Alabama at LSU: Turnover battle could turn the tide

In yet another big SEC battle that could have plenty of ramifications on the College Football Playoff, the 11th-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide visit the No. 14 LSU Tigers on Saturday night in Baton Rouge.

Alabama was No. 11 in the first CFP rankings released Tuesday, while LSU was on the outside lookin gin at No. 15.

Both teams are 6-2 overall, but LSU has the edge in the SEC standings, sitting at 3-1 in conference play with Alabama 3-2. The Tigers had won six straight before suffering a 38-23 loss at Texas A&M two weeks ago in a game dominated by the Aggies in the second half. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide blanked Missouri 34-0 in their most recent game two Saturdays back.

As things stand entering their Week 11 matchup, LSU is 10-1 to win the SEC and Alabama is 20-1. Georgia (+160) and Texas (2-1) lead the way in odds. Despite the current SEC edge, LSU Is 50-1 to win the national championship (and +190 to make the CFP), while Alabama is 18-1 (-140).

Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday on ABC/ESPN+.

Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

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The lines

Spread: Alabama -3
Moneyline: Alabama -145, LSU +125
Over/under: 58.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

First-half spread: Alabama -1.5 (-105), LSU +1.5 (-115)
First-half moneyline: Alabama -135, LSU +105
First-half total points: 27.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

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Maldonado’s pick: No. 11 Alabama -3 (-105) at No. 14 LSU

Alabama’s defense is a pickpocket on game day, always in position to swipe away the ball. Its significant improvement in turnover margin and ball security could be a critical factor on the road Saturday night against LSU.

Entering Week 11, Alabama is fifth in team takeaways, a dramatic improvement from last season when it finished 63rd. The Crimson Tide defense has been particularly effective recently, generating 10 takeaways in their last three games. In contrast, LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has thrown seven interceptions in his last four starts, despite facing pressure on only 24% of his dropbacks this season.

In a what is projected to be a close game, this trend — if it continues — is a potential decisive factor. Alabama’s ability to protect the ball and create takeaways could give the Tide the advantage in controlling time of possession and field position. Against an LSU team that is struggling on defense, especially against big plays, winning the turnover battle would be a boon to Alabama covering the 3-point spread.

Alabama has some of the nation’s top defensive backs, including Domani Jackson, Malachi Moore and Keon Sabb. Their collective versatility, athleticism and coverage skills make Alabama’s secondary a disruptive force in college football.

LSU’s offensive predictability could also lead to turnovers. The Tigers lack a strong ground game, ranking 110th in rushing offense success rate. That means less pressure on Alabama’s front seven, which had previously struggled against mobile quarterbacks and effective run games. With the Tigers heavily relying on passing (61% passing-play percentage, fifth-highest in the nation), Alabama’s defense can focus on defending the air attack, allowing the Tide to tailor their defensive strategy more effectively. LSU’s pass-heavy approach could create more interception opportunities, aligning well with Alabama’s “Swarm Defense” philosophy that emphasizes creating turnovers.

With LSU’s struggling run game, Nussmeier is often put in situations where he feels he needs to “stand on his freakin’ head” and make big plays through the air, as coach Brian Kelly said after the season-opening loss to USC, which has led to forcing throws into tight coverage.

Some of his interceptions have come when LSU is trailing and trying to mount a comeback, forcing riskier throws. If the Tigers find themselves playing from behind, showing a bit of a “fumble-and-stumble” approach in ball security as of late, the Tide could lock this game down by capitalizing on turnover opportunities.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• LSU is 3-1 outright as home underdog under Brian Kelly (6-2 outright in its last eight overall as home underdog).

• Alabama is 4-1 ATS in last four trips to Baton Rouge; the only non-cover was its most recent trip in 2022.

• Alabama is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games when the spread is between +3 and -3 (spread opened Alabama -2.5).

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