NFC North: How Lions, Vikings or Packers could win the division

Just how good is the NFC North as we enter the final five-week stretch of the 2024 regular season?

The Detroit Lions (11-1), Minnesota Vikings (10-2) and Green Bay Packers (9-3) hold three of the top four records in the NFC and three of the top seven in the entire NFL.

It’s the first time since the 1970 merger that three teams in the same division have entered Week 14 with a win percentage of at least .750, according to ESPN Research.

The 4-8 Chicago Bears fired coach Matt Eberflus after a loss on Thanksgiving, but they nearly beat each of their division rivals the previous three weeks — losing by a combined seven points.

Beginning Thursday night when the Lions host the Packers (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video), every NFC North team plays each other over the final five weeks. Will the Lions hold on to win the division for the second straight season? Will the Vikings or Packers knock them off the top? Will the Bears play the spoiler roll under interim head coach Thomas Brown?

ESPN NFL Nation reporters Eric Woodyard (Lions), Kevin Seifert (Vikings), Rob Demovsky (Packers) and Courtney Cronin (Bears) set the table as we head into the stretch run:

Detroit Lions (11-1)

FPI’s overall ranking: 1
Chances to win division: 84.7%
Chances to make the playoffs: 100%
Chances to make/win Super Bowl: 38.2%/24.3%
Remaining games: vs. Packers, vs. Bills, at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings

Why Lions could win the division

From top to bottom, the Lions are arguably the NFL’s most balanced team on offense, defense and special teams. At 11-1, they are off to their best start in franchise history with divisional wins against Minnesota, Green Bay and Chicago. Detroit is also the NFL’s only undefeated team on the road (6-0). After an NFC championship run last season, the Lions have positioned themselves to repeat as champions of the NFC North. This squad is legit.

Why Lions could make a deep playoff run

In 2023, Detroit ended a plethora of notable franchise droughts with its first postseason victory in more than 30 years, against the Los Angeles Rams, before falling one game shy of a Super Bowl appearance with a loss to the San Francisco 49ers. With most of the core of that roster back, the Lions have had an even better season, and that postseason experience should prove to be invaluable as foundational players like Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery aim to reach the next level.

Biggest concern going forward

Injuries. Although Detroit has been hit with a boatload of injuries on defense, coordinator Aaron Glenn has been able to develop players to backfill those roles. But can they sustain that success if more players get hurt? Pro Bowl edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, LB Alex Anzalone, DL John Cominsky, LB Derrick Barnes, DL Marcus Davenport, S Ifeatu Melifonwu, LB Malcolm Rodriguez, DL Mekhi Wingo and special teams ace/linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin are on injured reserve. This is certainly a concern.

Lions’ X factor player

Lions WR Jameson Williams. At his best, Williams has proved to be the No. 2 receiving option who can open the offense as a deep-ball threat opposite St. Brown. However, some of his decisions, which forced him serve a two-game suspension for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing substances policy, have caused concern. Against Chicago on Thanksgiving, he also committed a taunting penalty in the fourth quarter that cost Detroit 15 yards and could have contributed to a loss, but he addressed the team afterward, apologizing for his mistake. There’s no question about his ability on the field, but he has to make better decisions down the stretch. — Eric Woodyard

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Minnesota Vikings (10-2)

FPI’s overall ranking: 7
Chances to win division: 10.0%
Chances to make the playoffs: 99.8%
Chances to make/win Super Bowl: 10.7%/5.2%
Remaining games: vs. Falcons, vs. Bears, at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions

Why Vikings could win the division

It’ll be tough and will require regression from the Lions. The Vikings have the NFL’s fourth-most difficult remaining schedule, and all six games are against NFC teams — maximizing the impact of the conference-record tiebreaker. But the Lions’ defensive injuries have come at a time when the Vikings’ offense, particularly quarterback Sam Darnold, is playing their best. If they can make up one game over the Lions during the next five weeks, while holding off the Packers, the Vikings’ Week 18 game at Detroit would be for the NFC North title.

Why Vikings could make a deep playoff run

Playoff games typically come against a conference’s best quarterbacks, which puts extra emphasis on the quality of a defense. The Vikings’ defense has been the NFL’s best for most of this season. Through 12 games it leads the league in interceptions (18) and ranks No. 4 in opposing QBR. The Vikings have trailed by more than one score in three games, and never by more than 13 points. If your defense can keep every game close, you’re well on your way to a deep playoff run regardless of the performance of the rest of the team.

Biggest concern going forward

For most of the season, the Vikings have qualified as the NFL’s oldest team based on snap-weighed analysis performed by ESPN’s Bill Barnwell. In other words, they are mostly relying on a relatively small group of veterans to play the majority of their snaps. Coaches have done what they can to give some of the oldest players, including safety Harrison Smith (35) and cornerback Stephon Gilmore (34), rest during the week. But unless they expand their rotations, the Vikings will enter the playoffs with a lot of wear on their veteran players.

Vikings’ X factor player

It might seem odd for a quarterback to fall into this category, but every step forward represents new territory for Darnold. He has never led a team through a playoff push, much less started a playoff game. He is playing the best football of his professional career, having thrown for 811 yards and seven touchdowns without an interception in his past three games, but the pressure will increase from here. The Vikings need him to maintain his current level of play and pair it with the defense’s continued aptitude in order to be serious Super Bowl contenders. — Kevin Seifert

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Green Bay Packers (9-8)

FPI’s overall ranking: 4
Chances to win division: 5.3%
Chances to make the playoffs: 99.1%
Chances to make/win Super Bowl: 14.4%/8.0%
Remaining games: at Lions, at Seahawks, vs. Saints, at Vikings, vs. Bears

Why Packers could win the division

They probably can’t if they don’t beat Detroit on Thursday night. A loss would put the Packers three games behind with four to play, and they would lose the tiebreaker. But this team has played some of its best football since that Week 9 loss to the Lions at Lambeau Field. The Packers have won their past two games in blowout fashion by a combined score of 68-27, and quarterback Jordan Love is finally over the knee and groin injuries that slowed him early.

Why Packers could make a deep playoff run

The run game. Not only has Josh Jacobs been effective, but coach Matt LaFleur hasn’t been afraid to use him. In the past, LaFleur rarely let Aaron Jones top 20 carries per game, but he knows Jacobs can handle more. He ranks fourth in the NFL with 221 carries and he’s had three games with 25 or more. That’s a winning formula in both the regular season and the playoffs.

Biggest concern going forward

Since the pass rush seems to be improving, there’s something a little nitpicky here (though it’s not nitpicky to LaFleur): defensive penalties, specifically when the Packers are simply lining up. They were flagged for being offside four times in the past game alone and lead the league with 12 such penalties (including ones declined). “It’s become such a problem,” LaFleur said, “and it’s going to kill us.” In all, they’ve had 20 total penalties for offside, neutral zone infractions and encroachment, which gives opponents either a free play or a free five yards.

Packers’ X factor player

Brandon McManus. Since the Packers signed him Oct. 16, he has missed one kick. He is 10-for-11 on field goals and has converted all 16 extra point attempts. Remember, the Packers missed a 41-yard field goal late in the playoff loss to the 49ers last season. Before that game, LaFleur joked to the Fox broadcast crew that he prayed when then-kicker Anders Carlson took the field. LaFleur said he’s so confident in McManus that, “I don’t even really watch it all the time now. I just kind of move on to the next thing.” — Rob Demovsky

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Chicago Bears (4-8)

Remaining games: at 49ers, at Vikings, vs. Lions, vs. Seahawks, at Packers

Why Bears can shake up the division

Chicago has been right there in every divisional game, losing three straight to Green Bay, Minnesota and Detroit by a combined seven points. The Bears’ 4-8 record does not speak to their ability to compete against three playoff-bound teams after rookie quarterback Caleb Williams had Chicago’s offense in position to win each of these games in the fourth quarter (and overtime with the Vikings). With a clean slate after the firing of coach Matt Eberflus, the Bears should look as strong or stronger under interim coach Thomas Brown when they face all three teams in the NFC North in Weeks 15-18.

What impact has Brown had on Williams?

A pretty darn big one. In three games since Shane Waldron was fired and Brown was promoted to offensive coordinator, Williams’ Total QBR has gone from 39 to 77, his completion percentage has increased by 3% and his yards per dropback have jumped from 4.9 to 6.2. Williams has thrown five touchdown passes and hasn’t turned the ball over since Brown’s first game calling plays in Week 11. The rookie threw three touchdown passes against Detroit while orchestrating a furious second-half comeback, becoming the only quarterback to achieve that feat against the Lions’ defense this season.

How far are the Bears from challenging for the division title?

Had Chicago taken advantage of a lighter schedule from Weeks 1-10, the Bears could be closer to closing the gap between themselves and Super Bowl favorite Detroit, as evidenced by how Williams had his team in position to tie or win the game outright on Thanksgiving. The NFC North is going to be a tough division for a while. The Bears have a quarterback to contend with everyone else, but investing in one of the league’s worst offensive lines this offseason and nailing their head-coaching search will determine just how far away they are from being the best team in the division in 2025.

Which players do the Bears need to assess over the last five games?

Williams and his ability to grow are the focal point of Chicago’s final five games. That will provide the answers to where the Bears need to direct their search for their next coach in January. For a while it looked like wide receiver Keenan Allen, 32, might be one-and-done in Chicago, but he has played a significant role in the Bears’ ability to claw back in three recent division games. Part of the intrigue for head-coaching candidates is the talent around the quarterback. If Allen continues to show up big for the offense, the Bears will need to consider giving him an extension. — Courtney Cronin