Top pollster identifies the moment that could cost Kamala Harris the election as ‘everything froze’
Vice President Kamala Harris’s recent slump in presidential polls can be traced back to a shift in strategy that could lead to her defeat in the election, according to top pollster Frank Luntz.
In an interview with CNN on Wednesday, he said that when Harris focused on why she should be elected president, she improved in the polls.
“She had the best 60 days of any presidential candidate in modern history,” he added. “And then the moment that she turned anti-Trump and focused on him and said ‘don’t vote for me, vote against him,’ that’s when everything froze.”
In fact, two major presidential polls released in recent days show Trump gaining a slight edge over Harris with less than two week to go until Election Day.
In one of them, the Wall Street Journal‘s poll gave Trump a 2% advantage over Harris, a shift from August when Harris led by 2%. In the other, a poll from the Financial Times and the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business found that 44% of voters said they would trust Trump with the economy, while 43% said they would trust Harris, marking another reversal from earlier.
Meanwhile, a New York Times and Siena College poll released Friday showed a 48%-48% tie, with Trump erasing Harris’s prior 2% lead. A CNN poll Friday had the candidates in a 47%-47% deadlock after it showed Harris with a 1% edge earlier.
Luntz warned the shift in the Harris campaign could cost her the White House as voters demand more details about her.
“The fact is Donald Trump is defined,” he explained. “He’s not gaining, he’s not losing. He is who he is, and his vote is where it is. She is less well defined, and if she continues just to define this race as ‘vote against Trump,’ she’s going to stay where she is now and she may lose.”
Indeed, the Harris campaign’s early days were marked by “joy” and optimism. But in recent weeks, it has sharpened attacks on Trump, including dire warnings on the threat he could pose to American democracy, which was a centerpiece of President Joe Biden’s campaign before he dropped out.
And as former Trump administration officials have described him as a fascist, which the Trump campaign denied, Harris has piled on as well.
As of Friday, 538’s polling analysis gave Trump a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election versus 47 out of 100 for Harris. A week ago, Trump was at 52, and three weeks ago, Harris was in the lead with a 58-in-100 chance.
For his part, Luntz won’t make an election forecast and told NewsNation on Thursday that uncommitted voters will likely determine the winner.
“I think at this moment, in terms of committed, Trump has the advantage,” he said. “In terms of the ceiling of potential vote, Harris has the advantage, which is why I stay away from any projections. I don’t know.”
