Our guide to every Week 14 NFL game: Matchup previews, predictions, picks and nuggets

The Week 14 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.

Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection and a look at the playoff picture. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full Week 14 slate, including an NFC West battle between the Seahawks and Cardinals and Kirk Cousins‘ return to Minnesota. It all ends with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Bengals and Cowboys on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:
CLE-PIT | NYJ-MIA | ATL-MIN
NO-NYG | CAR-PHI | JAX-TEN
LV-TB | SEA-ARI | BUF-LAR
CHI-SF | LAC-KC | CIN-DAL

Thursday: DET 34, GB 31
Bye: BAL, DEN, HOU, IND, NE, WSH

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: PIT -6.5 (43.5 O/U)

Browns storyline to watch: Browns defensive end Myles Garrett single-handedly wrecked the Steelers’ plans on offense in the team’s Week 12 matchup, a Browns win. Garrett recorded three first-half sacks and a forced fumble that earned him Player of the Week honors. Pittsburgh is sure to have a better plan to limit Garrett, who is looking for a bounce-back game after registering a season-low pressure rate of 3.8% in the Browns’ Week 13 loss to the Broncos. — Daniel Oyefusi

Steelers storyline to watch: The Steelers lead the league with 25 takeaways, including three in their first matchup against Cleveland. In that game, though, the Steelers managed only seven points off those takeaways. In his five games as the Browns’ starting quarterback, Jameis Winston has thrown 10 touchdowns to seven interceptions. The key to the Steelers avenging their Week 12 loss is to capitalize on those turnovers with more points. — Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: Cleveland hasn’t swept the regular-season series with Pittsburgh since 1988 and is looking to win three straight meetings for the first time since a seven-game run from 1986 to 1989.

Bold prediction: Steelers defensive tackle Keeanu Benton will record his first sack of the season. Benton’s 12% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle ranks ninth at the position. The fact he has zero sacks thus far is fluky. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Steelers have pretty much locked up a spot in the playoffs, with 99.3% chance to make the postseason. But they have a 71% chance at winning the AFC North, with the Ravens lurking at 29%. Read more.

Injuries: Browns | Steelers

Fantasy X factor: Steelers wide receiver George Pickens. Pickens has been on fire, scoring 16-plus fantasy points in four of his past six games while averaging 7.6 targets. His rapport with quarterback Russell Wilson has been a catalyst for this statistical production, and now he faces a Browns defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to receivers. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Browns are 8-4-1 against the spread (ATS) as at least four-point underdogs under coach Kevin Stefanski. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Steelers 24, Browns 20
Moody’s pick: Steelers 24, Browns 10
Walder’s pick: Steelers 23, Browns 14
FPI prediction: PIT, 59.4% (by an average of 3.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Jeudy’s Denver return ‘a lot of boos … catches’ … Steelers OLB Highsmith expected back Sunday … Browns perform noodle game celebration vs. Broncos

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: TEN -3.5 (39.5 O/U)

Jaguars storyline to watch: With Trevor Lawrence on injured reserve (concussion/shoulder), quarterback Mac Jones now begins a five-game audition for a chance to compete for a potential starting job in 2025. It’s going to be tough: The Titans have the league’s top-ranked pass defense (allowing 171.8 yards per game). Jones struggled in his two starts this season, leading the Jaguars to a combined 13 points and 313 yards. — Michael DiRocco

Titans storyline to watch: The Titans’ run defense was gashed for 264 yards by the Commanders last week. It will be critical for Tennessee to bounce back against the Jaguars, who will be without Lawrence. “We’ve got to get back to stopping the run, populate the line of scrimmage and properly fit out gaps,” defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson said. “We can’t allow what happened last week to happen again. It’s time for us to bow up and show what we really can do against the run game.” — Turron Davenport

Stat to know: The Jaguars have nine straight road losses dating to last season, which is the longest active streak in the NFL.

Bold prediction: Titans kicker Nick Folk will go 4-for-4 on field goals, including two from 50-plus yards. He has quietly turned into one of the very best kickers in the NFL and is 11-of-12 from 50-plus yards the past two seasons. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Jaguars and Titans are both among the seven teams with the best odds at the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL draft, per ESPN’s FPI. Jacksonville is in third, currently holding a 20.7% chance at the top selection. Read more.

Injuries: Jaguars | Titans

Fantasy X factor: Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley. Last week, the revenge game narrative worked out for Browns receiver Jerry Jeudy (40.5 fantasy points against the Broncos). Now, Ridley faces his former team, the Jaguars, who allow the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. He has seen eight or more targets in five of his past eight games. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their past six games. Jones is 3-14 ATS in his past 17 starts. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Titans 24, Jaguars 14
Moody’s pick: Titans 28, Jaguars 14
Walder’s pick: Jaguars 19, Titans 16
FPI prediction: TEN, 58.8% (by an average of 3.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Why the Jaguars placed QB Lawrence on injured reserve … WR Burks to miss rest of season with knee injury

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -5.5 (44.5 O/U)

Jets storyline to watch: Aaron Rodgers & Co. still are looking for their first 30-point game. The last time the Jets went this far into the season without scoring 30 in a game was in 2020 when they finished 2-14 with no 30-point games. But history says it won’t happen this week. The offense has scored only three touchdowns in the past six trips to Miami. The Jets’ last 30-point performance in Miami was in 2014, which also was their last win in South Florida. — Rich Cimini

Dolphins storyline to watch: After last week’s loss to the Packers, the Dolphins probably need to win out to keep their remote playoff hopes alive. Luckily for them, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has never lost to the Jets. The Dolphins’ lone loss to New York since 2020 came in 2022 when Tagovailoa was injured. Sunday’s game could also be a bounce-back opportunity for a Miami run game that has averaged 63.3 yards per game over the past four weeks. The Jets’ defense has allowed more than 107.3 rushing yards per game in that same span. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: Rodgers now has 34 consecutive starts with fewer than 300 passing yards. No other quarterback has an active streak of at least 20 starts.

Bold prediction: A Dolphins wide receiver will catch a 40-plus-yard touchdown on a go route or deep fade. Miami has the lowest rate of throws of 20-plus air yards in the league this year, but the Jets run the single-high coverage 64% of the time (third most). The Dolphins could take a shot or two downfield against a struggling Sauce Gardner. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Dolphins’ chances at the playoffs will increase to 13.8% with a win and drop to 2.3% with a loss (independent of other results), per ESPN Analytics. The Jets would be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss. Read more.

Injuries: Jets | Dolphins

Fantasy X factor: Tagovailoa. The Jets’ defense has struggled, allowing 24-plus fantasy points to four quarterbacks since Week 6. Tagovailoa has scored 23-plus fantasy points in three straight games. He has the supporting cast and an offensive-minded head coach in Mike McDaniel to take full advantage of this matchup. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Jets are 0-3 ATS as underdogs this season and 2-9 ATS in their past 11 games as underdogs. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Dolphins 28, Jets 17
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 24, Jets 20
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 24, Jets 20
FPI prediction: MIA, 57.2% (by an average of 2.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Rodgers: Hope to finish well, but not out to prove anything … Cold weather affected Dolphins, LB Brooks says

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1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: MIN -6 (45.5 O/U)

Falcons storyline to watch: Quarterback Kirk Cousins is coming off perhaps the worst three-game stretch of his 13-year career going into a road game against his former team. The pressure is certainly on given the Falcons’ three-game losing streak has cost them their once-commanding NFC South lead. Cousins has six interceptions in the past three games, and the Vikings lead the league in the category (18). — Marc Raimondi

Vikings storyline to watch: Quarterback Sam Darnold‘s past three games have been his best of the season, with a combined 811 yards, seven total touchdowns and no interceptions. His performance will be on center stage Sunday as he is playing at a notably higher level than his predecessor, Cousins, and with a $10 million contract that is a fraction of the Falcons QB’s deal. Coach Kevin O’Connell believes Darnold is playing with “almost a surgical level of ‘doing my job’ and not trying to do too much, but also knowing that ‘my job might be to try to put a ball in a tight window here and there.'” — Kevin Seifert

Stat to know: Cousins is the first quarterback with zero passing touchdowns and six interceptions in a six-game span since Cleveland’s Brian Hoyer in 2014.

Bold prediction: Darnold will throw for 300 yards and won’t be sacked. Minnesota has a major advantage in the trenches on offense as it ranks fifth in pass block win rate (68.1%). The Falcons rank 29th in pass rush win rate (32.9%). — Walder

What’s at stake: According to ESPN Analytics, the Falcons have the highest chance at the NFC’s fourth seed (30%), and the Vikings have the highest chance at the fifth seed (49%). Read more.

Injuries: Falcons | Vikings

Fantasy X factor: Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Darnold faces a Falcons defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, which directly benefits Jefferson, who’s averaging 8.3 targets per game. Atlanta also gives up the third-most receptions to receivers. Expect a big day from Jefferson and Jordan Addison. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Falcons are 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season (0-4 ATS in the past four). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Vikings 24, Falcons 21
Moody’s pick: Vikings 38, Falcons 27
Walder’s pick: Vikings 27, Falcons 26
FPI prediction: MIN, 62.8% (by an average of 4.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: What QB Cousins, Falcons need to do to regain playoff form … NFC North: Will Lions, Vikings or Packers win the division? … How new QB Jones affects Vikings, Darnold, McCarthy

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1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: NO -4 (40.5 O/U)

Saints storyline to watch: With Taysom Hill out for the season (torn ACL), the Saints are now without three offensive players who were responsible for 11 touchdowns: Hill, RB Rashid Shaheed (knee) and WR Chris Olave (concussion). That means they’ll likely continue to lean on receivers Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kevin Austin Jr., two players the team has leaned on in the past three games under interim coach Darren Rizzi. The Saints are getting healthier in other ways, though, with running back Kendre Miller and wide receiver Bub Means returning to practice. — Katherine Terrell

Giants storyline to watch: The Giants are trying to snap a seven-game skid and will do so with Drew Lock starting at quarterback. Coach Brian Daboll said he’s going with Lock because he did some good things against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, and they want to see what he can do with a full week of preparation. He’ll get a chance against New Orleans’ defense, which ranks 29th in passing yards per game (249.1). — Jordan Raanan

Stat to know: Saints quarterback Derek Carr has a 6-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio since returning in Week 9 from an oblique injury. That’s the most passing touchdowns without an interception by any quarterback in that span.

Bold prediction: Giants running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. will average at least 5 yards per carry. This should be doable considering the Saints have the 31st-ranked run defense by EPA (minus-14.68). — Walder

What’s at stake: As it stands, the Giants have a 31% chance to earn the No. 1 draft pick in 2025, which is the highest by any team in the league, per ESPN Analytics. That figure will jump to 42% with a loss to the Saints and would fall to 10% with a win. Read more.

Injuries: Saints | Giants

Fantasy X factor: Saints tight end Juwan Johnson. New Orleans is running low on receiving playmakers. Last week, against the Rams, Johnson caught 5 of 7 targets for 36 yards. While the matchup against the Giants is difficult for tight ends, the targets should still be there. Johnson could be a solid pickup this week for managers scrambling for options in deeper formats. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Over the past three seasons, the Saints are 7-15 ATS as favorites. They are 0-1 outright in that role this season. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Saints 28, Giants 16
Moody’s pick: Saints 27, Giants 20
Walder’s pick: Saints 22, Giants 16
FPI prediction: NO, 64.5% (by an average of 5.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Torn ACL ends Saints TE Hill’s season … Giants’ Nabers on ‘drops’ comments, up-and-down rookie year

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1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: PHI -13 (45.5 O/U)

Panthers storyline to watch: The Eagles have NFL rushing leader Saquon Barkley, who is averaging 124.9 yards per game. The Panthers are allowing a league-worst 160.1 rushing yards per game, including 236 yards last week against Tampa Bay. That’s pretty much all you need to know, aside from the fact that Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is playing well, passing for 263-plus yards in each of the past two games. He has not had an interception in three straight games. — David Newton

Eagles storyline to watch: Philadelphia’s defense has been playing at an elite clip since its Week 5 bye. The Eagles are first in points allowed (13.4 per game), yards per play (4.1), sacks (30) and forced fumbles (15) from Week 6 on. They’ll face a Carolina offense that is ranked 30th both in yards (292) and points per game (18.1). — Tim McManus

Stat to know: With a loss, Young would be the fourth quarterback since 2000 to lose 20 of his first 25 career starts, joining Blaine Gabbert (2011-13), Justin Fields (2021-22) and Trevor Lawrence (2021-22), who all started 5-20.

Bold prediction: Eagles linebacker Zack Baun will record 12-plus combined tackles. The Panthers have run the ball well lately, and I think they’re going to rely on the ground game because their receivers will struggle to get open against the Eagles’ secondary. Baun is recording a tackle on 17% of plays. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Panthers will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, marking their seventh straight season without a playoff appearance (the longest drought in franchise history). Read more.

Injuries: Panthers | Eagles

Fantasy X factor: Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown. Barkley is set to dominate because the Panthers give up the most fantasy points to running backs. But don’t forget about Brown, who is in a great spot against Carolina cornerback Jaycee Horn. With the success DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Evans had against Horn recently, Brown has the potential to be a top receiver this week. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Both teams enter this game on four-game cover streaks, which is tied for the longest active streak in the NFL. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Eagles 28, Panthers 24
Moody’s pick: Eagles 28, Panthers 16
Walder’s pick: Eagles 23, Panthers 10
FPI prediction: PHI, 85.7% (by an average of 16.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Bucs’ Mayfield thinks Panthers’ Young can ‘do anything he wants’ … Secret of the Eagles’ 2024 success? Defense has done a 180

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: TB -6.5 (46.5 O/U)

Raiders storyline to watch: Can Raiders rookie tight end Brock Bowers continue his record ascent against the NFL’s No. 30 pass defense (258.3 yards allowed per game)? Bowers, who has 27 catches and two touchdowns in his past three games combined, needs only three receptions against the Buccaneers to surpass Sam LaPorta‘s year-old record for most catches by a rookie tight end in a single season. LaPorta caught 86 passes for the Lions in 2023. — Paul Gutierrez

Buccaneers storyline to watch: The Bucs are 2-0 since their bye week. A win combined with a Falcons loss would move them into sole possession of first place in the NFC South. Over the past two weeks, the Bucs have averaged 196.5 yards on the ground — fourth best in the league. But star rookie running back Bucky Irving is dealing with a hip pointer, and the Raiders are decent against the run (11th in the league, giving up 114.75 yards per game). — Jenna Laine

Stat to know: The Buccaneers had their third overtime game in 2024 against the Panthers last week (26-23 win). One more OT matchup would set a franchise record for a single season.

Bold prediction: Raiders defensive tackle Adam Butler will record at least four combined tackles, matching a season high. Butler currently has a 43% run stop win rate at defensive tackle, which ranks third highest at the position. — Walder

What’s at stake: Tampa Bay and Atlanta are tied for the best record in the NFC South, though the Falcons have the head-to-head advantage. Per ESPN’s FPI, the Buccaneers are still the narrow favorite in the division with a 50% chance at the title. The Falcons are at 49%. Read more.

Injuries: Raiders | Buccaneers

Fantasy X factor: Irving. He had a huge game last week, with 28 touches, 152 rushing yards and 27.5 fantasy points (all season-highs for this rookie class). Against a Raiders defense that allows 22.7 fantasy points per game to running backs, he’s a strong start this week. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Raiders quarterback Aidan O’Connell is 11-2 ATS in his career, which is the best mark of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era with at least 10 starts. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Raiders 24
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Raiders 20
Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 26, Raiders 22
FPI prediction: TB, 57.4% (by an average of 2.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Could Deion Sanders be in the mix for the Raiders? … Rookie RB Irving explodes as Bucs rally for OT win vs. Panthers

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4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: ARI -2.5 (44.5 O/U)

Seahawks storyline to watch: Leonard Williams will look to continue his recent tear against the team it began against two weeks ago. The veteran defensive tackle recorded 2.5 sacks, three tackles for loss and a pass defensed in the Seahawks’ Week 12 win over Arizona, which he said should have earned him NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors. Williams got that after another dominant performance in Seattle’s win over the Jets, when he recorded two more sacks and three more tackles for loss, blocked a PAT and scored on a 92-yard pick-six, the longest by a defensive lineman in NFL history. Can the Cardinals block him in Sunday’s rematch? — Brady Henderson

Cardinals storyline to watch: The Cardinals’ red zone struggles have been magnified by losing their past two games. If they can improve on their 16.7% rate from Sunday and 38.5% clip over the past three games, they could avenge the loss to Seattle from two weeks ago. All week, the Cardinals have talked about execution being the main factor in their red zone struggles and how small changes could make the difference against the Seahawks. — Josh Weinfuss

Stat to know: Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray had a 15.0 QBR when pressured over the past two games after entering Week 12 with the best QBR (84.9) in the NFL when pressured.

Bold prediction: Williams will stay scorching hot with at least 1.5 more sacks. Both Cardinals guards, Evan Brown and Trystan Colon, have below average pass block win rates. — Walder

What’s at stake: According to ESPN Analytics, the winner of this game will become the favorite to win the NFC West, while the loser will have a 20% or less chance to win the division. Read more.

Injuries: Seahawks | Cardinals

Fantasy X factor: Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He scored 19-plus fantasy points in three of his past four games and saw 10-plus targets in two of them. With the Cardinals’ secondary struggling against slot receivers, he’s in an excellent position to deliver. He’s on the WR1 radar this week, so get him in your lineup for Week 14. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Cardinals have covered three straight home games, and the Seahawks have covered three straight road games. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Cardinals 28, Seahawks 26
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 20
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 27, Seahawks 24
FPI prediction: ARI, 57.4% (by an average of 2.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Seattle looking to fix special teams quick amid NFC West race … Cardinals sign RB Conner to 2-year extension

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4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: BUF -3.5 (49.5 O/U)

Bills storyline to watch: The Bills are looking to extend a seven-game winning streak when they head out west. A win would tie the second-longest streak in franchise history. To do that, Buffalo’s run defense will be tested again facing Rams running back Kyren Williams, who has 24 straight games with at least 50 scrimmage yards, the second-longest active streak in the NFL. He also is coming off a 100-yard rushing performance. The Bills’ defense gave up the second-most yards post-contact per rush (3.00) last week in the snow. — Alaina Getzenberg

Rams storyline to watch: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford‘s 77 Total QBR in his past three games is the second best in the NFL in that span, second only to Bills quarterback Josh Allen, according to ESPN Research. Stafford has eight passing touchdowns in his past three games, the second most in the NFL since Week 11. He hasn’t thrown an interception in those three games. — Sarah Barshop

Stat to know: The Rams have back-to-back home losses (Dolphins in Week 10 and Eagles in Week 12). They’re looking to avoid matching their longest home losing streak since Sean McVay became coach in 2017.

Bold prediction: Bills backup running back Ray Davis will score a touchdown. It’s mostly just a gut feeling, but I expect the Bills to get out to a bit of a lead, and the Rams’ run defense ranks 28th in EPA (3.31). — Walder

What’s at stake: The Bills’ odds to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC improve to 53% with a win and fall to 26% with a loss (independent of other results), according to ESPN Analytics. The Rams’ chances at the NFC playoffs increase to 34% with a win and fall to 16% with a loss. Read more.

Injuries: Bills | Rams

Fantasy X factor: Bills running back James Cook. Cook is positioned for another big game against a Rams defense that allows the fifth-most rushing yards per game to running backs (144.2). He scored 19-plus fantasy points in three of his past five games and should be busy as both a runner and receiver. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Rams are 3-9 ATS in the first quarter this season. Rams first-half unders are 9-3. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Bills 34, Rams 28
Moody’s pick: Bills 34, Rams 24
Walder’s pick: Bills 27, Rams 20
FPI prediction: BUF, 63.1% (by an average of 5.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: S Hyde re-signs with Bills, says he’ll retire after season … RB Williams sparks Rams’ offense against Saints

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4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: SF -4 (43.5 O/U)

Bears storyline to watch: Chicago looks to snap a six-game losing streak (tied for the Bears’ third longest in a season since 2000) in Thomas Brown’s first game as interim head coach after Matt Eberflus was fired on Nov. 29. Brown will move from the coaches booth to the sideline where he will continue to call offensive plays. Quarterback Caleb Williams has made significant strides with Brown as his playcaller, having thrown 232 consecutive passes without an interception, the longest streak by a rookie in NFL history. Williams is seeking his third straight game with multiple passing touchdowns and zero interceptions. — Courtney Cronin

49ers storyline to watch: The banged-up 49ers will be counting on rookie running back Isaac Guerendo to pick up the slack for injured backs Christian McCaffrey (knee) and Jordan Mason (ankle). Guerendo has flashed in small doses, averaging 5.9 yards on 42 attempts, the fourth-best mark of any running back with at least 40 carries. The Bears are yielding 4.9 yards per carry (29th in the NFL) and have given up 57 rushes of 10-plus yards (tied for sixth most), which means there should be some big-play opportunities for Guerendo in his first NFL start. — Nick Wagoner

Stat to know: The Bears are the first team since turnovers were first tracked in 1933 to lose six straight without committing multiple turnovers in any of those games.

Bold prediction: 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings will record 100-plus receiving yards and a touchdown. After two meager-ish weeks for Jennings (one of which was in the snow), I expect him to have another big day. ESPN’s receiver scores have him at third best among all wide receivers and tight ends. — Walder

What’s at stake: The 49ers enter with an 8% chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN Analytics. That increases to 12% with a win and drops to 2% with a loss. Read more.

Injuries: Bears | 49ers

Fantasy X factor: Guerendo. San Francisco is feeling the impact of losing McCaffrey and Mason to injured reserve. The 49ers will now turn to rookie Guerendo, who has been efficient with 0.78 fantasy points per touch. He’s stepping into a great matchup against a Bears defense allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry to running backs. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bears are 8-15 ATS in their past 23 games as road underdogs. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Bears 28, 49ers 21
Moody’s pick: 49ers 28, Bears 21
Walder’s pick: 49ers 23, Bears 20
FPI prediction: SF, 61.5% (by an average of 4.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Inside the Bears’ firing of Matt Eberflus … 49ers RBs McCaffrey, Mason both headed to IR … Bears sticking with GM Ryan Poles; will lead search for coach

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8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: KC -4 (42.5 O/U)

Chargers storyline to watch: The Chargers are 3-18 against the Chiefs since 2014, including six straight losses. Quarterback Justin Herbert is 2-7 against the Chiefs in his career. The games typically come down to how well the Chargers’ offensive line protects Herbert. In the two wins, the Chiefs pressured Herbert on 26% of his dropbacks, while in losses, he was pressured on 36% of his dropbacks. — Kris Rhim

Chiefs storyline to watch: The Chiefs had one of their better games of the season defensively against the Chargers in Week 4, when they held Herbert and the Los Angeles offense to 10 points and 220 yards. But can they repeat that kind of performance? The Chiefs have been a soft touch on defense for many of their recent opponents. They had two-touchdown leads over the Panthers two weeks ago and the Raiders last week and still had to scramble at the end for the victory. — Adam Teicher

Stat to know: The Chiefs have won 14 consecutive games by one score or less, which is the longest streak in NFL history.

Bold prediction: Chargers defensive tackle Poona Ford will record at least half a sack against quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The buzz on Ford is deserved, as his 12% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle ranks seventh at the position. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Chiefs can clinch their ninth straight AFC West title with a win. Per ESPN Analytics, their odds to earn the No. 1 seed increase to 61% with a win and drop to 33% with a loss. Read more.

Injuries: Chargers | Chiefs

Fantasy X factor: Herbert. Kansas City’s defense allows the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, so the Chargers might lean more on the passing game. He has thrived against the Chiefs in the past, averaging 22.5 fantasy points per game in his career. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their past six games. No team has ever gone on to win the Super Bowl in the same season it had a six-game ATS losing streak. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Chargers 30, Chiefs 28
Moody’s pick: Chargers 28, Chiefs 27
Walder’s pick: Chargers 21, Chiefs 17
FPI prediction: KC, 61.6% (by an average of 4.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Would a win over Chiefs seal Chargers’ contender status? … Do Chiefs finally have right guy to protect Mahomes’ blindside?

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Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: CIN -5 (49.5 O/U)

Bengals storyline to watch: A ground attack could be the best approach for the Bengals against the Cowboys. Over the past four games, Dallas has been one of the worst teams in allowed yards per carry (5.4, 31st) while being great at defending the pass (tied for second with five interceptions and tied for first with 16 sacks). Leaning on running back Chase Brown could relieve the pressure on the passing game and help Cincinnati snap a three-game losing skid. — Ben Baby

Cowboys storyline to watch: Dallas will be looking for its first three-game winning streak of the season with a victory Monday to keep its faint playoff hopes alive. The Cowboys are 7-1 at home against the Bengals, their best home record against any opponent in franchise history. They have won five straight overall against Cincinnati, including two seasons ago when quarterback Cooper Rush led a final-minute drive to beat Joe Burrow. But this time, Burrow is the NFL’s leading passer and directs the sixth-highest-scoring offense (26.6 points per game). — Todd Archer

Stat to know: Although not as impressive as quarterbacks Dak Prescott and Roger Staubach, who won nine of their first 10 starts with the Cowboys, Rush’s 7-3 record is better than Troy Aikman (0-10) and Tony Romo (6-4).

Bold prediction: Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb will record his second game 100-plus receiving yards this season. He is getting open as usual — he has a strong 75 open score in ESPN’s receiver scores — but his catch score is a whopping zero. Even with Rush throwing to him, I’d expect that second number to come back to normal going forward. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Bengals hold a 2% chance to make the playoffs, while the Cowboys hold a 1% chance. Read more.

Injuries: Bengals | Cowboys

Fantasy X factor: Brown. He is on a roll with 20-plus touches and 19-plus fantasy points in three of his past four games. Now, he faces a Cowboys defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. He is set up for another big game because of his ability as a runner and receiver. See Week 14 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bengals are 5-1 ATS on the road this season. The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS at home. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Bengals 30, Cowboys 24
Moody’s pick: Bengals 35, Cowboys 26
Walder’s pick: Bengals 31, Cowboys 23
FPI prediction: CIN, 66.1% (by an average of 6.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Burrow reveals he bought $2.9 million Batmobile … Cowboys’ defense revitalized since Parsons’s return … Zac Taylor, Lou Anarumo shoulder blame amid Bengals’ skid