Is Anthony Richardson a long shot to reclaim his QB1 role with the Colts?

INDIANAPOLIS — Twenty-four hours after he was benched following his 10th career start, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson returned to the team’s headquarters and struck an optimistic tone.

He greeted a crowd of waiting reporters with a smile, not unlike the one he flashed the night he was drafted with the fourth overall selection 18 months ago. Then, Richardson outlined his next steps.

“It’s just another opportunity to grow, look back and just reflect on things I could have done better for the team. … And just focus on that,” he said.

Richardson, who was replaced by Joe Flacco for Sunday night’s 21-13 road loss to the Minnesota Vikings, went on to say he believes he’ll have another chance to ascend to the team’s starting quarterback role. Colts coach Shane Steichen helped plant the seed that Richardson might have a second act in Indy, insisting the franchise isn’t done with him.

“Not giving up on Anthony by any means,” Steichen said. “He’s a young player with a ton of talent and he’ll use this time to continue to develop and grow as a professional.”

Flacco struggled against the Vikings, completing 16 of 27 passes for 179 yards without a touchdown. He threw an interception and was sacked three times. The Colts produced season lows in offensive points (six), yards (227) and first downs (13).

But when asked if Flacco remains the starter, Steichen said: “Right now, yes.”

If history is any indication, Richardson faces very long odds to regain his status as the Colts’ long-term starter.

Young NFL quarterbacks who lose their starting roles almost never reclaim their jobs, at least not with the same team and certainly not under the same coaching staff or front office.

Whether Richardson can buck the trend remains to be seen.

According to ESPN Research, no quarterback drafted in the top 10 since 2000 has lost his job to a benching with his original team then permanently reclaimed that starting job with the club.

There are numerous examples of redemption stories, including Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold, who is having a career year. But Darnold, the third overall pick in the 2018 draft, is also on his fourth team.

In fact, quarterback comeback stories almost always happen in a different uniform.

Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions and Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks are players who changed teams before reclaiming their status as long-term starting quarterbacks.

Given how rare a benched starter finds his way back, Steichen was asked whether he believed that could happen with Richardson in Indianapolis.

“I can’t predict the future,” he said. “I really can’t. But we’re not losing faith in him.”

One NFL executive who spoke on the condition of anonymity did attempt to predict what’s next, telling ESPN, “I think [Richardson] will be there next year, and they’ll try to start him but have a backup or bridge [QB] they believe can take over if it doesn’t work.”

If Richardson fails at that point, the executive said, the Colts would likely trade him.

That would be a departure from how these situations typically play out. But some differences in Richardson’s situation should be noted.

He is a historical outlier for his position. No quarterback drafted in the first round has had fewer college starts than Richardson’s 13 at the University of Florida (Mitch Trubisky also had 13 when he was the No. 2 pick in 2017 by the Chicago Bears). Richardson is also very young. He was drafted at 20 years old, and at 22, remained the NFL’s youngest starting quarterback before his benching.

Internally, the Colts are viewing the benching as something of a timeout for Richardson.

According to multiple sources, it’s being framed as an opportunity for him to improve his game preparation and better understand the gravity of the job, an area the team says he has been lacking. This, sources said, was even more a factor in the decision than Richardson’s on-field performance.

Whether such expectations were previously communicated to Richardson is less clear. Richardson was surprised by the benching, according to a source close to Richardson, because he did not realize he was falling short in this area.

Richardson’s 10 starts represent a significantly smaller sample size than many top-10 picks who lost their jobs. Even Josh Rosen, who is considered among the biggest draft busts, started 13 games for the Arizona Cardinals as a rookie in 2018 before the team moved on from the 10th overall draft choice.

Zach Wilson, the New York Jets’ 2021 second overall pick, started 22 games in New York before the team hit the eject button and traded for Aaron Rodgers last year. Bryce Young, the Carolina Panthers’ No. 1 overall pick last year, started 18 games with the team before he was benched in Week 3 of this season. He became the starter again after veteran Andy Dalton suffered a thumb injury, but his future in Carolina remains unclear. He did lead the Panthers to a 23-22 win over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday.

By comparison, Richardson had four starts as a rookie before a season-ending injury, and six starts this season before getting the hook.

That might help explain why the locker-room reaction to Richardson’s benching has ranged from surprise to confusion.

“It’s a crazy situation, and I still have a bunch of faith in AR and I know that when he gets his next opportunity that he’s going to do well,” All-Pro guard and captain Quenton Nelson said. “Yeah, I was surprised.”

The move signified the Colts’ revolving door at quarterback might not be done spinning. When Richardson started in Week 1 this season, he became the first Colts QB since Andrew Luck in 2015-16 to start consecutive season openers.

Asked if he was frustrated by the constant quarterback turnover in the organization, center Ryan Kelly, the longest-tenured current player and another captain, said, “I’d be lying to you if I said no.” He added that he was “a little surprised” at the benching.

But the decision, at least for the short term, has been made. Now, the question is what happens to Richardson?

“I’m going to still prepare as if I am the starter,” he said. “I feel like there is an opportunity for me to step back on the field, and when it does present itself, I’m going to take advantage of it.”

Only time will tell whether that opportunity comes with the Colts or some other team.