UFC real or not: Title shot stakes this weekend? Topuria for Fighter of the Year?
Don’t look now, but the UFC’s 2024 calendar is nearly complete.
November brings multiple Fight Night cards, a pay-per-view event in UFC 308 and some new rules going into effect. In December, fight fans get one additional Fight Night and pay-per-view (UFC 309) until the holidays come and the calendar resets for 2025.
Big questions still loom for some of the sport’s top stars. Can former champions Brandon Moreno and Rose Namajunas find their way back into the title picture? Did Ilia Topuria lock up the men’s Fighter of the Year award? Will the removal of the 12-to-6 elbow ban be a difference-maker in the UFC?
Andreas Hale, Brett Okamoto and Jeff Wagenheim break these questions down, starting with the main event in Edmonton.
The men’s flyweight division needs a tetralogy between Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja
Okamoto: Not real at all. Moreno is the closest thing the division has to a star, but he’s 0-3 against Pantoja and his stock is the lowest it’s been in years due to back-to-back losses and extended time off. He’s only 30 and has the skill and charisma to make us care about that fight again, but not anytime soon.
Wagenheim: I’ll go with “surreal.” Wouldn’t it be wild if Moreno were booked for a fourth fight with Pantoja, considering he’s 0-3 against the champ? If he loses that one, Moreno could fight Deiveson Figueiredo for a fourth time. No doubt Moreno would prefer a third championship reign, but if that’s not in the cards, he could settle for being a novelty: the only fighter with two tetralogies.
Hale: Not real. As it stands right now, Pantoja is welcoming Kai Asakura to the UFC in December, Kai Kara-France appears to be next in line, Brandon Royval just jumped into the title picture and Moreno has his hands full with Amir Albazi. A lot of things have to happen for us to feel like the division needs a fourth fight between Pantoja and Moreno. If it has to happen because Moreno forces his way into it, that’s fine. But I don’t think anybody is begging for that fight right now.
Winner of Erin Blanchfield vs. Namajunas would be favored over Valentina Shevchenko
Hale: Not real. Fiorot handled Namajunas and Blanchfield with unanimous decision wins where her striking reigned superior. With striking being Shevchenko’s primary calling card, it would be difficult to see either Namajunas or Blanchfield favored in a title fight against her. Alexa Grasso had the perfect combination of striking and wrestling to take the title away from Shevchenko and battle her to a draw in the rematch, but oddsmakers didn’t see her as an overwhelming favorite in those fights. After what Shevchenko did to Grasso in the third fight, it’s hard to see anybody favored to beat her.
Okamoto: Not real. If Blanchfield were to go out there and thoroughly dominate Namajunas, the betting line could be very close. But Shevchenko just showed again that her grappling is strong. Namajunas is one of the best of all time, but she’s still viewed as undersized at 125 pounds and I’d imagine she’d be a big underdog against Shevchenko.
Wagenheim: Not real — unless … The assumption is that Saturday’s winner would be next in line for Shevchenko, which I doubt. But if that’s the case, I don’t believe either Blanchfield nor Namajunas could handle the champ. The clock is ticking, though, and Shevchenko turns 37 in March. If Blanchfield, 25, is given a little more time to sharpen the standup game that was exploited by Manon Fiorot in March, she might close the gap. But only if she and Father Time gang up on Shevchenko.
If no grappling were allowed, Derrick Lewis would win the heavyweight title
1:21
Derrick Lewis celebrates in hilarious fashion after TKO win in main event
Derrick Lewis parades around the Octagon in just his underwear after finishing Rodrigo Nascimento in the main event of UFC Fight Night.
Wagenheim: Not real or even based in reality. The sport is called mixed martial arts, so what are we doing here? Sure, Lewis would fare better if wrestling and jiu-jitsu were shelved and the big guy was tasked with simply flinging those ham hock fists of his. But if we want to give Lewis his best shot at supremacy, we should remove all combat disciplines and make heavyweight fighting a battle of wits. No-pants Lewis would be the GOAT.
Hale: Not real. Lewis is the UFC’s knockout king, but if grappling weren’t allowed, he would have still been stopped by Gane, Tai Tuivasa and Sergei Pavlovich. Of course, banning grappling would give Lewis a better shot at becoming a champion, but the rules would certainly favor Gane over just about any other heavyweight outside of Aspinall. Lewis would have a better chance, but there are better strikers in the land of the giants.
Okamoto: Unfortunately for “The Black Beast,” no. Fun to consider, but but I still don’t think he’d win a championship. Tom Aspinall would be king (he’s won plenty of fights without grappling already). Ciryl Gane, whom Lewis has already lost to, would be a nightmare. Even with no grappling, Lewis would still be characterized as a fan favorite, which is just fine. He’s had a very fun, lucrative career as that.
Ilia Topuria is the front-runner for men’s Fighter of the Year
1:03
Ilia Topuria celebrates with Sergio Ramos after retaining featherweight belt
Ilia Topuria finds Sergio Ramos and celebrates in style after his KO win against Max Holloway to retain his featherweight belt.
Hale: Real. While we were all enamored by Pereira’s remarkable run in 2024, none of his three wins came against opponents that have resided for an extended period on the pound-for-pound list. Topuria flattening Volkanovski was incredibly impressive, but being the first man to knock out Holloway in his lauded career enters him into another stratosphere. Unlike Volkanovski, who had been knocked out by Islam Makhachev just a fight prior, Holloway was coming off a stunning knockout of violent slugger Justin Gaethje in a heavier weight class. And Topuria was still able to dispatch of the future Hall of Famer. The race is over. Topuria is the man.
Okamoto: Not real. For me, he is the No. 1 pick. Pereira has been unbelievable and I can barely even comprehend his ability to take the fights he has while dealing with injuries, travel, short notices, etc. Earlier this year, I’d say there was no shot he wouldn’t be the easy pick. But Topuria knocking out the two best featherweights of all time, in the fashion he did, trumps Pereira’s activity. But even though I believe it should be Topuria, my gut tells me the majority will rule with Pereira.
Wagenheim: Real. Please don’t tell Pereira I said this about him, but by my math, his three knockout wins in 2024 do not add up to a total impact greater than Topuria’s two. Pereira defeated a solid trio — Khalil Rountree Jr. and two former champions, JiYí Procházka and Jamal Hill — but Topuria beat a pair of all-time greats, Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. Strength of schedule matters.
No middleweight would be favored against Khamzat Chimaev
Wagenheim: Real. It’s hard to fathom that the champion, Dricus Du Plessis, as well as former champs Israel Adesanya and Sean Stickland would all be underdogs against a fighter with just one top-10 win in the division, but after witnessing Chimaev’s quick destruction of Robert Whittaker last weekend, I don’t see anyone stopping him.
Hale: Real. After Chimaev crushed Whittaker’s jaw without taking a single punch, “Borz” has catapulted himself into a league of his own. Fighters have bad nights at the office, but there was nothing Whittaker could do to prevent what transpired in Abu Dhabi. It was a frightening reminder why Chimaev was being called a future world champion when he burst onto the scene in 2020. Du Plessis is the king of the mountain and seems to always find a way to win, but it’s hard to believe that anybody would be convinced that he could beat Chimaev. As for the rest of the division? Nah.
Okamoto: Real. This is a good question, definitely one that gave me pause. I would think Chimaev is someone who makes oddsmakers nervous. He’s looked unbeatable at times, but he’s also dealt with serious medical issues and has noticeably gassed in three-round fights. What happens if and when he makes it to the fifth round? But yeah, with the trump card that he has in that world-class wrestling, it’s impossible not to favor him against anyone in that division, in my opinion.
Allowing the 12-to-6 elbow will be the most impactful new rule in the UFC
Okamoto: Not real. It wouldn’t surprise me if fans don’t even notice the change. The biggest change is for the referees, relief that never again will they be asked to determine in real time whether there was a slight angle to an elbow just thrown. It erases any chance of a bogus DQ, but does it add a truly significant opportunity for offense? I tend to lean “no.”
Wagenheim: Not real. Whenever the 12-to-6 rule is brought up, you’re guaranteed to hear about the Jon Jones disqualification. We’re a month shy of 15 years since that Matt Hamill fight, and we’re still talking about it. Fifteen years! Why does it keep coming up? Because even for longtime followers of MMA, it’s the only time we can recall a fight being impacted by the rule. By contrast, the new rule narrowing the standard for what qualifies as a downed opponent is a game changer. It’s a highlight reel — and a concussion — waiting to happen.
Hale: Not real, unless your name is Jon Jones. The most impactful rule will be allowing knees and kicks to a downed opponent. And it’s not even close. Fighters have been mischievously getting away with being “grounded” simply by placing a hand on the canvas. It’s prevented plenty of fighters from being kicked in the face. Until now. Once the muscle memory of fighters erodes and their brains compute the new rules, you will see several highlight-reel knockouts where a hunched-over fighter thinks he or she is safe by placing his hand on the mat only to get the lights put out by a brutal knee or kick to the face.
