Boise State's CFP chances, Miami's state title and more
As we say goodbye to October and enter the final full month of the regular season, some teams made a big push to stay in College Football Playoff conversations this past week.
No. 15 Boise State continued its storybook run with a 29-24 win over UNLV. In what was set to be its most challenging remaining matchup, the Broncos pulled off the win. With their only loss coming to No. 1 Oregon — and by only three points — could we see a rematch between these opponents in the playoff?
After trailing in the last four minutes, No. 16 Kansas State beat Kansas on a field goal, keeping its title and playoff hopes alive. The Wildcats are 4-1 in conference play but have a big hurdle ahead with matchup against No. 11 Iowa State on Nov. 30.
Our college football experts break down key storylines and takeaways from Week 9.
The Group of 5 playoff spot is Boise State’s to lose
On Friday night at UNLV, Boise State won its most difficult remaining game, adding to its playoff resumé and cementing the Broncos as the clubhouse leader for a guaranteed spot in the CFP as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Boise State shouldn’t have to displace the No. 12-ranked team for a seat at the table, either — the Broncos are good enough that they can be ranked in the committee’s top 12 on their own merit.
Boise State’s resumé includes a win against a 7-1 Washington State team and a 6-2 UNLV team. Those alone are better wins than some other contenders have stockpiled (see: Clemson, Indiana.) The Broncos have a Heisman Trophy contender in running back Ashton Jeanty. They have a defense that has given opposing quarterbacks nightmares. And they have the best loss in the country — by a field goal at Oregon, which should be the committee’s No. 1 team. If Boise State runs the table and finishes as a one-loss Mountain West Conference champion, the Broncos will almost certainly have a chance to compete for the national title — and maybe meet Oregon again along the way. — Heather Dinich
Notre Dame continuing to benefit from Texas A&M’s success
As Texas A&M jumped ahead of LSU and began to distance itself, sending Kyle Field into a frenzy Saturday night, another group of college football fans cheered along with great interest. Notre Dame supporters weren’t merely taking pleasure in a loss for former coach Brian Kelly, they recognized that a schedule that has dragged down the Fighting Irish profile is starting to become more of a selling point. A season-opening win against Texas A&M in College Station, against what is now the only undefeated team in SEC play, is looking better and better for Notre Dame. The Irish will be rooting for the Aggies the rest of the way.
Notre Dame also helped itself with a definitive win against previously undefeated Navy, which could still win the AAC. The Irish also have Army, currently undefeated, later in the season. Although opponents such as Florida State and perhaps even USC won’t help Notre Dame’s profile, an 11-1 mark shouldn’t keep the Irish out of the CFP, as some thought it would after a Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois. That defeat continues to look worse — NIU fell to Ball State on Saturday — but good wins should outweigh bad losses, and Notre Dame has one that keeps getting better. The Irish also are stacking drama-free wins, as their past three have come by an average of 32.3 points. — Adam Rittenberg
Miami proudly proclaims state championship
Miami might not have thrown for 300 yards or scored 40 points, but what the Hurricanes did in a 36-14 win over Florida State was statement enough for coach Mario Cristobal.
So much so that he ended his news conference with a mic-drop moment.
“Critically important to go out there and beat this program and to be undefeated in the state of Florida,” Cristobal said. “I think it sends a strong message. I think all recruits, in-state and out-of-state, can now clearly see the trajectory of this program versus the trajectory of the other programs.”
He slammed his fist on the podium to further underscore his point, then left.
While those rival schools will no doubt keep what Cristobal said in the back of their minds, it is important to understand why Cristobal said what he said. When he arrived at Miami in 2022, the Seminoles were on the rise under Mike Norvell and Florida had made it to multiple New Year’s Six games under Dan Mullen.
In his first game against Florida State as head coach that season, the Seminoles won 45-3. The sting from that game provided endless motivation. Even without that result, Cristobal knew what his program needed to do in facing such a “monumental task” to get back to competing for championships.
“We knew when we came here that we were going to get our teeth kicked in early,” Cristobal said. “It’s a great example of working your butt off and keeping your head down and not worrying about all that crap that comes with rebuilds.”
Miami opened the season with an emphatic 41-17 win over Florida that served notice things would be different this year. Next came a 50-15 win over USF. Finally Saturday night, the first win over Florida State for Cristobal as a head coach. Miami is 8-0. Florida State dropped to 1-7 and is out of bowl contention, a year after winning the ACC title. Florida is 4-3, facing an end-of-season gauntlet against four top-25 teams that will make it challenging to get to six wins.
For further proof of how much Miami values being state champ, linebacker Francisco Mauigoa showed up to the postgame news conference wearing a black T-shirt that said, “We run FL,” featuring a broken spear and the mounted heads of a bull and a gator. — Andrea Adelson
Most disappointing in Big 12?
In the preseason media poll, Utah (20), Oklahoma State (14), Kansas (5) and Arizona (3) were four of the fives teams that received first-place votes (Kansas State was the other with 19). As such, they were all dreaming about the College Football Playoff. A few months later, those same four schools are a combined 3-17 in the Big 12 in what has turned into a competitive race to be considered the most disappointing team in the conference.
Preseason polls are wrong all the time, but there has rarely ever — maybe never? — been such a miscalculation of conference strength.
Conversely, BYU is 8-0 after being picked to come in 13th, while Colorado (6-2, 4-1) and Arizona State (5-2, 2-2) have taken significant steps forward after being slotted at No. 11 and last place, respectively.
There are obviously several factors in play here, but perhaps it is best a reflection of how different teams can be year over year now in college football with the lax transfer restrictions. It’s too early to know if this is instructive about what things will be like in the future, but it has made for an interesting year in the new-look Big 12. — Kyle Bonagura
Oregon looks comfortable at the top
There was no doubt that the Ducks would get up for their matchup against Ohio State a few weeks ago. But after outlasting the Buckeyes in a thriller, the comedown could have caught them off guard and led to a debilitating loss against an inferior opponent. Instead, Dan Lanning and Oregon have not let up — on a short-week trip to Purdue, the Ducks shut out the Boilermakers, and this week, they made Illinois, the 20th ranked team in the country, look helpless on both sides of the ball.
Lanning has said he doesn’t care about the Ducks being ranked No. 1, and that mindset seems to have trickled down to the rest of his team.
“Everybody wants to be at the top of the food chain. Every day we know we got a target on our back, but we don’t really care who’s coming after us,” wide receiver Tez Johnson said. “We don’t care about the number one spot. We just care about going one-and-oh at the end of the week. I mean, it is good, but we don’t really care … we just want to win football games.”
Oregon is 8-0 for the first time since 2013 and ranked No. 1 for the first time since 2012. With an offense that looks far more in sync than it did at the beginning of the year and a defense that continues to improve, it doesn’t appear to be slowing down.
Next week, the Ducks head to Michigan for what is arguably the toughest matchup remaining on their schedule, but nothing suggests they won’t be ready for any game that’s left between them and an undefeated regular season.
“I think just the way Coach Lanning has done it from the top down, everyone’s focused on a week at a time,” quarterback Dillon Gabriel said. “We’re just so focused on being team oriented because the rest will take care of itself.” — Paolo Uggetti
Farmageddon looming large
Kansas State escaped the Sunflower Showdown with a 29-27 victory Saturday night over Kansas. The Wildcats trailed with 4 minutes to go. But K-State linebacker Austin Romaine upended scrambling Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels and Brendan Mott recovered the fumble. Chris Tennant then tied a career high with a 51-yard field goal to lift the Wildcats to their 16th straight victory in the series.
The dramatic win kept K-State alive in the Big 12 title and playoff races. Going forward, the Wildcats should be considerable favorites in their next three games leading into a Nov. 30 showdown at Iowa State.
The Cyclones, who had a bye over the weekend, are undefeated and in the thick of the playoff conversation as well. If Iowa State can also take care of business, the Cyclones and Wildcats could square off in the most meaningful Farmageddon tilt in the history of college football’s longest uninterrupted rivalry (108 games). — Jake Trotter
Alabama isn’t done
During a Saturday morning chat with Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer, less than five hours before hosting his homecoming matchup against fellow scrambling top-25 SEC foe Missouri, anyone seeking a sense of panic, worry or fear for his future would’ve been disappointed. Instead, he talked very matter of fact about a pregame routine of media, a team walkthrough at the hotel and “taking care of what we can control, and that’s football. Specifically, taking care of the football.”
That is exactly what Alabama did, taking advantage of Missouri’s wounded offense to snatch three interceptions. Meanwhile, Jalen Milroe‘s first game this season without a touchdown pass (he did run for a score) was also his first game in a month without at least one pass picked off. DeBoer reminded Saturday morning before kickoff and Saturday evening after the win that Milroe “has been thrown so much change” between a new offensive playbook and the absence of so many teammates from last season’s CFP team. But he also admitted that his staff was doing a better job in more recent days of “adjusting what we do to the personnel we have, especially a quarterback that in our opinion is the best in the nation from a football and leadership standpoint.”
Even with the two losses that everyone in Nick Saban-spoiled Tuscaloosa has had to make their own adjustments to, ESPN analytics say the Tide still have a 53% chance to return to the CFP. No one is more aware of that than the head coach and team that appears to be emerging from a roller-coaster October with the most stability it has enjoyed in quite a while. — Ryan McGee
