Matchup rankings: Start these players in Week 12

Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.

My weekly matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, listing all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying on seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.

“Adj. FPA,” or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players’ weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team’s personnel at that position.

Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor every unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my — and the ESPN fantasy staff’s — most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.

All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

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Quarterbacks

Matchups highlight: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (versus Baltimore Ravens). He has been both the quintessential hot-hand and matchups dynamo of late, averaging 21.9 fantasy points during the past four weeks with the most recent game, which came against the 30th-ranked Cincinnati Bengals, his high-water mark for the season (24.38). Herbert, who attempted 36 passes in that game and has exceeded 30 in four of his past six, will again be tasked with airing it out on Monday Night Football against the Ravens, who have an ideal-for-fantasy combination of a terrible pass defense and a loaded offense which increases pass-heavy game play. Sure, Russell Wilson struggled against them last week, but the Ravens have still surrendered a 23-point game or better to three of the past five quarterbacks they’ve faced.

Others to like:

Matchup to avoid: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (versus Philadelphia Eagles). He has been much more productive since the healthy returns of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, averaging 20.1 fantasy points during the past four weeks, but has still exhibited a troubling pattern of poor performance against tougher defenses this season. In two games with Kupp and Nacua that came against bottom-eight quarterback matchups — using seasonal Adjusted Fantasy Points Added data rather than past five weeks — Stafford averaged 12.2 points, and in two in which both were absent, he averaged 8.9. The Eagles have enjoyed one of the most significant turnarounds defending quarterbacks of any team this season, allowing only one to exceed 20 points in a game and one to score 15-plus in six games since the bye.

Running backs

Matchups highlight: Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants (versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Tommy DeVito’s installation as Giants starting quarterback will be the storyline of this game, at least on their side of things, but Tracy might well be the most intriguing fantasy play considering the matchups. Tracy has clearly taken hold of the backfield, playing 69% of the offensive snaps and averaging 15.0 carries to Devin Singletary‘s 28% and 5.5 the past four weeks, but much more importantly to this game, Tracy has averaged 18.3 routes to Singletary’s 6.5. In addition to the Buccaneers rating the second-best matchup for running backs during the past five weeks, they’ve allowed a second-most 2.55 PPR fantasy points per target to the position in that time. Considering the spread (5 ½ points entering the week, expect Tracy to play a more meaningful role in the passing game in addition to his usual rushing exploits.

Others to like:

Matchup to avoid: Chuba Hubbard, Carolina (versus Chiefs). The week has arrived for rookie Jonathon Brooks to make his NFL debut, and while he’ll initially slide into the backup role in place of Miles Sanders (ankle, week-to-week), it’s uncertain to what extent he’ll cut into Hubbard’s workload. Compounding matters is this matchup, the toughest for running backs all season. Only one running back has scored as many as 14 PPR fantasy points in a game against the Chiefs, James Cook (19.7) this past week, and that was mostly fueled by his receiving a pair of goal-to-go carries (both of which he converted). Among those held beneath 14, by the way, are three of the four best-scoring running backs for the season.

Wide receivers

Matchups highlight: Quentin Johnston, Chargers (versus Ravens). He has capitalized upon above-average-to-excellent matchups each of the past three weeks, to the tune of a 15.1 PPR fantasy point average, and here’s one of the best ones he’ll face yet. The Ravens have seen five different wide receivers score 16-plus points and another two score 12-plus the past five weeks, including an average of 31.9 to opponents’ top perimeter receivers (as Johnston is). As alluded to with Herbert above, the Chargers will presumably be throwing frequently in this game, and Johnston has a healthy 19.5% target share the past three weeks. There’s a good chance he’ll see 7-9 targets, and this defense has surrendered 1.83 points per target to the position this year.

Others to like:

Matchup to avoid: CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys (at Commanders). Dak Prescott‘s season-ending hamstring injury hasn’t caused Lamb’s fantasy production to crater, but it has definitely had an adverse impact. After averaging 17.6 PPR fantasy points per game and 1.66 per target in his first eight games, Lamb has averaged 12.7 and 1.21 in those categories in Cooper Rush‘s two starts. Worse yet, calls for Trey Lance to get a chance at quarterback only heighten concerns about Lamb’s fantasy stock. This matchup doesn’t help matters, as only one wide receiver has exceeded 15 points against the Commanders in the past five weeks (George Pickens, 20.5 in Week 10).

Tight ends

Matchups highlight: Hunter Henry, Patriots (at Dolphins). His targets have been on the rise of late, as in the past five weeks, he has a 21.8% target share, up from 18.3% in the season’s first five games. That’s the kind of workload fantasy managers want to see from a tight end, especially with as favorable a matchup as this upcoming. The Dolphins have afforded the position 20.5 points per game the past four weeks alone, fifth-most in the league, and while a lot of that came from a pair of top-shelf tight ends (Brock Bowers, Trey McBride), they also surrendered a combined 14.4 points to Dalton Kincaid and Quintin Morris in Week 9 and 8.4 points to Davis Allen in Week 10.

Matchup to avoid: Mark Andrews, Ravens (at Chargers). Though he has restored his fantasy TE1 status over the past six weeks, during which time his 13.0 PPR fantasy points per game average ranks eighth-best at the position, this isn’t one of his better matchups. After he scored only 4.2 points against the seventh-ranked Steelers in Week 11, he’s now facing the top-ranked Chargers, a defense that has seen only one tight end exceed 12 points all season (Travis Kelce, Week 4). For the season, the Chargers’ 1.31 points per target average afforded the position is the league’s fewest.