NHL Power Rankings: Jets stay on top, plus every team's points pace vs. preseason projection
The 2024-25 NHL season turned one month old this week. That’s too small of a sample to draw too many conclusions, right?
Forget it. For this edition of the Power Rankings, we’ll be taking a look at the preseason over/under point total futures from ESPN BET compared to each team’s current points pace. Which teams are the furthest off of their projections?
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday, which generates our master list here.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Nov. 7. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 92.86%
Preseason O/U: 95.5
Current points pace: 152.3
The Jets were not believed to be an all-time great team heading into this season, and yet here we are. Led by balanced scoring and an all-world goalie in Connor Hellebuyck, this is the most complete team after one month.
Next seven days: vs. DAL (Nov. 9), @ NYR (Nov. 12), @ TB (Nov. 14)
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 83.33%
Preseason O/U: 100.5
Current points pace: 136.7
Reports of the Canes’ demise have been greatly exaggerated. Despite a talent drain in free agency this summer, the team maintains its grip on a top spot in the Metro Division.
Next seven days: @ COL (Nov. 9), @ VGK (Nov. 11), @ UTA (Nov. 13)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 70.83%
Preseason O/U: 100.5
Current points pace: 116.2
Although some pundits wondered why the Rangers were so quiet this offseason as other contenders made big additions, the reigning Presidents’ Trophy winners have thus far proved that retaining the same recipe was the right call.
Next seven days: @ DET (Nov. 9), vs. WPG (Nov. 12), vs. SJ (Nov. 14)
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 75.00%
Preseason O/U: 102.5
Current points pace: 123.0
What Stanley Cup hangover? Not only has Sam Reinhart continued scoring as if he has another contract to negotiate next summer, but it appears the patience the franchise had with Spencer Knight has paid off, to the tune of a 3-1-0 record, 2.79 goals-against average and .902 save percentage.
Next seven days: vs. PHI (Nov. 9), vs. NJ (Nov. 12), vs. NJ (Nov. 14)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 76.92%
Preseason O/U: 93.5
Current points pace: 126.2
Kirill Kaprizov continues to produce — with 21 points through 12 games — and if the Wild continue on this trajectory, the voters for the major awards should make long-awaited notice of him too.
Next seven days: @ ANA (Nov. 8), @ CHI (Nov. 10), vs. MTL (Nov. 14)
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 75.00%
Preseason O/U: 89.5
Current points pace: 123.0
This was supposed to be the era when the Caps existed solely to be the stage for Alex Ovechkin to chase Wayne Gretzky’s record. No one told them, and they appear poised to prove last season’s playoff berth was no fluke.
Next seven days: vs. PIT (Nov. 8), @ STL (Nov. 9), vs. TOR (Nov. 13)
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 73.08%
Preseason O/U: 97.5
Current points pace: 119.8
“Life finds a way,” as we learned in the Jurassic Park movies. In this case, it’s the Golden Knights finding a way to stay near the top of the standings despite constant flux in their roster.
Next seven days: @ SEA (Nov. 8), vs. CAR (Nov. 11), @ ANA (Nov. 13)
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 66.67%
Preseason O/U: 103.5
Current points pace: 109.3
The current pace is a bit behind last season’s total, but some Stars have yet to really begin scoring this season. Once they do, look out.
Next seven days: @ WPG (Nov. 9), @ PIT (Nov. 11), vs. BOS (Nov. 14)
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 63.33%
Preseason O/U: 96.5
Current points pace: 103.9
A third straight first-round playoff loss to the Oilers portended perhaps not the greatest season upcoming for L.A. But the early returns have been strong — despite being without veteran defenseman Drew Doughty.
Next seven days: vs. CBJ (Nov. 9), @ CGY (Nov. 11), @ COL (Nov. 13)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 62.50%
Preseason O/U: 101.5
Current points pace: 102.5
A few hiccups aside, the Devils are in a much better place than recent seasons thanks to the investment made in goaltending and defense.
Next seven days: @ NYI (Nov. 9), vs. SJ (Nov. 10), @ FLA (Nov. 12), @ FLA (Nov. 14)
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 70.83%
Preseason O/U: 99.5
Current points pace: 116.2
The goal differential (plus-3) isn’t what the team would like to see — nor is Elias Pettersson‘s slow start — but the Canucks are tracking ahead of projections in the standings.
Next seven days: vs. EDM (Nov. 9), vs. CGY (Nov. 12), vs. NYI (Nov. 14)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 53.57%
Preseason O/U: 98.5
Current points pace: 87.9
Although the Lightning are currently in playoff position in the Atlantic, they are a bit behind their projection.
Next seven days: vs. WPG (Nov. 14)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 57.14%
Preseason O/U: 102.5
Current points pace: 93.7
Another Atlantic team in the playoff mix but behind projection, the Leafs could be without Auston Matthews in the short term as he deals with an upper-body injury.
Next seven days: vs. DET (Nov. 8), vs. MTL (Nov. 9), vs. OTT (Nov. 12), @ WSH (Nov. 13)
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 57.14%
Preseason O/U: 81.5
Current points pace: 93.7
One of the surprises of the first month, the Flames are easily outpacing their Battle of Alberta rivals — though one would be hard-pressed to find anyone outside Calgary who doesn’t believe the Oilers will catch them by season’s end.
Next seven days: @ BUF (Nov. 9), vs. LA (Nov. 11), @ VAN (Nov. 12)
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 46.15%
Preseason O/U: 90.5
Current points pace: 75.7
The Sens have cooled a bit since a 4-2-0 start. Nevertheless, the vibes are strong, and make us feel this team could remain in the battle for a playoff spot.
Next seven days: @ BOS (Nov. 9), @ TOR (Nov. 12), vs. PHI (Nov. 14)
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 50.00%
Preseason O/U: 86.5
Current points pace: 82.0
The sportsbooks had modest expectations for the Blues this season, and the club has pretty much matched them.
Next seven days: vs. WSH (Nov. 9), vs. BOS (Nov. 12), @ BUF (Nov. 14)
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 46.43%
Preseason O/U: 108.5
Current points pace: 76.1
The Oilers are well behind their expected point total. And yet, if there’s one team that can turn things around, it’s this one. After all, they pulled a similar trick last season.
Next seven days: @ VAN (Nov. 9), vs. NYI (Nov. 12), vs. NSH (Nov. 14)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 53.57%
Preseason O/U: 87.5
Current points pace: 87.9
The expectation was that the UHC could be on the playoff bubble in Year 1, and a month in, they’re in range. Will the front office push some trade chips to the middle to add some more veteran help?
Next seven days: @ NSH (Nov. 9), vs. CAR (Nov. 13)
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 42.86%
Preseason O/U: 102.5
Current points pace: 70.3
Another juggernaut that is well off expected points pace, at least the injury to Cale Makar appears to be a short-term blip as opposed to an extended absence.
Next seven days: vs. CAR (Nov. 9), vs. NSH (Nov. 11), vs. LA (Nov. 13)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 50.00%
Preseason O/U: 99.5
Current points pace: 82.0
The Jeremy Swayman contract drama did not do anyone any favors, but is he also the cause of the short-circuiting of the team’s secondary scoring?
Next seven days: vs. OTT (Nov. 9), @ STL (Nov. 12), @ DAL (Nov. 14)
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 54.17%
Preseason O/U: 90.5
Current points pace: 88.8
A carry-over trend from 2023-24? Cam Talbot started off strong for the Kings last season, only to struggle thereafter. Can he maintain this season’s optimistic first month?
Next seven days: @ TOR (Nov. 8), vs. NYR (Nov. 9), @ PIT (Nov. 13)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 50.00%
Preseason O/U: 69.5
Current points pace: 82.0
For some teams, an 82-point pace would not be that encouraging. For the Blue Jackets, it’s fantastic.
Next seven days: @ LA (Nov. 9), @ ANA (Nov. 10), @ SEA (Nov. 12)
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 46.43%
Preseason O/U: 88.5
Current points pace: 76.1
One of these seasons, the Sabres are going to return to the playoffs. It might still be this one, but they’ll need to vastly improve on their current trajectory.
Next seven days: vs. CGY (Nov. 9), vs. MTL (Nov. 11), vs. STL (Nov. 14)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 50.00%
Preseason O/U: 91.5
Current points pace: 82.0
The Isles’ failure to launch last season led to the firing of Lane Lambert, hiring of Patrick Roy, and a run to the playoffs. Can Roy turn them around again this season?
Next seven days: vs. NJ (Nov. 9), @ EDM (Nov. 12), @ VAN (Nov. 14)
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 39.29%
Preseason O/U: 87.5
Current points pace: 64.4
The Kraken are 21st in scoring goals this season, and tied for 19th in preventing them. One of those two factors will need to change for them to get back on pace.
Next seven days: vs. VGK (Nov. 8), vs. CBJ (Nov. 12), vs. CHI (Nov. 14)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 40.00%
Preseason O/U: 90.5
Current points pace: 65.6
Thanks to Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, Penguins fans at least have some milestones to observe this season. But a playoff run seems remote at this juncture.
Next seven days: @ WSH (Nov. 8), vs. DAL (Nov. 11), vs. DET (Nov. 13)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 36.67%
Preseason O/U: 73.5
Current points pace: 60.1
Will the Blackhawks finish higher in Year 2 of the Connor Bedard era than Year 1? For now, they are trending slightly ahead of the 52 points with which they finished 2023-24.
Next seven days: vs. MIN (Nov. 10), @ SEA (Nov. 14)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 32.14%
Preseason O/U: 98.5
Current points pace: 52.7
No team is further behind its preseason points projection than the Predators — and it’s not particularly close. A team this talented should not be in this spot.
Next seven days: vs. UTA (Nov. 9), @ COL (Nov. 11), @ EDM (Nov. 14)
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 41.67%
Preseason O/U: 72.5
Current points pace: 68.3
The Ducks are about what most thought they’d be this season, with a number of young players still learning the ropes at the NHL level.
Next seven days: vs. MIN (Nov. 8), vs. CBJ (Nov. 10), vs. VGK (Nov. 13)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 35.71%
Preseason O/U: 76.5
Current points pace: 58.6
There are some good things happening in Montreal, but seemingly not enough of them to climb far out of the Atlantic Division basement just yet.
Next seven days: @ TOR (Nov. 9), @ BUF (Nov. 11), @ MIN (Nov. 14)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 39.29%
Preseason O/U: 85.5
Current points pace: 64.4
Was the 2023-24 season an aberration? It would appear so based on the returns so far in 2024-25. At least Matvei Michkov is fun to watch (when he’s not a healthy scratch).
Next seven days: @ FLA (Nov. 9), vs. SJ (Nov. 11), @ OTT (Nov. 14)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 33.33%
Preseason O/U: 63.5
Current points pace: 54.7
The Sharks aren’t world-beaters again, but they’re icing a competitive team this season, and help is on the way thanks to the NHL’s No. 1 prospect pipeline.
Next seven days: @ NJ (Nov. 10), @ PHI (Nov. 11), @ NYR (Nov. 14)
