The biggest storylines, matchup keys and predictions for NFL Week 11
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NFL Nation, ESPN
The Week 11 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.
Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 11 slate, including an AFC North showdown between the Ravens and Steelers and the Chiefs’ trip to Buffalo. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Texans and the Cowboys on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
BAL-PIT | GB-CHI | JAX-DET
MIN-TEN | LV-MIA | LAR-NE
CLE-NO | IND-NYJ | ATL-DEN
SEA-SF | KC-BUF | CIN-LAC
HOU-DAL
Thursday: PHI 26, WSH 18
Byes: ARI, CAR, NYG, TB
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BAL -3 (47.5 O/U)
Ravens storyline to watch: In his past eight games, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is 7-1, throwing 22 touchdown passes and one interception. But the Steelers have contained Jackson more than any other team. He is 1-3 against Pittsburgh and has totaled four touchdown passes and seven interceptions while getting sacked 20 times. — Jamison Hensley
Steelers storyline to watch: The Steelers are finally opening AFC North play, and they’ll do it with an offense that could give the Ravens fits. With Russell Wilson at the helm, the Steelers are averaging 230 passing yards per game and 30.3 points per game in the past three weeks. The Ravens, meanwhile, are allowing a league-worst 294.9 passing yards per game in addition to 25.3 points per game. To make matters worse, the Ravens could be without safety Kyle Hamilton (ankle). — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: The Ravens have allowed an NFL-high 22 completions this season on passes 20 or more yards downfield.
Bold prediction: Steelers defensive tackle Keeanu Benton will record at least two quarterback hits. He rattled off five straight games with a quarterback hit to start the season but hasn’t had one since Week 5. He’s playing more, and his pass rush win rate is a strong 12% at defensive tackle — 11th best at the position. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Steelers wide receiver George Pickens. The rapport between Pickens and Wilson is undeniable. He has scored 20 or more fantasy points in two of his past three games. He faces a Ravens defense that allows the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Overs are 9-1 in Ravens games this season, which is the highest rate in the NFL. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Ravens 33, Steelers 30
Moody’s pick: Ravens 30, Steelers 27
Walder’s pick: Ravens 28, Steelers 22
FPI prediction: BAL, 60.9% (by an average of 4.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Can the Ravens fix their league-worst pass defense? … Steelers LB Queen says Ravens didn’t want him back
9:53
Who needs to win more: Lamar or Russ?
Stephen A. Smith, Mina Kimes, Dan Orlovsky and Kimberley A. Martin debate if Lamar Jackson or Russell Wilson needs a win more in there Week 11 showdown.
1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: GB -5 (40.5 O/U)
Packers storyline to watch: Coach Matt LaFleur and the Packers have won 10 straight against the Bears. A loss Sunday would not only end that streak but also another one: The Packers have not started 0-3 in division play since 2005, but they already have lost to the Vikings and Lions this season. The 19-year streak of avoiding an 0-3 division start is the second-longest active streak behind the Patriots, who haven’t started 0-3 in division play since 1994. — Rob Demovsky
Bears storyline to watch: Thomas Brown takes over at offensive coordinator for Shane Waldron, who was fired on Tuesday, and will call plays for a Bears offense that has gone 23 consecutive drives without a touchdown. Coach Matt Eberflus implored the offense to display more “creativity” after the Bears stumbled during a three-game losing streak during which they rank dead last in points (9.0), yards per play (3.7), third-down conversion rate (15%) and touchdowns (0). The Bears are 2-10 in NFC North games under Eberflus, whose .167 win percentage in division play is the worst in the NFL since 2022. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: Quarterback Jordan Love has thrown an interception in seven straight games, which is the longest single-season streak by a Packers signal-caller since 2005 (Brett Favre, 10).
Bold prediction: Bears quarterback Caleb Williams will have his first QBR over 50 since Week 6. I’m betting changing to Brown as the offensive playcaller will help spark the offense — which surely has the talent to be better than it has been. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Packers tight end Tucker Kraft. He has scored 12 or more fantasy points in four of his past six games. What stands out is his ability to gain yards after the catch, where he leads the Packers. Kraft has a favorable matchup facing a Bears defense that allows the ninth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bears are 4-1 ATS at home this season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Packers 24, Bears 15
Moody’s pick: Packers 24, Bears 16
Walder’s pick: Packers 27, Bears 20
FPI prediction: GB, 63.5% (by an average of 4.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jacobs brings ‘different dynamic’ to Packers’ backfield … QB Williams believes Bears have his back amid struggles … OC Waldron fired: What’s next for Bears, QB Williams
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: DET -14 (46.5 O/U)
Jaguars storyline to watch: Quarterback Mac Jones will make his second start for Trevor Lawrence (shoulder). Jones is coming off a game in which he threw for 111 yards, turned the ball over three times and led the Jaguars to just 143 yards of offense (the fifth-lowest total in franchise history) in a loss to Minnesota. One thing that could help is getting receiver Brian Thomas Jr. involved again. He has had four catches for 34 yards the past two weeks. — Mike DiRocco
Lions storyline to watch: New defensive lineman Za’Darius Smith is expected to make his Lions debut against Jacksonville after being traded from Cleveland last week. Smith was not activated last Sunday to allow him to get acclimated to the organization, but he’s ready to go this week. The Lions aren’t putting pressure on him to fill the role of Pro Bowl edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who underwent surgery to repair his fractured tibia and fibula, but to elevate the defense in his own way. “I’m not going to be looking at the stats,” coach Dan Campbell said. “I just want to know that he’s doing his job and he’s as productive as he can be in that.” — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: The Jaguars are 1-6 this season in one-score games (decided by eight points or fewer). That’s the most such losses in the NFL.
Bold prediction: Lions linebacker Jack Campbell will record at least 11 total tackles. Campbell ranks third among all players in run stop win rate (48.6%) and is recording a tackle or assist on 25% of opponent run plays, a very high rate. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Lions running back David Montgomery. He’s averaging 15.6 touches and 15.4 fantasy points per game, making him a reliable option. Also, the Jaguars’ defense is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs, so expect Montgomery to see plenty of action. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jaguars can clinch the under on their win total (8.5) with a loss. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Lions 31, Jaguars 14
Moody’s pick: Lions 34, Jaguars 17
Walder’s pick: Lions 31, Jaguars 13
FPI prediction: DET, 86.7% (by an average of 16.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jags rule out Lawrence, hope for post-bye return … Lions TE LaPorta day to day with shoulder injury … Lions’ last-second win interrupted by flight announcement
5:29
Should Jared Goff be out of the MVP race?
Stephen A. Smith and Dan Orlovsky debate whether Lions QB Jared Goff should be in the MVP race after a 5-interception performance against the Texans.
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIN -6 (39.5 O/U)
Vikings storyline to watch: Sunday’s game will be the Vikings’ third consecutive AFC South matchup. They’ve won the first two, against the Colts and Jaguars, despite quarterback Sam Darnold committing three turnovers in each game. But their defense has forced five turnovers during that stretch, and it will be primed to generate more against a Titans offense that has committed 17 this season, tied for the third most in the league. — Kevin Seifert
Titans storyline to watch: The Titans are well aware of the Vikings’ tenacious defense and how it confuses quarterbacks. Considering the offensive line issues and quarterback Will Levis‘ inexperience, it would seem like Tennessee is at a major disadvantage. Titans coach Brian Callahan and offensive coordinator Nick Holz said they want to make it easier for Levis to see the answers to the blitz early in the play and show Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores they have counters to his extensive blitz package. — Turron Davenport
Stat to know: Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson has gone three straight games without a receiving touchdown, his longest streak this season. He has not had a four-game drought since 2022, when he went six straight games without a touchdown reception.
Bold prediction: Titans edge Harold Landry III will record a sack. Though he has only one sack in his past five games, Landry has a 0.74-second pass rush get off, the fifth fastest of any player with at least 100 pass rushes, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And Darnold has taken four sacks in three of his past five games. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley. His 25.4 fantasy points in Week 10 against a tough Chargers defense was a season high. After the DeAndre Hopkins trade to the Chiefs, Ridley has had eight or more targets in three straight games and should continue to shine against the Vikings. Minnesota’s defense gives up the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Vikings are 7-2 ATS in the first quarter this season, which is the best mark in the NFL. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Vikings 28, Titans 14
Moody’s pick: Viking 24, Titans 13
Walder’s pick: Vikings 22, Titans 16
FPI prediction: MIN, 65.5% (by an average of 6.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Vikings’ conundrum: QB Darnold’s aggressiveness vs. INTs
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -7 (43.5 O/U)
Raiders storyline to watch: The Raiders will sport a new-look offense with the same quarterback in Gardner Minshew. Las Vegas fired its offensive coordinator, quarterbacks coach and offensive line coach before the bye week, and pass game coordinator Scott Turner was elevated to interim OC … with an assist from a familiar face. Former Raiders coach and longtime NFL coach Norv Turner, Scott’s dad, joined the staff as an adviser. “A wealth of information,” the younger Turner said of his father, who called plays in the NFL from 1991 through 2019, with a one-year break. Minshew said: “It’s kind of the same bones, same general idea, just … a little bit different flavor.” — Paul Gutierrez
Dolphins storyline to watch: Dolphins rookie linebacker Chop Robinson has recorded at least four pressures in each of his past three games, and he recorded a sack in each of his past two. Against a Raiders team that has allowed the fifth-most sacks in the NFL this season, Robinson and the Dolphins’ defense could replicate their performance in Week 10, when they pressured Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford 15 times. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: The Raiders have not lost six straight games in a single season since 2014. They started that season with 10 consecutive losses.
Bold prediction: Raiders running back Alexander Mattison, fresh off a zero-reception game, will record a season-high in receiving yards (currently 43). Mattison ranks fifth among running backs in ESPN’s overall receiving score (72), flashing strong open and YAC scores. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He has averaged just 13.4 fantasy points per game since Week 8. But this week, Tagovailoa faces a Raiders defense that gives up the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS at home this season. They are 1-4 ATS as favorites. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Dolphins 24, Raiders 17
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 28, Raiders 14
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 26, Raiders 16
FPI prediction: MIA, 62.4% (by an average of 5.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Raiders sticking with Minshew over Ridder at QB … Dolphins RT Jackson out for season after surgery … McDaniel ignores ex-player calling Dolphins ‘soft’
0:39
How Fulghum is approaching Raiders-Dolphins
Tyler Fulghum is getting creative in his two-leg teaser for Raiders vs. Dolphins.
1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: LAR -5 (43.5 O/U)
Rams storyline to watch: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown an interception in six straight games, which is the second-longest active streak in the NFL, according to ESPN Research. The Patriots’ defense has only grabbed four interceptions all season, which is tied for 27th in the league. — Sarah Barshop
Patriots storyline to watch: Veteran Yannick Ngakoue, who was claimed on waivers from the Ravens on Nov. 8, is expected to make his Patriots debut with his primary contributions coming as a pass rusher. The Patriots’ defense had its best third-down performance of the season last week, holding the Bears to a 1-of-14 success rate and hopes to continue that against a Rams offense that was 3-of-12 on third down in last week’s loss to the Dolphins. — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: The Patriots snapped an eight-game home losing streak against the Jets in Week 8. They’re seeking consecutive home wins for the first time since November 2022.
Bold prediction: Rams running back Kyren Williams will record 25-plus carries. The Patriots’ defense struggles to stop the run and the pass, but I expect the Rams to build a bit of a lead here and then let Williams carry them on long drives the rest of the way. They have the second-highest success rate (48%) on designed carries. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Patriots tight end Hunter Henry. He had a disappointing Week 10 but had scored 12-plus fantasy points in three of his previous four games. Henry has built great chemistry with quarterback Drake Maye and has a favorable matchup against a Rams defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Since 2022, the Rams are 4-1 ATS as road favorites. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Rams 29, Patriots 27
Moody’s pick: Rams 22, Patriots 19
Walder’s pick: Rams 27, Patriots 17
FPI prediction: LAR, 63.5% (by an average of 5.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Rams CB Ramsey trade first domino in team philosophy change … Does QB Maye crack the top 10 NFL rookies list?
1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: NO -1 (44.5 O/U)
Browns storyline to watch: The Browns are back from their bye week, and defensive communication is a point of emphasis after Cleveland gave up a pair of deep touchdown passes in a Week 9 loss to the Chargers. It will be key against a Saints offense that rediscovered its explosive passing game from earlier in the season. New Orleans completed a season-high five passes of 20 or more yards in last week’s win over the Falcons. — Daniel Oyefusi
Saints storyline to watch: The Saints had a late forced fumble and interception to seal a win against the Falcons last week, and they hope they can make some of those plays against former quarterback Jameis Winston, who has had five interceptions in his past four starts (two in two starts as a Saint in 2023 and three last week). The Saints heaped praise on Winston as a teammate and leader this week, but Saints safety Tyrann Mathieu, who had an interception last week, also joked “I’m expecting a shot, first play of the game, Jameis. Throw it up there.” — Katherine Terrell
Stat to know: A loss for the Saints will be the franchise’s worst 11-game start to a season since 2005, when they also went 3-8.
0:38
What Fulghum expects from Browns-Saints
Tyler Fulghum breaks down why he expects the new coach bounce to wear off for the Saints when they face the Browns in Week 11.
Bold prediction: Browns wide receiver Elijah Moore will have 60-plus receiving yards. He had nine targets a week ago and managed only 28 yards, but I expect that target volume to still be there, especially since he may often draw Alontae Taylor, who has allowed a 1.9 yards-per-coverage snap this season (third most among slot corners), per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Browns wide receiver Cedric Tillman. Cleveland is coming off a bye with Winston back under center and Tillman as his No. 1 target. They’ll be up against a Saints defense that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to wideouts. Tillman has been consistent, scoring 18-plus fantasy points in each of his past three games and racking up 10-plus targets in two of those. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their past six games (they covered last week). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Browns 22, Saints 20
Moody’s pick: Browns 27, Saints 24
Walder’s pick: Browns 30, Saints 23
FPI prediction: CLE, 50.0% (by an average of 0.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Browns GM noncommittal on Watson’s future in Cleveland … How Saints’ salary cap math could impact Carr, veterans … LT Wills: ‘Business decision’ to sit out game backfired
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: NYJ -4 (43.5 O/U)
Colts storyline to watch: Quarterback Anthony Richardson returns to the lineup for the Colts, and that could be a boost for Indy’s run game. In the five full games he played this season, the Colts averaged 5.2 yards per carry, 142.4 rushing yards per game and had 28 rushes of 10 yards or longer. The Colts recorded seven of their nine total rushing touchdowns in those five games. Meanwhile, running back Jonathan Taylor has four 100-yard performances in just seven games this season. — Stephen Holder
Jets storyline to watch: The Jets, who missed 20 tackles in last week’s blowout loss to the Cardinals, put a major emphasis on tackling fundamentals in practice. Interim coach Jeff Ulbrich, a former NFL linebacker, gave a tackling presentation to the entire team (yes, even offense). They also practiced in pads more than usual. In the past five games, the Jets have allowed 501 yards after contact, ranking 31st over that span. — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: Jets wide receiver Davante Adams‘ 51% catch percentage is the second worst in the NFL since Week 7 among pass catchers with a minimum of 25 targets.
Bold prediction: Richardson will break off a 30-plus-yard run and lead the Colts to victory. Richardson certainly comes with his fair share of variance, but that can work in Indianapolis’ favor, too. And you can usually count on the Jets to beat themselves. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He hasn’t delivered the fantasy season that managers were hoping for, with just two games with more than 20 fantasy points. However, Rodgers has a favorable matchup against a Colts defense that allows the seventh-most passing yards per game and the fifth-highest completion percentage. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Colts are 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records this season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Colts 21, Jets 14
Moody’s pick: Jets 24, Colts 17
Walder’s pick: Colts 23, Jets 17
FPI prediction: NYJ, 59.2% (by an average of 3.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Colts bench Flacco, turn back to Richardson at QB … Inside Rodgers’ complicated relationship with the Jets … How does Ulbrich compare to Saleh?
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: DEN -2.5 (44.5 O/U)
Falcons storyline to watch: The Falcons allow the highest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks in the league (70.3%), are tied for worst in quarterback pressure percentage (27.4%) and have the fewest sacks (9). Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix has fared much better while not under pressure — completing 70.2% to 43.9% when under duress. — Marc Raimondi
Broncos storyline to watch: The Falcons will be the fourth offense currently ranked in the top 10 that the Broncos have faced this season. Two times (against Tampa and Kansas City), Denver’s defense made life fairly miserable for those offenses and one offense (Baltimore) put together seven scoring drives. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins is seeking to avoid consecutive games without a passing touchdown for the first time in his career as a starter.
Bold prediction: The Broncos’ defense will score a touchdown. Atlanta’s offense versus Denver’s defense is a strength-on-strength battle, but the Broncos’ defense, which is fourth in EPA per play, is especially good against the pass. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Nix. The rookie is clearly in full command, and coach Sean Payton continues to impress as a playcaller. Nix has been a reliable fantasy performer, scoring 16 or more points in five of his past six games, including three with 20-plus points. The Falcons give up the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Falcons are 3-1 ATS on the road this season after going 2-7 ATS on the road last season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Falcons 24, Broncos 22
Moody’s pick: Broncos 27, Falcons 21
Walder’s pick: Broncos 20, Falcons 17
FPI prediction: ATL, 58.1% (by an average of 2.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Falcons back kicker Koo despite 3 missed field goals in loss … Rookie RB Estime could be spark for Broncos’ backfield … Falcons need better starts … Tough loss to Chiefs shows Broncos’ limited margin for error
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: SF -6.5 (45.5 O/U)
Seahawks storyline to watch: The tables have turned on an NFC West rivalry that the Seahawks used to dominate. They’ve lost six straight regular-season and playoff games to the 49ers by a combined score of 184-96, including a 36-24 defeat in Week 6 that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. Seattle could have several key players available Sunday who didn’t play in the first meeting, such as Abraham Lucas, Byron Murphy II, Riq Woolen and trade acquisition Ernest Jones IV. — Brady Henderson
49ers storyline to watch: Christian McCaffrey‘s return last week helped him knock some rust off before facing a team against which he has had great success. McCaffrey has averaged 163 scrimmage yards per game in six meetings with Seattle and reached 125 in all. If he gets to 125 again Sunday, he’d tie Jim Brown (vs. Philadelphia) as the only player in NFL history to post 125-plus scrimmage yards against one team seven consecutive times. — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is 8-2 in his career against division opponents with a 76.7 QBR in those games. That’s the second-highest QBR by any quarterback since the metric was introduced in 2006 (minimum of 10 starts).
Bold prediction: Jones IV will record a sack. He’s a great blitzer but wasn’t used to rushing the passer much in Tennessee. Last week he recorded a season-high 10 pass rushes, and I expect coach Mike Macdonald will want to keep deploying him like that. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III. He has seen a dip in fantasy production lately. However, the 49ers allowed a combined 36.7 fantasy points to Buccaneers running backs Rachaad White and Bucky Irving in Week 10, showing vulnerability to the run. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The 49ers are 5-0 outright and 4-1 ATS in five meetings since 2022. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: 49ers 28, Seahawks 24
Moody’s pick: 49ers 31, Seahawks 20
Walder’s pick: 49ers 29, Seahawks 27
FPI prediction: SF, 69.1% (by an average of 6.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Seahawks activate Lucas from PUP, put Fant on IR … McCaffrey’s return has 49ers returning to roots … Seahawks waive leading tackler Dodson in ILB shake-up … 49ers’ Lenoir gets 5-year, $92M extension
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -2 (45.5 O/U)
Chiefs storyline to watch: In seven career games against the Chiefs, counting three in the playoffs, quarterback Josh Allen has 16 touchdown passes, three interceptions and a QBR of 74. Are the Chiefs capable of keeping him from another big game this time, even if Allen is throwing to a group of receivers depleted by injuries? In the past two weeks, the Chiefs put up little resistance against Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield and Denver’s Bo Nix. — Adam Teicher
Bills storyline to watch: Can the Bills’ defense continue to limit the Chiefs’ offense in the regular season? The Bills have held the Chiefs to 20.8 points per game in four regular-season meetings since 2020. Taking the ball away is a point of emphasis for this defense and could be the key to success. The Bills have 12 straight games with at least one takeaway, the second-longest active streak in the NFL after the Lions (13). — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The Bills have won five straight games; Buffalo’s plus-61 scoring margin during the win streak is the third highest by any team in the NFL over that span, trailing only the Lions (plus-91) and the Eagles (plus-82)
Bold prediction: Bills cornerback Christian Benford will pick off quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Benford is playing great this season. In fact, no outside cornerback has allowed fewer yards per coverage snap (0.6) than him, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Part of that is because he’s allowing fewer targets than average (13%) but also that he has a minus-9% completion percentage allowed over expectation. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt. Kansas City is first in time of possession (33:01), which means we should see a lot of Hunt. He has had 20-plus touches in each of his past four games, scoring at least 17 fantasy points in three of them. The Bills’ defense is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their past four conference games. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bills 29, Chiefs 27
Moody’s pick: Bills 25, Chiefs 23
Walder’s pick: Bills 24, Chiefs 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 53.1% (by an average of 1.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: All the strange — and lucky — ways the Chiefs have gone 9-0 … Bills’ offensive stars called these plays for themselves — here’s how they worked out
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: LAC -1.5 (47.5 O/U)
Bengals storyline to watch: Can quarterback Joe Burrow keep attacking split-safety looks? This season, Burrow has the fifth-highest yards per attempt (8.4) against those safety shells, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. The Chargers use the split-safety formation on 58.1% of opponent dropbacks, the second-highest clip in the league. — Ben Baby
Chargers storyline to watch: Sunday will be the first big test for the Chargers’ defense, which ranks first in the NFL in points allowed per game (13.1). The Bengals are one of the NFL’s best offenses, averaging the sixth-most points per game this year (26.1). — Kris Rhim
Stat to know: A win for the Bengals would increase their chances of making the playoffs from 37% to 52%, according to ESPN Analytics.
2:04
Jim Harbaugh to McAfee: Justin Herbert is one of the best of all time
Jim Harbaugh talks to Pat McAfee about what makes his Chargers team special, starting with Justin Herbert.
Bold prediction: Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston will record 80-plus receiving yards and a touchdown. That’s because he will most often line up in front of Cam Taylor-Britt. The Bengals cornerback has allowed 2.0 yards per coverage snap this year, second most among his position, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. The Chargers have leaned more on Herbert and the passing game after the bye. He has had 30 or more pass attempts in three of his past five games. It’s important to note that Herbert has scored at least 19 fantasy points in three consecutive games. The Bengals allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bengals are 5-0 ATS on the road, while the Chargers are 4-0 ATS at home this season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bengals 25, Chargers 23
Moody’s pick: Chargers 27, Bengals 23
Walder’s pick: Bengals 27, Chargers 24
FPI prediction: LAC, 52.1% (by an average of 0.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Childhood photo links Zac Taylor, Jim Harbaugh before Bengals-Chargers … Do the Chargers have the NFL’s best defense? We’re about to find out … Bengals coach to advocate over potential late hits of Joe Burrow
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC | ESPN BET: HOU -7.5 (47.5 O/U)
Texans storyline to watch: The Texans are averaging 119 rushing yards per game fueled by running back Joe Mixon, who has the third-highest average per game (98.3). The Cowboys are allowing 152.1 rushing yards per game, so this could lead to a huge night from Mixon. Also wideout Nico Collins (hamstring) returns this week after missing the past five games, which should open up more running lanes for Mixon. — DJ Bien-Aime
Cowboys storyline to watch: Can the second week of Cooper Rush as the starting quarterback be better than the first? He averaged 1.96 yards per attempt last week against the Eagles, so it needs to be. The Cowboys are looking for their first win of the season at AT&T Stadium (0-4) .They have had three home losses by at least 25 points, matching the most in team history. The Cowboys have not lost five straight home games since 2015, when they finished 4-12. — Todd Archer
Stat to know: The Texans’ 15 takeaways since Week 6 lead the NFL. Houston only produced three takeaways from Weeks 1-5.
Bold prediction: The Cowboys will fail to cross midfield in the first half even with the sun having already set. Instead, their biggest problem will be themselves. And part of the equation here is that Houston will run all over them and own time of possession, barely giving Rush much time to work anyway. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Mixon. Houston’s passing game could get a boost with Collins back, but the Cowboys’ defense remains vulnerable against the run. Dallas has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, and their defensive front ranks 30th in run stop win rate (27.1%). See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their past four games, their longest ATS losing streak since 2020 (eight straight). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Texans 30, Cowboys 9
Moody’s pick: Texans 28, Cowboys 17
Walder’s pick: Texans 30, Cowboys 6
FPI prediction: HOU, 71.1% (by an average of 8.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: How bad is Cowboys’ offense? Worst start in McCarthy’s career … What Prescott’s season-ending surgery would mean for Cowboys
