Who will be the No. 1 player by season's end: Jokic or Wembanyama?

A month into the NBA season, Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic is putting up numbers unlike any other in the history of the league. He leads the league in rebounds per game (13.7 RPG) and assists (11.7 APG), which is significant because no player in NBA history has ever led the league in both rebounds and assists per game in a season.

As a bonus, Jokic is also tied for third in the league with 29.7 PPG — not far out of first in scoring, as well.

Jokic’s video game numbers and triple-double averages are almost too much to believe. But, at the end of the season, will he still be the most productive player in the league? While what we are witnessing is the best we’ve ever seen from Jokic — and one of the most productive seasons in league history — there is still a chance that someone tops it.

That’s particularly true in fantasy basketball, where defensive categories are often weighted more than offense, and it’s there — on the defensive end — where there’s a player with the type of upside we haven’t seen in generations.

That player is Victor Wembanyama.

Wembanyama leads the NBA with 3.7 blocks per game after posting a league-leading 3.6 BPG as a rookie last season. While Wemby started his sophomore season relatively slow, by his standards, he is still slightly ahead of his Rookie of the Year pace, and his game seems to be improving by the day.

So, can Wemby’s best be better than the best we’ve ever seen from the Joker?

Jokic’s numbers have jumped to a whole new tier

Jokic has been named NBA MVP three times in the past four seasons and has been the leading fantasy points producer in all four seasons. Here are his stat lines in those four seasons, fantasy points included:

Thus far this season, Jokic is way up across the board. He is on career-best pace in scoring, assists, blocks, steals and 3-pointers and within a tenth of his career-high in rebounds per game.

On top of that, he has increased his volume with no lowering of his shooting percentages, indicating his volume increase fits squarely within his comfort zone without strain. This bodes well for his ability to maintain this pace over the course of a season.

And what a pace. Jokic is not only producing more than 10 more fantasy points per game than his career-best pace from last season, but he’s running a whopping 15.1 FP/G higher than second place this season (Giannis Antetokounmpo, 57.8 FP/G).

Wembanyama is currently fifth in the NBA in fantasy points per game at 53.2 FP/G, almost 20 points behind Jokic. With Jokic having this large an advantage through the first month, how could Wemby even make this competitive?

Wemby’s potential this season

In his short NBA career, Wembanyama seems to be making a habit of starting “slow” before settling in and playing to his level. Through his first 14 NBA games last season as a rookie, Wembanyama produced very solid numbers.

But he was just getting warmed up, settling into the NBA game. Once he was truly comfortable, Wembanyama took his game to the next level. Here’s what he did during the next 45 games:

Wembanyama’s sophomore season seems to be following the same pattern, but at an accelerated rate. Through his first nine games this season, Wembanyama’s numbers look very like the start of his rookie season:

But starting in game 10, Wemby found another gear. And in the four games since, his numbers have been a lot more competitive with the Joker.

So, for the last week-plus, Wemby has been producing at the level Jokic has produced for the last month. Two immediate questions spring to mind: 1) can Wemby maintain this elevated pace? And 2) Are we sure that even this is Wemby’s ceiling?

Where is Wemby’s ceiling?

For a player that can do literally everything on the basketball court at anywhere from “high” to “never before seen” levels, what is the upside? As a fun exercise, let’s take a look at Wemby’s best single-game performance in each fantasy category through the first month of the season and put it into one line:

Wemby sophomore bests: 50 points, 20 rebounds, 7 assists, 9 blocks, 5 steals, 8 3-pointers.

No one would expect anyone, even Wembanyama, to produce numbers like this on an every-night basis. But could he maintain his 30+ PPG, 13 RPG averages while increasing his assists back up to the 5-7 per game levels he achieved for stretches as a rookie? Could he keep knocking down 3-pointers at near league-leading pace on solid efficiency? Could he up his blocks and steals closer to more like 5 BPG and 2 SPG, numbers that would have once been considered mythical or impossible in today’s game?

I believe the answers to those questions are… yes. These are all achievable, potentially consistent upside goals for Wembanyama this season. And if he achieves them, even the 72 FP/G he’s averaged during the last week-plus could be conservative.

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Rest-of-season outlook

ESPN fantasy hoops drafts are still going strong, and new leagues will continue drafting in large numbers up to and through Christmas. For the entire drafting period, including during the regular season, Jokic has been the consensus No. 1 overall pick, with an ADP of 1.8. Wembanyama has been the consensus No. 2 pick, with an ADP of 3.2. Both of those are fair value for the two most elite big man producers in the NBA.

With that said, if I have the top pick in a draft now, just as I did in my preseason drafts, I’m taking Wembanyama No. 1 overall. Jokic is having a season for the ages and makes a more-than-worthy top overall pick, yet again.

But Wembanyama is the type of generational player where we just don’t know what may be possible, even as soon as this season.

Both Jokic and Wemby have shown an ability to average in the low-70s of fantasy points per game, with Jokic having established a month of this level of production versus Wemby’s week-plus. Nevertheless, Wemby has now demonstrated he can reach peak-Jokic levels of production, and he still has achievable upside.

So, while I wouldn’t blame anyone that wanted to take the relatively safe pick of Jokic at the top of a fantasy hoops draft, for my teams the first overall fantasy hoops pick (regardless of format) would still be Wembanyama.