Betting by the numbers: Commanders' Hail Mary "not great" for sportsbooks

Bettors never stopped believing in Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels, and the odds-defying rookie delivered again.

Daniels connected on a 52-yard Hail Mary to Noah Brown as time expired to lead the Commanders to an 18-15 win over the Chicago Bears on Sunday in a battle of the top two picks in the 2024 draft. The game-winning TD pass, which also covered the spread, was felt by both bettors and bookmakers across the nation.

“That was not great for us,” John Murray, executive director of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, told ESPN.

Daniels had left last week’s blowout win over the Carolina Panthers in the first half due to a rib injury, and his status remained unclear leading up to Sunday’s game against the Bears.

The line grew to as high as Chicago -3, which is where it remained until Sunday morning, prior to action on the Commanders starting to show up at sportsbooks. Daniels was eventually listed as active and cleared to play, and Washington closed as a consensus 1-point favorite.

“We took a lot of Commanders money when it became apparent Daniels was in at QB,” Murray added. “Bears [winning] by more than three was what we wanted and would have been a great result for us, but Bears by exactly three was also fine. Washington outright, not so much.”

Trailing 15-12 with seconds left, the Commanders were 35-1 at DraftKings to win the game. The sportsbook said it did take bets on Washington during the final drive, ahead of the Hail Mary. The Bears were -50,000 favorites just prior to the play.

Caesars Sportsbook was offering 22-1 on the Commanders during the final drive and took “many” bets on Washington, VP of trading Craig Mucklow said. Caesars also reported taking a $133,000 bet on the Bears at -2.5, a wager that went through a tough turn of events in the final six seconds.

The Commanders improved to 6-2 and 7-1 against the spread.

Huge underdogs continue to thrive

Eight weeks into the season, sportsbooks have been predictably calibrated on spreads. With the San Francisco 49ers covering on “Sunday Night Football,” favorites are now 62-60 ATS, according to ESPN BET odds.

That said, even that perfect balance has seen remarkable variation. With the Cleveland Browns (+7.5) and New England Patriots (+7.5) pulling off victories Sunday, underdogs of at least seven points are 9-11 outright this season — the most upset wins of that type through Week 8 since 2008, per ESPN Research.

With Monday night’s game still to come, here’s where things stand.

Indiana, BYU improbably still undefeated

Toward the end of October, college football’s legitimate dark horses begin to emerge and, this season, they’re increasingly relevant thanks to the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. This year, we’re looking at the Indiana Hoosiers and the BYU Cougars.

Both teams are undefeated, tied atop their respective conference standings and 7-1 against the spread. That’s second-best in the nation behind the Marshall Thundering Herd, the only undefeated ATS team in college football, despite their 4-3 record.

Indiana and BYU have been popular picks with the public as they’ve continued to win and cover all season. At ESPN BET, both had 77% of the tickets to cover their spreads this week, which they each did with relative ease.

At BetMGM and DraftKings, the Hoosiers’ spread was the most-bet across tickets and handle on Saturday morning, with BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee specifically pointing to Indiana as a popular pick going into Saturday’s action. BYU was BetMGM’s second-most bet moneyline by wagers.

Indiana has been the favorite in all eight of its games this season, its longest such streak to start a campaign since the 1978 FBS/FCS split. The school has covered the last seven games in a row (although, ESPN Analytics notes that Indiana has the 109th-ranked strength of schedule).

Conversely, BYU continues to see disrespect from bookmakers despite its impressive play. The Cougars closed as 2.5-point underdogs at UCF, making them just the second 7-0 or better team since 1978 to close as an underdog to a team with a losing record. With the win, they are now only the second team since 1990 to start 8-0 despite being underdogs in half of their games, according to ESPN Research.

To drive home the “dark horse” status, neither team was on ESPN BET’s “To Make the Playoff” odds board at the start of the season. Indiana debuted at +1000 on Sept. 23, while BYU first appeared at +475 on Oct. 14. They were also both major long shots to win their respective conferences, with the Hoosiers beginning the season at 300-1 to win the Big Ten and the Cougars starting at 150-1 to win the Big 12.

Odds and ends

0: That’s the number of ATS wins this season for the Air Force Falcons. They are only team to have failed to cover the spread in each of its first seven games this season.

-3.5: The Ohio State Buckeyes opened as a consensus 3.5-point road favorite over the Penn State Nittany Lions for their Nov. 2 clash. The line grew to -4 by Sunday night. Nittany Lions’ QB Drew Allar sat out the second half of Saturday’s win over the Wisconsin Badgers and was wearing a knee brace. Joey Feazel, who oversees college football odds for Caesars Sportsbook, said the line reflected that questionable status.

“It seems to be clear that no one knows that status as we have not seen any movement to either side of the line,” Feazel told ESPN on Sunday. “I expect there to be movement on the spread and total once we get some more information on Allar.”

+17: The No. 25 Vanderbilt Commodores closed as an 17-point home underdog against the Texas Longhorns on Saturday, making the Commodores the second-largest home underdog as an AP top-25 team this century. In 2005, the No. 24 Oregon Ducks were 21-point home underdogs against the top-ranked USC Trojans. The Commodores lost 27-24.

17: That’s the number of touchdowns scored by tights ends on “National Tight Ends Day,” the highest total since the 2018 inception of the “holiday.” Mark Andrews of the Baltimore Ravens (+225) was the only TE in ESPN BET’s top-10 “Anytime TD Scorer” ticket attractors, and he cashed in with a score during the third quarter of his game.

+410: Those are the odds at FanDuel on Colorado Buffaloes QB Shedeur Sanders, the current favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick at next year’s NFL draft. Miami Hurricanes QB Cam Ward has the second-best odds at +650.

$14,950.86: That was the payout for a bettor with FanDuel who hit a $50 two-leg same-game parlay on Atlanta Falcons TE Kyle Pitts and Tampa Bay Buccaneers TE Cade Otton.

$260,000: That’s how much money was wagered on Browns QB Jameis Winston, the third-most-heavily bet NFL player in Week 8, according to data provided to ESPN by Pikkit, an app that allows bettors to sync up their sportsbook accounts and track the action. Only Ravens RB Derrick Henry and Cleveland TE David Njoku attracted more money from Pikkit users.

$440,000: That was the amount of a bet with Caesars Sportsbook placed on the Browns +8.5 against the Ravens, the largest reported bet Sunday at Caesars. Cleveland upset the Ravens 29-24.