friday for the Avalanche to eventually earn their elusive first win of the year (in overtime, no less). Sunday’s 4-1 win over the San Jose Sharks — featuring a pair of goals from Ross Colton and three points by Cale Makar — is another step in the right direction. But Colorado has to prove it can produce positive results against the league’s would-be contenders too along the way here too.
The Avalanche are 32nd already in goals against per game (4.83), due in large part to atrocious goaltending. Aleksandar Georgiev is 1-3-0 with an .811 save percentage and 4.99 goals-against average through Colorado’s first five outings. Over those initial four losses, Colorado’s starter had let in a league-high 17 goals. All the goal-scoring magic Nathan MacKinnon could muster won’t make up for that sort of leaky netminding.
Special teams have been a hindrance as well. Colorado picked up where it left off in the second half of last season with an inconsistent penalty kill (29th in the league, at 68.4% through six games) that’s overshadowing their second-ranked power play (38.1%). Again, goaltending woes play a factor in those poor short-handed stats, but the Avalanche’s top penalty-killing unit (anchored by Makar and Colton) isn’t getting the job done either in front of Georgiev.
That said, the Avalanche are missing key pieces from the lineup, including Gabriel Landeskog, Jonathan Drouin, Valeri Nichushkin, Devon Toews and Artturi Lehkonen. Having their lineup impacted to that degree, with no way to replace it, and dealing with seriously subpar goaltending are daunting tasks. Colorado has to be up for the challenge.
Panic meter reading: 7.5/10. The Avalanche have MacKinnon and Makar, plus a fiery Mikko Rantanen. That’s a top-tier trio with game-changing potential (and it was MacKinnon, of course, who potted that OT winner against the Ducks to secure Colorado’s initial win). The Avalanche have been stingy defensively, sitting fourth best in shots against per game (25.5) and they’ve done well generating scoring opportunity up front, particularly from the slot.
That diminished scoring depth has contributed to why more chances aren’t going in (Colorado is 11th in goals, averaging 3.50 per game) but there’s a bright spot there as well: coach Jared Bednar said over the weekend he hopes Nichushkin, who is back skating on his own while completing a six-month suspension in Stage 3 of the NHL/NHLPA assistance program, will be able to return by Nov. 13.
What the Avalanche must hope for is that its goaltending will improve, too. Colorado claimed goaltender Kaapo Kahkonen off waivers over a week ago, and he was finally able to join the team on Saturday after dealing with immigration issues. Once he’s up to speed, there’s no doubt Colorado will insert him to take the edge off Georgiev. At the same time, Colorado has to push Georgiev into turning the corner, too. With a victory under his belt, now there’s reason for the goaltender to feel better about his own game and allow that to translate into stringing further wins together for Colorado from here.
The Avalanche don’t have cap space available to immediately address any areas of concern, so getting more out of the current roster is their only way to dig out of this early deficit.
Stanley Cup odds: +6000
Record: 2-3-0, eighth in Atlantic
The problems: The Red Wings are off to a glacial 2-3-0 start that includes a pair of victories over the league’s only winless team (Nashville). That’s not a ringing endorsement for where Detroit could be headed. This was supposed to be a season where the Red Wings finally punched their way back to the playoffs after being absent since 2015-16. Detroit came achingly close in 2023-24, falling just short of a postseason berth with a tie-breaking loss to Washington at the very end. The Red Wings might have hoped for some momentum to carry over into the new campaign, but it’s been a tough slog (other than when they’ve faced the Predators, naturally).
Detroit’s injured list has begun to fill up, with Tyler Motte and Christian Fischer suffering ailments already. But that’s no excuse. The Red Wings’ overall execution has lacked more than anything, particularly off the draw. Detroit is 27th in FOW% (46.4%) and they’ve seen momentum snatched away from goals scored directly off a poorly executed faceoff (see New York Rangers winger Reilly Smith‘s marker last week). Good teams have the details dialled in; Detroit is still getting there.
The Red Wings’ special teams are another issue. Detroit owns the second-worst penalty kill in the league (62.5%) and their power play is mediocre (15.8%). Those areas of the game that could boost the Red Wings aren’t coming through often enough, and it’s dragging them down. The same is true with their collective team defense, a longtime concern that’s failed to improve over time. Detroit is tied for the second-most shots against per game (34.2) and even solid goaltending from both Alex Lyon (1-1-0, .938 SV%, 2.06 GAA) and Cam Talbot (1-1-0, 907 SV% and 3.31 GAA) can’t fill the void.
Panic meter reading: 6.5/10. Detroit’s early schedule has been odd, with the two outings against Nashville and two meetings already with the Rangers. Regardless, the Red Wings are showcasing too many of the same past problems to completely say they’re on track to a different outcome than seasons past. Detroit has allowed 15 total goals in those three losses. Even with the likes of Dylan Larkin (who has three goals), Andrew Copp (same) and offseason addition Vladimir Tarasenko (two goals) sparking the offense, the Red Wings need even more hands to get on the right side of these scoresheets.
It’s really whether Detroit can go all-in defensively that will likely determine their fate (again). Expecting to outscore their other troubles — at 5-on-5 or special teams — hasn’t worked before, and won’t work this season. If Detroit can buy into what coach Derek Lalonde is preaching and keep getting capable goaltending and consistent scoring, its recipe for success could get it back in the postseason mix sooner rather than later.
Stanley Cup odds: +750
Record: 2-4-0, seventh in Pacific
The problems: Edmonton is not getting the goaltending it needs — and that’s affecting everything else. Stuart Skinner is 1-3-0 with an .851 SV% and 4.03 GAA. His backup Calvin Pickard is 1-1-0 with an .852 SV% and 3.28 GAA. Those are tough numbers to overcome at the best of times, but especially when Edmonton is also not generating a consistent amount of top-end offense.
Leon Draisaitl has three goals on the season and Connor McDavid has a goal and six points, but head coach Kris Knobloch has kept them together on a line with Zach Hyman (who has zero points through six games) and it doesn’t make sense to load up a single unit when the results are there often enough. The case in point: Edmonton had a disappointing 4-1 loss to the Dallas Stars on Saturday where the Oilers fell behind 3-0, and only Draisaitl’s late-third-period goal kept Edmonton from being shut out for the second time in six games, the first one being a 6-0 drubbing by the Winnipeg Jets in their season opener.
While Draisaitl is the Oilers’ leading scorer, he’s also been punished by Knobloch already for poorly timed penalties. And Edmonton’s special teams have been putrid as well — the power play is operating at just 6.7% (good for 30th overall) and their penalty kill is dead-last in the NHL at 55%. When you’re also averaging the fewest goals in the league (2.00) and are 27th in goals against (4.00), it’s a brutal combination.
The bottom line for Edmonton is that until its offense improves, the results won’t get better, either. It’s on Knobloch to make the right adjustments — at even strength and on the power play — so the Oilers can thrive.
Panic meter reading: 8/10. Listen, the Oilers have fooled us before. Last season Edmonton started 2-9-1 and turned things around so drastically they wound up in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. That’s not to say history can repeat itself now, though. The Oilers’ 1-4-0 start is nothing to feel good about, and shows there are an abundance of weaknesses in Edmonton’s lineup that must be addressed.
It’s not that the Oilers aren’t getting their chances. They were the better team against Dallas in the first period on Saturday, but couldn’t capitalize. The Stars took over from there and that spelled trouble for the Oilers. If they can find ways to make the most of those opportunities going forward, it’ll be a different story.
On the plus side, Edmonton’s depth has been solid. Jeff Skinner has four points in six games, Corey Perry has been his usual feisty self and there are significant signs of life on the back end. Edmonton has time to turn things around, but Knobloch must spread his talent out and let Draisaitl and McDavid drive their own lines. The goaltending and special teams must be looked into as well obviously, but what Edmonton needs more than ever is confidence. And that comes from stringing some wins together.
Stanley Cup odds: +2000
Record: 0-5-0, eighth in Central
The problems: Fun fact: no NHL team that has started 0-5-0 has reached the postseason since 2005-06. And Nashville is exactly that, boasting (?) a franchise-worst start that took another blow in Saturday’s lopsided 5-2 loss to Detroit. Suffice to say then, the Predators face an uphill battle to make the postseason.
Nashville’s new-look lineup has fallen well short of expectations in a winless stretch to open this campaign — they are the last remaining NHL team without a point, to boot — and the issues keep stacking up.
Let’s start at the beginning. Nashville is allowing the second-most goals (4.60 per game) and scoring the fewest (2.00). And that’s while the Predators are also averaging the most shots (35.4 per game) in the league. What conclusions can be drawn? Nashville’s goaltending — and ability to actually finish on their chances — are out of whack.
Juuse Saros has looked humbly human in net for the Predators, with an 0-4-0 record, .875 SV% and 3.64 GAA. Scott Wedgewood is right behind him and absolutely no better at 0-1-0 with an .800 SV% and 4.21 GAA.
Offensively the Predators haven’t looked nearly as dominant as predicted given the additions they made in the offseason. Highly prized free agent signees Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault haven’t clicked yet in the system, and that’s slowed the Predators’ attack. Stamkos didn’t score for the first time until Saturday’s loss against Detroit, and while Marchessault has four points in five games, he hasn’t been a real difference-maker out of the gate.
Nashville appears to be lacking chemistry, and head coach Andrew Brunette is at a loss already to find combinations that click.
Panic meter reading: 9.5/10. This team is in a bad spot. There’s no way to sugarcoat being the only NHL club without a point, especially when the roster has such depth of talent. Nashville’s defensive efforts haven’t been terrible, either. The Predators have allowed the ninth fewest in shots against per game (27.4), but without the saves it doesn’t mean much to be decent enough on the back end. Roman Josi is averaging over 27 minutes per game — tied for most among defenseman with Quinn Hughes — and that’s a heavy ask of the 34-year-old.
Brunette said on Saturday the Predators’ awful opening isn’t for “lack of trying,” and that’s true. Nashville is clearly putting in effort. It’s that the Predators are making big mistakes — and there’s no coming back from those on a shift-by-shift basis if your goaltending is a mess. And the more Nashville sees pucks going in, the more players are gripping their sticks too tightly — compounding those infuriating errors.
Are there silver linings? Maybe. Filip Forsberg has been solid out of the gate — he leads the team with two goals and five points — and there is a genuinely strong leadership unit in the room headed by Ryan O’Reilly, Josi and, in time, Stamkos. The fact Nashville can at least create chances is good, too.
The only solution for Nashville? Find a way to win a game. It can be the scrappiest, ugliest, least aesthetically pleasing victory. But what this group needs more than anything is just to know it can get the job done once — and confidence should build from there.
