NHL Awards Watch: Players the voters are backing after the first month of the season

November 13, 2024 ndowd

Greg Wyshynski, ESPNNov 12, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
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NHL Awards are not typically won in the first month of the season — but there are always exceptions.

Look at the NHL Awards Watch from one year ago. Quinn Hughes ended up winning the Norris Trophy and Connor Bedard was the eventual Calder Trophy winner. But 2023-24 award winners like Nathan MacKinnon (Hart) and Connor Hellebuyck (Vezina) weren’t really on the radar with voters quite yet, something that changed rather quickly as the season carried on.

Some of the current leaders will no doubt still be leading at the end of the season, while others are just getting their moment in the spotlight before fading from the finalists’ picture. The question is: Which players are which?

We’ve polled a wide selection of Professional Hockey Writers Association voters anonymously to get a sense of where the wind is blowing for the current leaders. We’ve made sure it’s a cross section from the entire league, trying to gain as many perspectives as possible.

Bear in mind that the PHWA votes for the Hart, Norris, Calder, Selke and Lady Byng finalists; broadcasters vote for the Jack Adams; and general managers handle the Vezina.

All stats are from Hockey-Reference.com, Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

Art Ross Trophy (points leader)

Current leader: Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche (29)
Watch out for: Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota Wild (28)
Long shot: Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche (24)

Maurice ‘Rocket’ Richard Trophy (leading goal scorer)

Current leader: Cole Caufield, Montreal Canadiens (12)
Watch out for: Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals (10)
Long shot: Kyle Connor, Winnipeg Jets (9)

Hart Trophy (MVP)

Leader: Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota Wild
Finalists: Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning, Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche

It’s not even close.

Kaprizov captured 78% of the first-place ballots from our voters, as they viewed the dynamic winger as the engine behind the Wild’s impressive 10-2-3 start. Through 15 games, Kaprizov was second to MacKinnon in scoring, which included nine goals and 20 even-strength points. He was tied with Carolina defenseman Dmitry Orlov with a plus-14 rating.

“Making the Minnesota Wild exciting is some real hero stuff,” a voter said, cheekily.

Kaprizov was seventh for the Hart in 2021-22 when he tallied 108 points and 47 goals. He’s been one of the NHL’s premier goal scorers over the past three seasons: His 133 goals tied him for fifth in that span with Colorado’s Mikko Rantanen.

“With 10 multipoint outings already, Kaprizov has failed to register a single point in only three of 15 contests,” another voter said. “If he plays 80 this year, or very near that number, the league’s most underrated superstar will serve as a genuine Hart contender when it matters most.”

Early on, Kaprizov has one of the bellwether stats for a Hart Trophy candidate: The gap between his numbers and the next highest scorer on his team. Through 15 games, he led Matt Boldy by 12 points. No other current playoff team has a gap that large between its top two scorers.

“I mean, this guy has been absolutely ridiculous this year and you can see the value both in terms of his numbers and everyone’s favorite way to determine ‘value,’ how much he is carrying the load for his team,” another voter backing Kirill the Thrill said. “Kaprizov’s insane start has helped take this team from one that lacks offensive firepower, but has a steady core, and turned it into a playoff contender. I think that covers both ends of what an MVP means.”

Despite Kaprizov’s support for the Hart, some see the race closer.

“Kaprizov and Kucherov are neck and neck, with a slight edge to Kaprizov for where the Wild are [in the standings],” a voter said.

Kucherov has 23 points in 14 games for the Lightning, and is tied for the NHL lead in goals (11). His line with Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel is one of the most dominant in the NHL. Kucherov won the Hart in 2018-19 and was second in the voting last season, despite a career-high 144 points.

“Kucherov should’ve won it last year and is proving it again this season,” another voter said. “Kaprizov is a close second, followed by MacKinnon.”

When it comes to MacKinnon as the other finalist, we’re breaking with protocol a little bit. He did not receive a first-place vote on any of the ballots we received. But the sheer number of voters who had MacKinnon in their top three, or mentioned him as a player to watch in the race, tells us there’s momentum to his candidacy.

MacKinnon won his first Hart Trophy last season with 137 first-place votes — way down from Connor McDavid‘s rout in 2022-23 (195) but higher than Auston Matthews‘ win in 2021-22 (119). It’s been 15 seasons since the NHL had a back-to-back Hart Trophy winner. The last player to win two in a row was Alex Ovechkin in 2007-08 and 2008-09.

What’s fascinating about MacKinnon this season is that it could present a different set of circumstances for his MVP candidacy. Last season was a statistical romp: 140 points, which was 36 more than Rantanen and 50 more than Cale Makar. This season, MacKinnon is putting up great numbers — 29 points in 15 games — and seen as the player keeping a ragged, injured Avalanche team in contention.

“What MacKinnon is doing to prop up an injury-ravaged Avs team shouldn’t be overlooked,” a voter said.

The only two players who received first-place votes other than Kaprizov and Kucherov were defenseman Quinn Hughes of the Vancouver Canucks and Vegas Golden Knights winger Mark Stone. Hughes won the Norris Trophy last season and was seventh in the Hart voting, while Stone has 21 points in 13 games and continues to be one of the best two-way forwards in the NHL.

Obviously, any discussion of the Hart Trophy must include the player who has won it three times and been a finalist for it six times in 10 seasons: Connor McDavid of the Edmonton Oilers, who missed some time with a lower-body injury but scored 13 points through 12 games so far this season. It’ll be interesting to see where McDavid lands in the next poll.

Finally, a shoutout to the voter who filled in their Hart Trophy favorite with “everyone in Winnipeg.”

Norris Trophy (top defenseman)

Leader: Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
Finalists: Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks; Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg Jets

Coming off the highest points-per-game rate of his career last season (2.8), Makar seemed primed to become the seventh defenseman in NHL history to break 100 points, and the first since Erik Karlsson tallied 101 points with the 2022-23 San Jose Sharks.

His 24 points in 15 games to start this season opened up another possibility: Could Makar become the second defenseman in NHL history to lead all skaters in scoring? The other guy was Bobby Orr, who did it in 1969-70 (120) and then in 1974-75 (135).

“That level of production with everyone around him hurt is wild,” a Makar voter said.

Makar’s dominant start was reflected in the voting, as the Avalanche defenseman captured 68% of the first-place ballots. He finished third in the voting for the Norris each of the past two seasons after winning the award in 2021-22. Makar has been a Norris finalist in four of his five NHL seasons.

“Just imagine how tough Colorado’s start would’ve been without him,” another voter noted.

But here’s the catch with Makar’s Norris candidacy: He’s a minus-6 on the season through 15 games. No one else in the top 10 scorers among defensemen was that far in the red.

“I don’t care that he’s a minus on a team with everyone hurt and questionable goaltending,” another voter argued. “It’s also a function of how much he plays.”

Or as another voter put it: “Plus/minus, schlus/schlinus … the dude’s on pace for 134 points.”

Hughes won the Norris last season fairly emphatically (172 first-place votes) in a three-way race with Nashville’s Roman Josi (12) and Makar (9). He leads the Canucks with 15 points through 13 games and has been absolutely outstanding defensively with a 1.76 expected-goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.

“Makar’s points are great, but Hughes has dominated every inch of the ice whenever he’s playing,” a voter explained. “Two-way dominance.”

Morrissey has 16 points in his first 15 games during this torrid start for the Jets, playing 24:22 per game. In his 10th NHL season, he’s sniffed around the top three for the Norris in the past two seasons, finishing fifth in 2022-23 and seventh last season. He was the only defenseman to earn a first-place vote besides Makar and Hughes.

Calder Trophy (top rookie)

Leader: Logan Stankoven, Dallas Stars
Finalists: Lane Hutson, Montreal Canadiens; Matvei Michkov, Philadelphia Flyers

The rookie of the year race has been turbulent thus far. We’ve had some first-year players who have run scolding hot and then ice cold, like Michkov. We’ve had some rookies who haven’t stayed in the lineup due to injury (Macklin Celebrini) or demotion (Josh Doan). We’ve had a handful of high-profile rookies who just haven’t achieved lift-off yet, like Cutter Gauthier of the Anaheim Ducks (to the delight of Flyers fans after he demanded a trade last season).

Stankoven has been steady and strong for the Stars. He had points in eight of 13 games, leading all rookie skaters with 12 points (two goals and 10 assists). Stankoven has skated to a plus-4 rating in 15:49 of average ice time. He’s played with Jamie Benn down the lineup, and in between Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson on their top line.

This is Stankoven’s rookie season, but he’s got a bit more experience than some other players here. He played 24 regular-season games in 2023-24, which was one away from last season being his official rookie season. He also played 19 games in the 2024 playoffs.

“The (just barely) rookie is stomping about at a near point-per-game pace,” one voter concluded.

Stankoven led all rookies with 61% of the first-place votes. Running second with roughly 17% of the first-place votes was Hutson, the smooth skating 20-year-old who has eight points in 15 games, skating to a minus-8. He’s hit the highlight reel several times, skating a hefty 23:12 in ice time per game, easily the highest for any rookie defenseman.

Both Michkov and Macklin Celebrini of the San Jose Sharks had a pair of first-place votes, but Michkov appeared on more ballots. Michkov had 10 points in his first 13 games before coach John Tortorella made him a healthy scratch. But that doesn’t tell the whole story: Michkov had nine points in his first eight games, and then a stretch of five games with just one assist.

Some voters think Michkov can build a Calder case this season but are a little wary about his coach’s role in building it.

“It’s Michkov, unless Torts screws this up,” one voter noted.

“John Tortorella is giving Matvei Michkov learning time in the press box ‘as part of the process.’ Not necessarily a bad idea from a development perspective but hurts Michkov’s shot at the Calder if such routine becomes habit,” another voter said.

The biggest game changer in the Calder race is Celebrini, the first overall pick in the 2024 draft. He’s been limited to just four games thanks to a hip injury, but has three goals and one assist in those games.

Some voters made it clear that the only thing holding them back was Celebrini’s sample size.

“Macklin Celebrini has been the most impactful rookie. Michkov is a close second but Celebrini is my pick,” a voter said. “If Celebrini stays healthy, I think he will win the Calder.”

“Part of me thinks Macklin Celebrini can sneak back into this race after the setback from the injury, because he showed he is legit at the NHL level in the few games he had played,” another voter said. “But being realistic, Stankoven has been playing great hockey alongside great linemates and he has settled in quite nicely into a top-six role in Dallas. He will likely continue to put up big numbers.”

One other rookie received a first-place vote: Goalie Joel Blomqvist of the Pittsburgh Penguins. He was 3-4-0 in seven games for Pittsburgh this season, riding in from the AHL to rescue their goaltending. He’s the only goalie of the Penguins’ trio — which has featured Tristan Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic — who has played to an above-expected level.

The Penguins have a steep climb back into playoff contention. If Blomqvist plays a major role in a rally, he could have a seat at the final table for the Calder.

Vezina Trophy (top goaltender)

Note: The NHL’s general managers vote for this award

Leader: Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets
Finalists: Lukas Dostal, Anaheim Ducks; Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers

With due respect to Dostal, the only other goalie to receive a vote for the Vezina, this is unmistakably a two-netminder race between Hellebuyck and Shesterkin.

Hellebuyck won the Vezina last season for the second time in his career. He’s been a finalist four times. Hellebuyck is 11-1-0 with a .935 save percentage, a 1.83 goals-against average and three shutouts already during the Jets’ historic hot streak to start the season. Money Puck has him third (7.2) and Stathletes has him seventh (5.1) in goals saved above expected.

The last line of defense is the first person you think of as the secret to the Jets’ success. There’s a reason he earned 72% of our voters’ first-place ballots.

“Best goalie on the best team. Repeat Vezina come June?” a Hellebuyck voter pondered.

Shesterkin was the clear second choice. He finished fourth for the award last season after winning in 2021-22. Shesterkin is 6-3-1 on the season, with a .920 save percentage and a 2.62 goals-against average plus one shutout. Money Puck has him even with Hellebuyck in goals save above expected, while Stathletes has him first with 10.5 goals save above expected.

“Pay that man his money,” a Shesterkin backer quipped.

“Take away the clunker against Buffalo and it is Igor Shesterkin’s to lose,” another Igor voter said, in reference to the five goals he gave up against the Sabres. “Without him, the Rangers aren’t near the top of the standings.”

Keep in mind that Hellebuyck has another way to boost his case that Shesterkin doesn’t: The 4 Nations Face-Off midseason tournament, where Hellebuyck is expected to start for Team USA. Obviously, those games shouldn’t factor into the Vezina voting … but perceptions matter and international dominance can certainly bolster one’s reputation. Just ask Ryan Miller, 2010 Olympic star and 2009-10 Vezina winner.

As mentioned, Dostal was the only other goalie to receive a vote. The Ducks netminder was only 4-5-2 in 11 games, but put up respectable numbers (.922 save percentage, 2.73 goals-against average) while facing the most shots of any goalie in the league so far this season. Stathletes has him third overall in goals saved above expected (7.6).

Selke Trophy (best defensive forward)

Leader: Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers
Finalists: Nico Hischier, New Jersey Devils; Jordan Staal, Carolina Hurricanes

Barkov has officially reached his “default choice” era in Selke consideration. Like Patrice Bergeron and Pavel Datsyuk before him, Barkov’s name is now penciled in as the favorite until he gives voters a reason to erase it.

“It’s going to be him in the end anyway,” a Barkov voter noted.

“Until we get further into the season it will be hard to see if there are some other standouts but Barkov just dominates a game defensively,” another said.

Barkov won the Selke for the second time last season, and his legend only grew with his performance in helping the Panthers win the Stanley Cup. This season, he’s been his usual dominant self defensively (2.1 goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5) although his action was limited early on due to injury.

While Barkov is the clear leader with 22% of the first-place votes, no less than 11 different players received at least one as well. Hischier had the next most support (17%), as the Devils’ captain was averaging 1.43 goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 through 18 games. He also falls squarely into the “he’s due” category of Selke seekers, as he was second for the award in 2022-23.

Speaking of “he’s due,” the final finalist is Jordan Staal. He received votes for the Selke in 16 of his 18 previous NHL seasons. He was second to Barkov for the award last season, the second time Staal has been a finalist. His combo with winger Jordan Martinook might be the best tandem of defensive forwards in the NHL. Staal is averaging 1.1 goals against per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play.

“There are three worthy Canes with Staal, [Seth] Jarvis and Martinook,” a Staal voter said. “Wouldn’t be surprised if that splits the vote and costs one of them the trophy.”

Tampa Bay Lightning center Anthony Cirelli was right behind Staal for the final finalist spot. Other players who received at least one first-place vote included Adam Lowry of the Winnipeg Jets, Leon Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers, Sam Reinhart of the Panthers, Joel Eriksson Ek of the Minnesota Wild, Sidney Crosby of the Pittsburgh Penguins, Anze Kopitar of the Los Angeles Kings, and Mark Stone of the Vegas Golden Knights.

“High time we give this trophy to a winger,” the Stone voter said.

Lady Byng Trophy (gentlemanly play)

This is the part where I mention that the Lady Byng Trophy for gentlemanly play should be voted on by the league’s on-ice officials or by the NHL Players’ Association instead of the PHWA.

It’s early, but Roman Josi of the Nashville Predators had only two penalty minutes in his first 15 games of the season. And frankly, given the state of his team, that guy had every reason to lash out at somebody out of frustration.

Jack Adams Award (best coach)

Note: The NHL Broadcasters’ Association votes on this award.

Leader: Scott Arniel, Winnipeg Jets
Finalists: Rod Brind’Amour, Carolina Hurricanes; Spencer Carbery, Washington Capitals

At first glance, it’s obvious why Arniel would be the early-season leader for coach of the year. The Jets are the first team in NHL history to win 14 of its first 15 games of a season. Winnipeg is the second team in NHL history to record multiple six-game win streaks through its first 15 games. The Jack Adams doesn’t always go to the coach of the season’s best team — since 1973-74, only 10 winners came from teams that captured the Presidents’ Trophy — but it’s undeniable that Arniel has turned a good team into a steamroller early in the season.

But within context of the Jack Adams, Arniel’s case is even stronger. He’s in his first year as Winnipeg’s head coach after serving as associate coach under Rick Bowness, so he’ll earn credit for any increase in the standings over their 110-point season in 2023-24. But keep in mind the voters were already impressed with the Jets: Bowness was a Jack Adams finalist last season.

Voters love a redemption story, too: Please recall Arniel had two unsuccessful years with Columbus from 2010-11, paid his dues and got his second chance over a decade later.

“As boring a pick for the Jack Adams as Hellebuyck is for the Vezina, the Jets would have to implode badly for Arniel to lose his grip on pole position in the race for Coach of the Year,” an Arniel voter explained.

That said, Arniel garnered only 55% of the first-place ballots. Carbery was a very strong second with 28% of the votes, having placed seventh in the voting last season. Carbery coached the Capitals to an unexpected playoff spot last season. Washington has a .714 points percentage through 14 games and is playing better at 5-on-5 in Carbery’s second season.

Those who believe in Carbery really believe in him.

“Spencer Carbery, and it’s not even close,” a voter said.

“We assumed the 2024-25 Capitals were all about one individual’s chase for a record. The team looks legit, and Carbery deserves credit for the group buy-in,” another Carbery voter explained.

The other finalist is Rod Brind’Amour, who won the award in 2020-21. The Hurricanes continue to play Rod The Bod’s system to perfection, with a plus-20 goal differential through 13 games.

“This feels obvious, so it probably won’t happen,” a Brind’Amour backer said.

The only other coach to receive support from our voters was Paul Maurice of the Florida Panthers, a loquacious bench boss whose victory would obviously be worth it for the speech.

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