Trump killing the EV tax credit would hurt Tesla but be catastrophic for Elon Musk’s competition, analysts say
President-elect Donald Trump will reportedly cut the EV tax credit when he takes office in January, but contrary to popular belief, Wedbush analysts say the move could actually benefit Trump’s “first buddy,” Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
The Trump transition team is planning to kill the tax credit, Reuters reported Friday, citing two anonymous sources with direct knowledge, and yet representatives from the largest U.S. EV maker, Tesla, favor the move.
Wedbush analysts, led by stalwart Tesla bull Dan Ives, said Trump cutting the $7,500 consumer tax credit for EVs would not be surprising, and that it would take a bigger toll on traditional car manufacturers than on Tesla.
“Tesla has a scale and scope that is unmatched and while losing the EV tax credit could also hurt some demand on the margins in the US, this will enable Tesla to further fend off competition from Detroit as pricing/scale/scope is an apples to oranges when compared to the rest of the auto industry once the EV tax credit disappears,” the analysts wrote in the Thursday note.
On Tesla’s second-quarter earnings call in July, Musk said eliminating the EV tax credit would have a slight impact on Tesla, but added that it would be “devastating” for the competition, which would help Tesla in the long term.
Musk’s growing influence with Trump means he may also have a say in how the incoming administration shapes its EV policy, which could be good for Tesla.
“We believe any sell-off in Tesla from these reports is the wrong knee-jerk reaction and we would be buyers. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating and $400 price target,” the analysts wrote.
Taking away the tax credit could be supplemented by other incentives and programs to encourage U.S.-made EVs, in line with the president-elect’s focus on reviving domestic manufacturing, the analysts wrote.
Yet, for other EV manufacturers, including U.S. automakers like Ford and GM as well as upstart Rivian, cutting the EV tax credit could be a setback, although maybe not as big a hit as some expect, especially for GM and Rivian. Still, cutting the tax credit would be a net negative to the EV industry, according to Wedbush.
“This EV tax credit removal could clearly slow down Detroit’s shift to EVs over the next few years…” the analysts wrote.
While the EV tax credit removal may make buying an electric vehicle less appealing for American consumers, Cox Automotive executive analyst Erin Keating said in a statement to Fortune that nothing can stop the growing movement.
Sales of EVs through the end of the third quarter were up 9%, Keating noted, and while government-backed sales incentives may have helped adoption, cutting them won’t stop the auto industry’s move to electrification.
“No matter what administration is in the White House, the path is set: EVs will continue to gain share as more choice and competitive pricing entice buyers to go electric,” Keating said in a statement.
