Can a goaltender win the Calder Trophy this season?

SEATTLE — Dustin Wolf has faced a number of questions over the past seven years:

Is he really that good? Can a smaller goalie be trusted when every team wants a bigger option in net? Can he replicate his WHL success in the AHL? Can his AHL success be parlayed into giving the Calgary Flames a franchise goalie to win games and get into the playoffs?

Wolf now faces another question: Could he or someone else in this season’s rookie class become the first goalie in more than a decade to win the Calder Trophy?

“I had no idea,” Wolf said of the 15-year gap since the last Calder-winning goalie. “But you know what? My job is to try to stop as many pucks as I can and try to help the team win games. If the extra stuff comes along with that, then, it’s just an extra bonus.”

Steve Mason was the last goalie to win the NHL’s award for rookie of the year, in the 2008-09 season. Mason went 33-20-7 with a 2.27 goals-against average and a .916 save percentage, playing a crucial role in the Columbus Blue Jackets‘ postseason berth. Since then, the Calder has been a forward-centric award, with 11 of the past 15 winners being a center or winger.

There have been two goaltenders who have finished second in Calder voting since Mason won the award: the St. Louis Blues‘ Jordan Binnington in 2018-19 and Edmonton Oilers‘ Stuart Skinner in 2022-23. But there was a major gulf in first-place votes for Binnington (18 to Elias Pettersson‘s 151) and Skinner (24 to Matty Beniers‘ 160).

The Calder has been historically dominated by forwards, with 62 winning the award first introduced during the 1932-33 season. By comparison, just 16 goalies have won. Yet the current 15-year drought since Mason won it is the longest. The previous long was 11 years, from 1972-73 to 1982-83.

In the time since Mason won the Calder, the conversation surrounding goaltending continues to evolve.

There are more data points and metrics beyond traditional statistics that can be used to evaluate their performances. More front offices continue to use tandems rather than the conventional approach of one goalie playing more than 60 games. After having some drafts in the early 2000s who saw as many as four go in the first round, there are fewer goalies who are first-round picks. Even the economics around goalies is in flux, with teams investing anywhere between $1.9 million in cap space to $14.5 million in their tandems.

Now there’s another talking point around the sport when it comes to goalies: Why hasn’t one won the Calder in 15 years?

“It’s really hard. You don’t see too many rookie goalies come in and just light it up right away,” 2020 Calder Trophy winner and Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar said. “You have to be set up in the right position. A lot of times rookie goalies don’t play on teams with the best defense and that doesn’t support their stats. I think there’s a lot of aspects that go into it.”

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ESPN SPOKE TO an agent with clients who have won the Calder and/or were finalists, along with an experienced Calder voter, an NHL goalie coach and two Calder winners in Makar and former NHL goalie Andrew Raycroft.

They each provided various reasons for the current gap, although there was one common theme: Rookie goalies are at a major disadvantage when it comes to winning the public attention battle.

“I think a lot of it too is what you are going up against,” one NHL goaltending coach said. “That’s only going to make it harder for a goalie. Everybody right now is anticipating that players like Macklin Celebrini, Matvei Michkov, Will Smith — those high-end guys have been hyped going into the NHL and for good reason because they are great hockey players. You talk about those guys and you bring Dustin Wolf into the conversation. How much better does [Wolf] have to be?”

Following hockey prospects isn’t like following football recruiting. Collegiate and junior hockey broadcasts aren’t as easily accessible, and it’s even more difficult to watch prospects playing in Europe. In contrast, Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has received attention since getting his first scholarship offer in 2017 as a 16-year-old.

In hockey, the spotlight is brighter on non-goaltenders, as evidenced by last season’s Calder race. Chicago Blackhawks center Connor Bedard won, with Minnesota Wild defenseman Brock Faber finishing second and New Jersey Devils defenseman Luke Hughes third:

• Bedard was long touted as the NHL’s next great generational talent. The 2023 draft was known as “The Bedard Draft” after he scored 100 points in his first full WHL season and followed up with 71 goals and 143 points entering his draft season. He also helped Canada to consecutive gold medal finishes at the IIHF World Junior Championships. He was then drafted by an Original Six team, and debuted just months after being drafted No. 1 in 2023.

• Faber, a second-round pick in 2020, played for the United States National Team Development Program and at collegiate blue blood University of Minnesota, and was a two-time Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year before guiding the Gophers to the national title game. He also won gold for the United States at the WJC and was a U.S. Olympian before playing for his hometown team in a state that’s considered to be synonymous with hockey.

• Hughes, the No. 4 pick in 2021, was a standout in a family of standouts as his older brothers, Jack and Quinn, were also first-round picks. The youngest Hughes brother also played for the USNTDP and a collegiate blueblood (Michigan). Hughes was a two-time All-American who averaged more than a point per game as a sophomore. He helped the Wolverines reach consecutive Frozen Fours and was in the NHL after two NCAA seasons.

As rookies, they maintained high profiles: Bedard was a top-line center who led the Blackhawks in several categories and was tied for first in goals. Faber played all 82 games in a top-pairing role, and was given copious power-play and shorthanded minutes. Hughes was a top-four option who led the Devils in ice time, and was first among the team’s defensemen across several offensive categories.

Goaltenders are often presented with a different path when it comes to development, exposure and how long it takes to reach the NHL.

Between 2000 and 2009, 22 goalies were selected in the first round, including Rick DiPietro and Marc-Andre Fleury going No. 1. Since 2010, there have been only nine who went in the first round, with the highest going 11th. None of the goalies from the 2023 and 2024 draft classes have reached the NHL. There have been only 12 goaltenders who have played at least one NHL game since being selected in the 2020, 2021 and 2022 drafts.

One goalie who had a slightly quicker path to the NHL, with a higher profile, was Devon Levi. A seventh-round pick in 2020, Levi’s stock soared after his performances led Canada to a second-place finish at the WJC in 2021. He led Northeastern to a Hockey East regular-season title. Levi signed with the Buffalo Sabres after two college seasons and went 5-2 in the final stretch of the 2022-23 season.

He was set up as a Calder contender in the same season as Bedard, Faber and Hughes — only to struggle throughout a 2023-24 campaign that led to his demotion to the AHL.

“I think there is something to be said that in this world of accelerated everything that kids who don’t play in the AHL are given more consideration for the Calder,” the agent said. “But the guys who have been up and down in the minors might have sort of gone through some of the rookie challenges in people’s minds.”

Raycroft, who won the Calder back in 2003-04, said it’s not just the visibility that No. 1 picks such as Bedard and Celebrini have received over the years that’s different. Those No. 1 picks are being used differently compared to when he played.

In Raycroft’s era, No. 1 picks such as Joe Thornton weren’t immediately trusted with top-line minutes or first-team power-play opportunities. With front offices now placing an emphasis on providing chances to their younger players, it’s allowing those elite prospects the chance to make an immediate impact.

Bedard proved he was a top-line center. During Beniers’ first full season with the Kraken, he was also a top-six center that was second in goals, fourth in assists and fourth in points for a playoff team. Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider, who won the Calder in 2022, emerged as a top-four option that led the team in ice time, assists and power-play points, and was one of three Red Wings to play all 82 games.

With young goalies, it’s a bit more complicated.

“That’s the biggest difference first and foremost. From the goaltending side of it, they bring up goalies a lot differently now,” Raycroft said. “Even Wolf played in the NHL last season — he was able to get some games. Someone like [Carolina Hurricanes goalie Pyotr] Kochetkov had his rookie of the year opportunity eaten up because he played over parts of two or three seasons.”

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THE KOCHETKOV SITUATION might be one of the strongest examples of what makes the current Calder landscape challenging for goalies.

Kochetkov played twice during the 2021-22 season, with injuries opening the door for him to get more playing time in 2022-23 before he was sent back to the AHL. In 2023-24, Kochetkov was firmly entrenched as part of the Hurricanes’ plans. He started 40 games for a playoff team, and won 23 of them while having a 2.33 GAA along with a .911 save percentage.

Kochetkov was named to the All-Rookie Team, while finishing fourth in Calder voting.

“He had a winning record. His save percentage was not in the top three, but he was in the top three in GAA,” the goalie coach said. “But when you look at the big picture? He had 20-plus wins and I don’t know which one [voters] look at the most.”

The Calder is voted upon by the Professional Hockey Writers Association. The longtime voter said they use several items to evaluate skaters such as point production, ice time, role, special teams usage and shots because, “it indicates stick on puck and you are controlling the game.”

The voter said they’d have no problem voting for a goalie — with some caveats.

“If a goaltender took a mediocre team to the playoffs but played 44 games, I’d have a hard time casting my vote,” the voter explained. “But if he played 55 or 58 games, had a low GAA, a high save percentage and was in the top 5 in the league in those categories? They did something that was truly special — I’d have no problem casting a vote for them.”

Last season, there were only 10 goalies overall who played more than 55 games. Two of them were in the top five in GAA among those with more than 25 games, and only one goalie was in the top five in save percentage among those with more than 25 games.

The only goalie in the entire NHL who checked all of those boxes was Winnipeg Jets star Connor Hellebuyck, who won his second Vezina Trophy.

Faber, by comparison, was the only defenseman or forward of last season’s rookie class to finish in the top 10 of a major traditional statistical category. He was sixth in average ice time.

By that voter’s logic, does it appear that there’s a double standard for rookie goalies? Especially at a time in which more teams are moving toward tandems — and only four rookie goalies since 2010 have played in more than 55 games throughout a single season?

“I do feel like the bar has to be higher for a goalie,” the voter said. “I also think that’s going to make it harder for voters now. Goalies don’t play as many games anymore. With the league going to the 1A or 1B strategy, you rarely see a goaltender get over 55 games.”

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BACK TO THE original question: Could any of this year’s rookie goaltenders end the Calder drought?

Dustin Wolf was a seventh-round pick who shattered expectations at every level before reaching the NHL, which makes him one of the higher-profile rookies of this particular class — and rookie goalies in recent history.

That allowed him to enter his first full rookie season under a spotlight. Playing a role in the Flames winning four straight games to start the 2024-25 season also helped. Although the Flames have since cooled, they remain a team that could emerge as a long-term challenger in the Western Conference wild-card race.

“He plays an eye-appealing style with his athleticism, and I think that could help him as opposed to being just a big blocker,” the agent said. “He’s going to have some highlight-reel saves, and I think that could help him too.”

While Wolf entered this season as the most well-known rookie goaltender, he’s part of a rookie class that could have more than one netminder in position to present a strong Calder case at season’s end.

Injuries and inconsistencies have led to the Avalanche trudging to a 8-8-0 start, with five of their wins coming when Justus Annunen has been in net. Annunen was a third-round pick in 2019, and has provided a sense of consistency that has been vital with the Avs weathering the first month without a handful of their top-nine forwards. The 2022 Stanley Cup champions are expected to reach the playoffs for what would be an eighth straight season, and Annunen may well be a critical part of that outcome.

Through the first month, Joel Blomqvist appears to have provided the Pittsburgh Penguins with a strong option in net as they also seek stability. The Penguins entered November allowing the most goals per game in the NHL. Through seven starts, the second-round pick from 2020 is averaging 29.5 saves per game, posting a .904 save percentage for a team that’s also in the top five in the most scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes, most shots allowed per 60 and most high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60, according to Natural Stat Trick. The Pens are one point outside of wild-card position in the East.

So could Annunen, Blomqvist or Wolf emerge to become one of the finalists in a Calder race that includes Celebrini, Michkov, Smith, Cutter Gauthier, Lane Hutson and Logan Stankoven?

Or does the streak extend to a not-so-sweet 16 years since a goalie won the Calder?

“One of these goaltenders who becomes a starter at Christmas and carries the team down the stretch and wins a division would help,” Raycroft said. “Not just being a wild-card team. That is prerequisite No. 1 to be in the mix for being the Rookie of the Year as a goaltender. Numbers will fall into place. I don’t think you can give it to a guy who is not on a playoff team.”