What the stats tell us about Navarrete vs. Valdez 2

Emanuel Navarrete puts his WBO junior lightweight world title on the line in a rematch against Oscar Valdez on Saturday at Footprint Center in Phoenix (ESPN/ESPN+, 10:30 p.m. ET, with prelims on ESPN+ at 5:30 p.m. ET).

Navarrete (38-2-1, 31 KO), of Mexico City, defeated Valdez by unanimous decision in their first fight in August 2023. Navarrete threw 1,038 punches in that fight, landing 216, but the last three rounds were the champion’s most impressive. Navarrete landed 32 punches in Round 10, 23 in Round 11 and 34 — all power punches — in Round 12. He expects another tough fight on Saturday.

“I’m working hard because I know I must push Valdez to his limits,” Navarrete said during a training session on Nov. 27. “The second half of the fight will be less about technique and more about physical training and who is the best prepared to withstand the punches.”

Valdez (32-2, 24 KO), from Nogales, Mexico, rebounded from that defeat with a seventh-round TKO win over Liam Wilson back in March. Valdez landed 44.5% of his total punches and an incredible 55.8% of his power punches against Wilson. The fight was close during the first four rounds, but the next three were all Valdez’s. He landed 69 power punches to 30 for Wilson before referee Mark Nelson stopped the bout.

“I know what to expect from Navarrete,” Valdez said. “I know what to train for. I’ve trained hard and smart for this fight. In the first fight, I made several mistakes. My biggest mistake was trying to knock out my opponent. I always want to give the fans what they pay for, but I focused on the knockout instead of sticking to my game plan. I’m working smarter, fighting smarter, and bringing in sparring partners that better imitate his style.”

This is an important fight for both fighters. Navarrete’s last victory was against Valdez 16 months ago. Since then, he has had a majority draw against Robson Conceicao in November 2023 and a loss to Denys Berinchyk last May. Valdez, on the other hand, is looking to keep momentum and avenge the loss to Navarrete to become a two-time world champion. Valdez’s only other loss was against Shakur Stevenson in 2022.

Let’s take a look at the title fight by the numbers. Information from ESPN Research and CompuBox were used in this report.

-275: Odds for Navarrete to defeat Valdez in the rematch (per ESPN BET).

483: Days since Navarrete’s last victory — a unanimous decision over Valdez in Aug. 12, 2023 — before he faces Valdez in a rematch on Saturday.

19.8: Punches landed per round by Navarrete of 67.2 thrown in his last 15 fights (29.5%). Navarrete landed 13.8 of 58.5 in his last five fights (23.6%).

15.9: Power punches landed by Navarrete of 43.8 thrown in his last 15 fights (36.3%). Opponents landed nine power punches on Navarrete of 31 thrown (28.9%).

Navarrete and Valdez are known for their body punching, but it is more about quality than quantity for both fighters. Only 22.2% of Navarrete’s total punches are to the body, compared to 20.7% for Valdez. Both of their totals are lower than the junior lightweight division average of 29.5%.

In his last 15 fights, Valdez has been very efficient. While landing only 15.3 punches per round out of 49.8 thrown, his average of 30.7% is higher than the junior lightweight division average of 28.1%.

4.6: Jabs landed by Valdez out of 22.2 thrown, a 20.7% average. In contrast, Valdez lands 10.7 power punches per round out of 27.7, a 38.6% average.

26.7%: Percentage of power punches landed on Valdez by his opponents, 10th lowest among champions and title contenders.

34: Power punches landed by Navarrete in Round 12 in his first fight against Valdez.

Navarrete’s volume of punches was key in his first fight with Valdez. Navarrete landed 18 of 87 punches thrown per round to 12 of 36 for Valdez. Navarrete’s 216 landed punches were the most by a Valdez opponent. In rounds 10 through 12, Navarrete outlanded Valdez 89-46.

3: Number of title defenses Navarrete is attempting to reach with a victory over Valdez in the rematch.

12: Navarrete’s victories in title fights — seven by stoppage — along one defeat and one draw. All those fights have been since 2018.

1: Navarrete’s loses. In May, Navarrete moved up in weight and lost a split decision to Denys Berinchyk challenging for the WBO lightweight world title.

128: Total punches landed by Navarrete in his loss to Berinchyk out of 612 thrown (21%). Navarrete only landed 98 of 423 power punches (16%) in that fight.

Valdez, No. 5 in ESPN’s junior lightweight rankings, hopes to become a two-time junior lightweight champion. In his last bout in March, he scored a seventh-round TKO victory over Liam Wilson to set up the rematch against Navarrete.

11: Valdez’s victories in title fights — six by stoppage — along with two defeats.

2: Divisions in which Valdez has won titles — featherweight and junior lightweight.

9: Valdez’s opponents land 26.7% of their power punches against Valdez, the ninth lowest percentage among active fighters.