Ranking the top MVP candidates through 11 games: Will Josh Allen win his first?
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Brooke Pryor, ESPN Staff Writer
We’re more than halfway through the 2024 regular season, so it’s a good time to look at the leading candidates for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award.
Our panel — which includes Jeremy Fowler, Mike Tannenbaum, Matt Miller, Jordan Reid, Kalyn Kahler, Seth Walder, Dan Graziano, Field Yates, Matt Bowen, Aaron Schatz, Dan Orlovsky, Ben Solak and myself — ranked the top players in the MVP race through 11 weeks. We used those 13 sets of rankings to compile our consensus top-five contenders.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson still reigns supreme as our MVP front-runner, but the gap between him and the rest of the field has closed. To no one’s surprise, quarterbacks highlight the race. But who’s that rounding out the latest top five? A running back? In this economy? Believe it.
Here’s a look at the top MVP candidates, three players who just missed the cut and lingering questions after Week 11.
All odds are via ESPN BET.
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Top five | Who just missed?
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Big question
Current odds: +185
2024 stats: 2,876 passing yards, 25 TDs, 3 INTs, 75.2 QBR (584 rushing yards, 2 TDs)
Even after looking more human than superhero in his last outing against the Steelers, Jackson is our choice to win his third MVP. He held on to the top spot despite Sunday’s loss, during which he threw an interception and posted his lowest completion percentage (48.5%) since 2021.
With 25 touchdown passes, he already has more scores in 11 games than in his 2023 MVP season (24). Jackson is also second to only Bengals signal-caller Joe Burrow in QBR and passing yards. His path to another MVP award — and the Ravens’ to a divisional title — doesn’t get easier from here. Up next are the Chargers, who are holding opponents to a league-low 14.5 points per game. Jackson also has rematches with the Steelers and Browns left, giving him a shot at redemption or a window of opportunity for Bills quarterback Josh Allen to slip past him for his first MVP.
Current odds: +150
2024 stats: 2,543 passing yards, 18 TDS, 5 INTs, 72.5 QBR (316 rushing yards, 5 TDs)
Speaking of Allen, he made his most convincing case yet in Sunday’s win against the Chiefs and perennial MVP contender Patrick Mahomes. Allen had a touchdown and pick in the win, but his legs made the difference. He ran 12 times for 55 yards, though none was more crucial — for the win or his MVP candidacy — than his 26-yard fourth-quarter scramble for the game-sealing touchdown.
Perhaps the most impressive part of Allen’s MVP campaign is that he’s doing it without an established Robin to his Batman. In the aftermath of the Stefon Diggs trade, the Bills have relied on an ensemble cast rather than an elite top receiver. Still, Allen is finding success spreading the ball around. Eleven different Bills players have caught touchdown throws from him.
Current odds: +650
2024 stats: 2,492 passing yards, 20 TDs, 9 INTs, 59.2 QBR (39 rushing yards)
A month ago, Goff was barely on the MVP radar, but those days appear to be long gone. After perhaps his worst performance with the Lions in a five-interception game against the Texans, Goff authored the pièce de résistance in his MVP campaign against the Jaguars on Sunday. He threw for 412 yards with four touchdowns with just five incompletions. It was his second game of the season with a QBR over 93.
Goff isn’t just winning with gaudy passing numbers, he has also been efficient this season. Against the Titans, he completed just 12 of 15 attempts for 85 yards, but three of those completions were touchdown passes. He has an uphill battle to pass Jackson and Allen in the MVP race, but more performances like the one against the Jaguars would help him gain some ground.
Current odds: +1200
2024 stats: 2,404 passing yards, 15 TDs, 11 INTs, 67 QBR (167 rushing yards, 1 TD)
Is it even an MVP discussion without Mahomes? Though the Chiefs quarterback has been, dare we say, pedestrian — at least by his standards — he is undeniably a key factor in his team’s one-loss start. With 11 interceptions to 15 touchdowns this season — including two picks and three scores in the loss to the Bills — Mahomes is on pace to post a career-high 18 interceptions and a career-low 25 touchdown passes.
Although he has played most of this season without his top two wide receivers (Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice), Mahomes keeps the offense afloat. With DeAndre Hopkins now in the fold, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him make a late-season surge, especially with games against the Panthers and Raiders on deck.
Current odds: +6000
2024 stats: 1,137 rushing yards, 8 TDs; 210 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Who says this is just a quarterback award? Realistically, it’s a long shot this goes to a running back, but Barkley has been a dream addition for the Eagles’ offense — and a nightmare for Giants general manager Joe Schoen and the New York regime that let him walk.
Anchoring the league’s best rushing offense, Barkley is second only to Derrick Henry in total rushing yards. He leads the league in average yards per game (113.7) and rushes of 10 or more yards (26) and he has rushed for 100 yards in four of his past five games. He is on pace to set a new career high and eclipse his rookie mark of 11 touchdowns; his 5.8 yards per carry is also a career mark.
Just missed
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (+2500)
Don’t look now, but with a 75.1 QBR that ranks behind only Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, Murray is having one of his best pro seasons. He has thrown only three picks to 12 touchdowns, and he has continued to be a menace with his legs, averaging 8.1 yards per carry with four touchdowns.
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders (+2500)
Daniels’ past two outings were a reminder that he is indeed a rookie, but he’s still in the midst of an impressive season with 14 total touchdowns to just three interceptions. His 67.8 QBR ranks fifth in the league, ahead of heavyweights Mahomes and Jalen Hurts.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (+2500)
Herbert completed less than half of his attempts against the Bengals, but he still finished with nearly 300 passing yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, a team-leading 65 rushing yards and a game-winning drive. He doesn’t have some of the eye-popping stats as others do on this list, but he deserves a nod with only one interception in 10 games.
Also received top-10 votes: Bengals QB Joe Burrow, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, Ravens RB Derrick Henry, Broncos CB Pat Surtain II, Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, 49ers QB Brock Purdy, Steelers LB T.J. Watt, Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase, Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield, Rams QB Matthew Stafford, Texans QB C.J. Stroud, Broncos QB Bo Nix, Eagles WR A.J. Brown, Texans WR Nico Collins
Whose stock is up after 11 weeks
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals are 4-7 and have lost back-to-back games, but that’s hardly on Burrow, who averaged 392 passing yards in each loss. After missing seven games last season because of a wrist injury, Burrow leads the league in QBR (76.2), touchdown passes (27) and passing yards (3,028). The last player to win the MVP award while his team missed the playoffs was O.J. Simpson in 1973.
Whose stock is down after 11 weeks?
Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings: Yes, Darnold rebounded in a big way against the Titans on Sunday after throwing three interceptions and no touchdown passes versus Jacksonville in Week 10, but he has still cooled down after a hot start. Since Oct. 20, he has thrown eight touchdown passes to six interceptions. In the five games prior, he threw 11 touchdown passes and had four picks.
How does Jackson’s 2024 campaign differ from his previous MVP seasons in 2019 and 2023?
This season is all about Jackson even further improving his ability and efficiency as a passer. He is on pace to surpass last year’s career high of 51 pass plays of at least 20 yards.
While his touchdown numbers look more like those from 2019, when he posted 36 touchdown passes to six interceptions, his rushing numbers are more in line with 2023. In 2019, Jackson rushed for 1,206 yards, but this season he’s on track to rush for 902 (he had 821 last season).
