Trump’s odds on prediction markets surge near 100% as election results tilt his way
Betting markets are pricing in another presidential term for Donald Trump with odds nearing 100% early Wednesday morning.
Reliably Republican and Democratic states have fallen into Donald Trump’s and Kamala Harris’s columns. But top swing states North Carolina and Georgia were called for Trump, increasing his likelihood of victory.
According to Kalshi, Trump’s odds of winning jumped to 95% from 57% at the start of the day. On PredictIt, a contract for Trump winning the election leapt to 94 cents from 54 cents on Monday. On the IBKR Forecast Trader from Interactive Brokers, Trump’s odds soared to 97% from 59% at the start of the day.
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, showed Trump’s chances had shot up to 98% Tuesday evening from 62% early in the morning.
Meanwhile, financial markets have also started to price in a Trump victory, as the dollar, Treasury yields, Bitcoin, and shares of Trump Media and Technology took off in after-hours trading.
The New York Times election tracker gives Trump an 91% chance of victory, and the Washington Post’s forecast says he is slightly favored to win the electoral college.
Last week and over the weekend, prediction markets had shown strong momentum for Harris, who even took the lead briefly on a few exchanges.
Bolstering Harris’s prospects was Saturday’s closely watched Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted by Selzer & Co. that showed Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters.
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