Why Aaron Judge has disappeared at exactly the wrong time for the Yankees

NEW YORK — Another World Series game, another rough night at the plate for Aaron Judge. After he went 0-for-3 with another strikeout in the New York Yankees‘ Game 3 loss Monday night, New York finds itself in a familiar spot: waiting for its star slugger to break out.

“He’s one swing away,” Yankees hitting coach James Rowson told ESPN on Monday. “I know it’s a big story, but from my standpoint, this guy is one of the best hitters to ever play the game. On any given night, the whole narrative gets rewritten.”

But with the Los Angeles Dodgers one win away from a World Series sweep, New York’s superstar slugger is running out of opportunities to flip the script. And those around the sport watching from the scouts’ seats, the executive offices or even just in front of their television sets at home see a specific problem that needs to be solved: Judge is chasing too many pitches outside the zone, and L.A. is taking advantage of it.

“The Dodgers are feeding him spin, spin, spin that he is chasing,” an American League scout told ESPN. “Then the fastball looks harder than it actually is, so he is out of timing. He needs to stop worrying about the big moment and just go with those sliders and take them into right field and the right-center-field gap.”

Handling anything thrown with break or spin has been Judge’s Achilles’ heel all postseason. According to ESPN Research, he’s hitting just .071 on breaking pitches in October, compared to .258 during the regular season. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate on those pitches is a whopping 58.5% compared to 39.8% from March through September.

Every time he flails at another breaking pitch for a strikeout, it allows the Dodgers to keep attacking with the same plan instead of having to challenge him with heat.

Judge is still doing damage off fastballs — when he sees them. He’s hitting .364 with a 1.429 OPS against pitches thrown 95 mph or faster in the playoffs, but so far this month, Judge has seen 6% fewer fastballs than he did during the regular season, and the frustration of not getting pitches he can drive is becoming obvious to observers.

“I think he might be pressing a little bit,” 2007 National League MVP Ryan Howard said on the field before Game 3. “Right now, I think he’s just in his head. He knows what pitch they’re trying to get him out on, and when you’re swinging and missing it, you’re kind of forcing it. Just have to relax a little.”

Despite the struggles, Judge’s manager has his back. Boone has made it clear that he is not considering moving Judge up or down in the lineup: “That’s our guy, and there’s pressure in the Series, whatever spot you’re hitting.”

One NL executive agreed with Boone’s mindset: “If this was the regular season, I could see moving him up to leadoff to get him going, but I don’t think Boone should do that. At this time of year, you have to believe in and stick with your best players. He’s the best of the best.”

So with the season on the line, can Judge rediscover his MVP form? Patience might be the key.

“He needs to get them back in the zone or take some walks,” the NL executive said. “How many does he have in the postseason?”

Judge has walked eight times this postseason but only twice in the past seven games after he walked an MLB-leading 133 times during the regular season. But the thing that could most help ignite Judge is about more than drawing free passes to first base — it’s about making pitchers come to him.

“Just wait for that pitch as long as it’s in the zone,” Howard said of the advice he’d give to Judge.

With the Yankees needing to pull off the seemingly impossible — winning four straight games to complete a World Series comeback — maybe Judge will finally get the one pitch that gets him going.

“He’s big enough, strong enough, to hit the ball out of any part of the ballpark.” an NL scout said. “He’s got to use the whole field. When he starts to use the whole field and up the middle, you’re going to see the Aaron Judge you saw all year long.”

The Yankees just have to hope they’ll still be playing long enough to see it happen.