Predicting Amorim's first 11 games at Man United — and how he compares to prior coaches
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Luis Miguel Echegaray, ESPN
On Sunday, Rúben Amorim begins his highly anticipated tenure as Manchester United manager away to Ipswich Town in the Premier League. The 39-year-old Portuguese manager will introduce himself to a fanbase anxiously hoping for a change of fortune after a dismal start to the campaign.
We’ll have to wait and see what kind of football we get, but it’s safe to say that to coach in the Premier League is one thing, but to do it as United’s manager is an entirely bigger mountain to climb. Why? Because this isn’t just about being 13th in the table, aching to enter the top four again. It’s not even about the shadows of Sir Alex Ferguson’s era continuously clouding the present. This is about a club with a prodigious history and a colossal global brand.
Amorim has 11 matches for the remainder of the calendar year to make an immediate impact, so why not predict their outcomes and compare them to previous Man United managers, including his mentor Jose Mourinho?
Before we begin, I am not using a statistical, data-driven, analytical formula here. This is driven by the ultimate guide that every analyst relies on: gut.
Ipswich Town, Nov. 24 (Premier League, Away)
This is the beginning of Amorim’s era and funnily enough it comes against Kieran McKenna, who was part of Jose Mourinho and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s coaching staff at Carrington. Due to the international break, Amorim will only have two days of full training sessions with the whole squad, meaning many players will have a limited understanding of his ideas and those on national team duty might not be at 100% fitness.
That’s why Amorim’s main task is to be defensively strong. Don’t concede and everything else will follow. United fans see fragments of his 3-4-3 vision, but it won’t be complete, and that’s okay. The 39-year-old wants to see character that he can build into an identity.
At halftime, it’s a stalemate, but as the game passes the hour mark, Amorim’s tactics come through. Marcus Rashford needs to make an impact for club and country, and Amorim challenges the English attacker, using him more centrally in this matchup.
It’s also an important game for Rasmus Højlund. With only one league goal all season, the Dane knows he needs to impress. Meanwhile, Bruno Fernandes pulls all the strings, setting up a goal and scoring another. The new manager bounce pays off and Amorim’s United take the three points back to Manchester.
Predicted score: Ipswich Town 0-2 Man United
Bodo/Glimt, Nov. 28 (Europa League, Home)
For the first time, Old Trafford welcomes Amorim as its manager, which should make for an electric atmosphere. The crowd welcomes him with open arms and there’s a newfound sense of optimism. The charismatic Portuguese coach soaks it all in before kickoff, and wants his team to make a statement.
It’s clear that the Premier League remains the biggest priority in his to-do list, but Amorim, who knows how special European nights can be, comes out with an attack-minded lineup. Look out for Alejandro Garnacho: His role under Amorim is intriguing to watch as he is required to cover a lot more ground on the left-hand side.
Man United are currently 15th in Europa League’s phase standings, one point below tonight’s visitors. Amorim won’t like that one bit and he’ll make sure the squad holds nothing back. The Red Devils demolish the Norwegians, concluding the night with a strong victory and a satisfied Old Trafford.
Predicted score: Man United 4-0 Bodo Glimt
Everton, Dec. 1 (Premier League, H)
With momentum under their wings, Man United are feeling good and seeing as this is Amorim’s first league game at home, the team hope to make it three wins from three. But Sean Dyche aims to counter the Portuguese manager’s tactics with some resilient defending and counter attacking ploys of his own. He also knows that the last time these sides met, his Toffees should have gotten something out of it.
Last March under Erik Ten Hag, United came out victorious with a 2-0 win, but it wasn’t a convincing performance as it required two penalties as well as stout defending against Everton, who took 23 shots. But today is a different story. It’s a physical game and even though the visitors get the opening goal, in the end Man United seal the three points.
One of Amorim’s goals is to ensure his team gives a 90-minute performance and that’s what happens here. Hojlund is now finding his feet and scores twice for United. Amorim promised goals and that’s exactly what United fans are seeing, making it nine goals in three games.
Predicted score: Man United 3-1 Everton
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Arsenal, Dec. 4 (Premier League, A)
The biggest test of Amorim’s tenure comes only three days after the Everton victory against an Arsenal side desperate for results in order to keep in the title race and the top four. Meanwhile, United are also back in the European race thanks to the impressive start under their new manager.
However, Mikel Arteta’s Gunners have not lost at home all season and this game, which is a midweek affair in the busiest month of the Premier League calendar, is a real test of how Amorim can handle his squad. December is a nightmare because there are matches every three or four days, so a lot depends on the health of the roster. Arsenal are also undefeated against Man United in their last three encounters so they’re not exactly the dream opponent for the Portuguese manager.
Regardless, this is also the type of fixture that Amorim relishes. This is why he took the job at Manchester United. He wants to awaken the giant. It ends as an entertaining affair with Manuel Ugarte, who played for Amorim at Sporting and delivered a MOTM performance in 2023 against Arsenal, shining in this one, too. The Red Devils show more progress and salvage a draw.
Predicted score: Arsenal 2-2 Man United
Fatigued after the battle against Arsenal, Man United encounter an uncomfortable matchup against Amorim’s compatriot Nuno Espírito Santo as Nottingham Forest find themselves in surprising waters, high up the table. But Forest are also tired, having played against Man City in their previous fixture. Forest’s record away from City Ground is remarkable, but November and December are major tests for the Tricky Trees on the road.
This is not a game for aesthetics and quickly becomes a physical back and forth. There might be a red card in this one and Amorim will see how feisty this league can be. But after being part of many tough matchups in the Portuguese league as player and manager, he’s no stranger to a good scrap. Casemiro scores the winner and United see themselves in top five territory.
Predicted score: Man United 2-1 Nottingham Forest
The matches continue to pile up but this is the last Europa League game of the year for Man United and Amorim wants to finish 2024 in strong fashion. A victory would further cement their place in the top eight, which would secure a Round of 16 spot.
But Czech side Viktoria Plzen are no pushovers, especially in this competition. They are undefeated and despite multiple draws, they beat Real Sociedad in the previous matchday. Ghanaian star Prince Adu is a handful and Man United, feeling the effects of a packed December schedule, find it hard to get much from this game. The home side score first and make it difficult for United to find opportunities, but the perseverance from Amorim’s team rewards them. Rashford finds the back of the net in the second half and the Red Devils earn a valuable point on matchday six.
Predicted score: Man United 1-1 Viktoria Plzen
The biggest game of Amorim’s career as Man United manager is here and if you think Pep Guardiola has forgotten what happened on Nov. 5 when Sporting destroyed Man City 4-1 in the Champions League, then think again.
That victory at José Alvalade Stadium remains a thorn in the Catalan manager’s side and he will want to make sure City respond in this highly-anticipated Manchester derby. Let’s not forget that this season has become one of the most competitive title races in recent history, too. The battle for top spot is tight, while the European places are contested by almost the entire top half of the table.
City need this game, while Amorim knows that a result can propel United’s momentum. They remain undefeated under the Portuguese head coach, but City have finally found form after the international break. Erling Haaland notches first for City, but Fernandes equalizes before the halftime whistle thanks to a penalty. It’s a relentless back and forth as Mateo Kovacic puts Man City ahead once again but Hojlund continues his strong streak and equalizes for the Red Devils.
Then, in the final moments of the game, a Hollywood finale presents itself as Garnacho writes himself in United folklore. Man United take three points and the game goes down as a classic.
Back when Amorim managed Braga, he led them to earn their first away victory at Benfica in 65 years, so nothing is impossible.
Predicted score: Man City 2-3 Man United
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United’s euphoria after their victory over Manchester City ends against Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham, who aims for a trophy in his second season as Spurs manager. There’s heavy squad rotation for United, as they have to prepare for a league game against Bournemouth in three days time.
This matchup comes too soon for the Red Devils, especially against an energetic, determined Tottenham who eased past a struggling Southampton side the game before. Spurs are at home and desperate for a trophy and as a result, Amorim suffers his first defeat. In the end, it might prove to be a blessing in disguise as Amorim’s goals for Man United go beyond the League Cup.
Predicted score: Tottenham Hotspur 2-0 Man United
Bournemouth, Dec. 22 (Premier League, H)
Andoni Iraola’s Cherries have kept improving week after week and they prove to be a challenging opponent for United. After rotating his team against Tottenham, Amorim brings back his best XI for this one. Ugarte and Luke Shaw deliver strong performances and despite conceding first, the Red Devils earn a victory and are now in top four territory.
By this game, United fans are finally seeing what consistency in the league looks like. There’s a long way to go, but the team is showing signs of a new era. Leny Yoro‘s return is a massive boost this month.
Predicted score: Man United 2-1 Bournemouth
Fixtures on Boxing Day are daunting as the wrath of December takes its toll on Premier League teams. Gary O’Neill’s Wolves are struggling this season but by the end of this month, they have found some momentum. Amorim’s first game at Molineux is a scrappy encounter and surprisingly, it’s his team that concedes first.
United find it hard to get going until the last 15 minutes when the substitutes impact the game. This match, however, turns into an anomaly under Amorim as United, looking tired, leave Wolverhampton with only a point.
Predicted score: Wolves 1-1 Man United
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Historically speaking, this fixture has almost always delivered. Last May at Old Trafford, for example, United won 3-2 thanks to goals from Kobbie Mainoo, Amad and Hojlund to boost their European ambitions. In this encounter, Newcastle arrive at Manchester after a thrilling battle with Aston Villa at St James’ Park on Boxing Day.
But Newcastle have done reasonably well in December and continue to have European aspirations of their own. So this game is another thriller that ultimately ends in a Manchester United win, thanks to a brace from Fernandes, another one from Rashford and a goal from Yoro, his first for the club.
Predicted score: Man United 4-2 Newcastle
How does Amorim’s predicted first 11 games compare to previous five permanent managers?
Record of Manchester United’s previous five managers in first 11 games (W-D-L):
Erik ten Hag, 2022: 7-0-4
Ole Gunnar Solsjkaer (caretaker role), 2018-19: 10-1-0
José Mourinho, 2016: 7-1-3
Louis van Gaal, 2014: 3-4-5
David Moyes, 2013: 6-2-3
LME’s prediction for Rúben Amorim’s record after 11 matches: 7-3-1
After making my predictions for Amorim’s first 11 games, we can see that his win record is the same as Erik ten Hag and Jose Mourinho’s. Only Ole Gunnar Solskajer has a better run after this number of games and I don’t see any other head coach replicating what he did in that timeframe. It was quite remarkable, hence why Solskajer was offered the permanent job shortly after taking over.
However, I think Amorim’s immediate impact will be more impressive because he will instill identity into the way Man United play, and make them a tougher side to win against. Confidence will return to Old Trafford. I think Amorim is the kind of manager that Man United have been waiting for. He is the man to finally help the club move on from under Sir Alex Ferguson’s shadow, and that’s not to say that the club needs to forget what Ferguson brought to the club. This is about the future of Man United and how Amorim can bring in a new era of resilient optimism.
