The teams that have impressed (TCU!) and disappointed (USC) one month into the women's hoops season
A month into the 2024-25 women’s college basketball season, we’ve already seen something that happened just once in the last two years: a South Carolina loss.
The defending national champion Gamecocks’ 43-game winning streak ended with a 77-62 defeat at UCLA on Nov. 24, vaulting the Bruins to the No. 1 spot in the rankings. South Carolina responded with a vengeance four days later with a 40-point blowout of ranked Iowa State that included a 32-0 Gamecocks run.
The loss was a reset — not the worst thing — for South Carolina. And now we’re doing the same: Reexamining what we anticipated in the preseason vs. what we’ve witnessed so far.
Did we predict TCU would be this good? Did we expect too much of Baylor and NC State? Are we making changes to our picks for the favorites to win the NCAA title and national player of the year?
As we open December — which includes the ACC/SEC Challenge on Wednesday and Thursday on ESPN/ESPN2, plus the now high-profile matchup between South Carolina and TCU on Sunday (7 p.m., ESPN2) — here are the things that have stood out for ESPN’s Michael Voepel, Charlie Creme and Alexa Philippou.
What have been the biggest surprises so far?
Creme: Hailey Van Lith and Sedona Prince are the best tandem in the country. All the talk of top duos In the preseason centered around Notre Dame‘s Hannah Hidalgo and Olivia Miles, USC‘s JuJu Watkins and Kiki Iriafen or even NC State’s Saniya Rivers and Aziaha James.
But the TCU duo has been better than all of them. The way Van Lith and Prince run the pick-and-roll makes it seem as if they have played their entire careers together, but it has only been eight games. Prince leads the country in blocks (4.3 BPG) and Van Lith ranks sixth in assists (7.1 APG), transforming her game since arriving in Fort Worth this season.
Philippou: UCLA was a preseason top-five team, but no win this season has been as impressive as the Bruins’ victory over the Gamecocks, the program’s first win over an AP No. 1. The overall performance was more stunning than the result: UCLA led by 20-plus until garbage time — the sort of dominance we’re used to seeing South Carolina enact on opponents. The Bruins displayed versatility, size and shooting, dictating the game on both ends. Lauren Betts is a two-way star in the paint, but their depth was overwhelming. UCLA brought impact players Janiah Barker, Gabriela Jaquez and Londynn Jones off the bench against the Gamecocks.
It’s a long season and no campaign is defined by a November contest. But for a team searching for its first NCAA Final Four, UCLA looks well-poised to finally have a breakthrough year.
Voepel: We knew TCU and Iowa would be potentially underrated teams in the preseason. Their success so far isn’t too surprising, but it’s worth noting.
No one was sure how Iowa would look after the Caitlin Clark era. The Hawkeyes also lost three other guards — Kate Martin, Gabbie Marshall and Molly Davis — who played significant roles, and head coach Lisa Bluder retired. Now under Jan Jensen, Bluder’s longtime assistant, Iowa is 8-0. The Hawkeyes won both their recent games at the Cancun Challenge despite Villanova transfer Lucy Olsen, their leading scorer, out with a cut to her knee. We will know more over the next two weeks as Iowa faces Tennessee, Iowa State and Michigan State.
0:47
Dawn Staley on loss to UCLA: ‘We ran into a buzz saw today’
South Carolina coach Dawn Staley credits the play of UCLA after the Bruins ended the Gamecocks’ program-record 43-game winning streak.
What’s something you believed in the preseason that’s now in doubt?
Philippou: In October I believed the national championship was a three-horse race between South Carolina, UConn and USC. The last 10 days have turned that notion on its head. USC and South Carolina looked vulnerable in losses to Notre Dame and UCLA, respectively. It seemed like the Irish had announced themselves as surefire contenders, but then they suffered consecutive losses to TCU and unranked Utah. The Bruins’ rout of South Carolina also ensured their place in the title conversation.
Whether this all represents early inconsistency or true parity remains to be seen, but it has made the field feel fairly open four weeks in.
Voepel: The teams I picked to win the ACC (Notre Dame), Big Ten (USC) and Big 12 (Iowa State) now seem a bit in doubt. The ACC could be a free-for-all among the likes of Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Stanford, Louisville, Florida State and, despite the rough start, NC State. TCU has moved to the spot of Big 12 favorite, and same for UCLA in the Big Ten. Of course, in another month, it all could be different again.
Creme: I was certain in this new era of the transfer portal that it would take teams constructed so significantly of new players time to develop chemistry. Maryland, Ohio State, TCU and UCLA have proved otherwise. All four have exceeded expectations — they are a combined 31-0 — while relying heavily on players in their first year in the program. The Terps have 10 new players. Three of the Buckeyes’ top four scorers are new faces and they have kept Ohio State afloat while top scorer Cotie McMahon nurses an injury.
LSU and Iowa are two more teams that have incorporated transfers seamlessly and are unbeaten. Coaches are not only leaning on transfers to build their programs, but have also sped up the process in making it successful.
1:23
Women’s Basketball Roundup: Monster performances all around
No. 23 Alabama dominates Clemson, Clara Strack puts up huge numbers for No. 14 Kentucky and Tennessee dominates Western Carolina in an eventful day of SEC women’s basketball.
Who is a team or player that is under the radar?
Creme: When was the last time an unbeaten Tennessee team was talked about this little, especially one that leads the nation in scoring? First-year coach Kim Caldwell has completely remade the Lady Vols in her image. Tennessee presses all over the court, shoots 3-pointers freely and runs at any opportunity. Not only are the Lady Vols the country’s top point-producing team, they are also the leaders in steals and offensive rebounds.
This team might not look like the traditional Lady Vols, but Pat Summitt would love the production in those two categories. The schedule hasn’t been daunting, but so far the coaching change has been a success.
Philippou: LSU’s Flau’Jae Johnson has also lived up to the billing early as one of the SEC preseason players of the year, ranking 10th in the country in scoring (22.3 PPG) on 55% shooting (43% from 3) — all of which would be career-best marks.
Voepel: Keep an eye on Kentucky and the post targets for transfer point guard Georgia Amoore (8.3 assists per game). Clara Strack averaged 4.5 PPG and 4.1 RPG as a Virginia Tech freshman last season playing behind fifth-year superstar center Elizabeth Kitley. Having followed former Hokies coach Kenny Brooks to Kentucky like Amoore, the 6-foot-5 Strack now leads the 7-0 Wildcats in scoring (18.3) and rebounding (11.0), plus averages 4.0 assists and 2.9 blocks. Teammate Teonni Key, a transfer from North Carolina, averages 12.3 points, 9.6 rebounds and 3.6 blocks. Both had double-doubles in handing Illinois its first loss at the Music City Classic last week, and the Wildcats next face the Tar Heels, Key’s former team, on Thursday.
Name a team or player that has been disappointing.
Creme: Despite being surrounded by a better supporting cast, Watkins’ game hasn’t grown. She has still shown flashes of brilliance as a sophomore, but Watkins’ scoring is down, her 3-point shooting (25.6%) has gotten worse and she is still committing more than four turnovers per game. Watkins has still looked too reliant on getting to the free throw line and hasn’t played as freely as I expected with Iriafen drawing attention. As a result, USC’s offense looks stagnant at times and the Trojans have not looked like one of the country’s best teams.
Voepel: Iowa State was No. 8 in the preseason AP poll. But the Cyclones, now ranked No. 20, lost 87-75 at Northern Iowa on Nov. 20 and weren’t even competitive in their 76-36 loss to South Carolina on Thanksgiving. That was a painful game to watch, with Iowa State scoring just nine points in the first half. Iowa State has a chance to regroup for two big games this month: vs. rival Iowa, ranked No. 17, on Dec. 11 and vs. No. 2 UConn on Dec. 17.
Philippou: NC State, a Final Four team last season, fell out of the most recent AP poll after starting the year 4-3, although all its losses were to current top-10 teams (South Carolina, TCU and LSU). The Wolfpack still have an exciting group of guards who can get hot at any time, but they have struggled to replace the interior presence of River Baldwin and Mimi Collins. And it hasn’t helped that transfer Caitlin Weimar is out indefinitely following preseason hip surgery. The Wolfpack were outrebounded 44-24 by LSU in their largest loss of the season.
Based on play to this point, who’s your player of the year?
Creme: Paige Bueckers. She was my pick in the preseason and the gap has widened in the first month. With a 62.7% field goal percentage and a 4:1 assist-to-turnover ratio, Bueckers’ efficiency is staggering. Her ability to play multiple positions only enhances Bueckers’ value, and she has scored 29 points in each of UConn’s biggest games, victories over North Carolina and Ole Miss.
Voepel: Bueckers, for the reasons Charlie mentions. However, centers Prince (20.1 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 4.2 BPG) of TCU and Betts (19.3, 12.0, 2.1) of UCLA have entered the NPOY conversation, which previously focused on guards Bueckers and Watkins.
Philippou: Bueckers at the moment. She will have ample opportunity to cement her case this month, when the Huskies face Louisville in Brooklyn, Notre Dame on the road, Iowa State at Mohegan Sun and USC at home.
Still, Hidalgo should remain in the conversation even as Notre Dame is coming off a pair of losses and has dropped in the rankings.
Make one bold prediction for the rest of the season.
Voepel: Duke will win its first ACC tournament title (and ninth overall) since 2013.
Philippou: Four teams will earn the No. 1 ranking in the AP poll by the end of the season — the most change at the top spot we’ve seen since 2020-21.
Creme: Two conferences will have at least 10 teams in the NCAA tournament. The latest bracketology projection has double-digit selections for the ACC, Big Ten and SEC.
With conference realignment creating these massively sized leagues, the number of NCAA tournament teams from each was bound to grow. Couple that with some missed opportunities by some prominent mid-majors — limiting the likelihood of at-large bids coming from the smaller conferences — plus better-than-expected Novembers from teams like Cal, Georgia Tech, Kansas and Penn State, paved the way for any of the power conferences to have a record number of bids.
Which team is your pick right now to win the 2025 NCAA title?
Creme: I’m sticking with UConn, and Bueckers is a big reason. The Huskies have yet to miss the Final Four in any season in which she has been healthy — and all three of those teams significantly lacked depth. Through one month this UConn team has remained healthy, could have veteran additions in Caroline Ducharme and Aubrey Griffin returning during the Big East season and has yet to show a significant weakness while starting the season 6-0. Four of the Huskies’ next five games are against ranked opponents. That will determine if UConn truly is the favorite heading into the new year.
Philippou: I’m switching my pick from South Carolina to UConn. The Gamecocks rebounded well from their UCLA loss with a pair of 40-point wins, but their offensive woes aren’t offering much confidence, at least at this point, that they will replicate last year’s magic. UConn has yet to face a top-10 opponent, but the guard-wing-post trio of Bueckers, Azzi Fudd and freshman Sarah Strong could be dangerous come March.
Voepel: I’m staying with South Carolina to repeat. Coach Dawn Staley has the challenge of keeping this team motivated and focused on improving. That’s where the early loss likely helped. There’s one change in my preseason Final Four picks, though: I’m swapping UCLA in for USC, while sticking with South Carolina, UConn and Texas.
