NHL Awards Watch: Kaprizov, Makar running away from the pack?

The NHL rookie of the year battle between Philadelphia Flyers sensation Matvei Michkov and San Jose Sharks first overall pick Macklin Celebrini could be one for the ages, according to awards voters.

But that’s not the only intensely close race for postseason hardware just two months in the season, as previously established favorites come back to the pack and hot new contenders rise up the rankings — although one MVP candidate continues to lap the field.

We’ve polled a wide selection of Professional Hockey Writers Association voters anonymously to get a sense of where the wind is blowing for the current leaders. We’ve made sure it’s a cross-section from the entire league, trying to gain as many perspectives as possible.

Bear in mind that the PHWA votes for the Hart, Norris, Calder, Selke and Lady Byng finalists; broadcasters vote for the Jack Adams; and general managers handle the Vezina.

All stats are from Hockey-Reference.com, Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.

Jump ahead:
Ross | Richard | Hart
Norris | Selke | Vezina
Calder | Byng | Adams

Art Ross Trophy (points leader)

Click here for the updated point-scoring standings.

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Maurice ‘Rocket’ Richard Trophy

Click here for the updated goal-scoring standings.

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Hart Trophy (MVP)

Leader: Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota Wild
Finalists: Jack Eichel, Vegas Golden Knights; Martin Necas, Carolina Hurricanes

Kirill The Thrill still rules the Hart Trophy race, and has increased the margin over his November lead. Kaprizov earned 78% of the votes last month. He now has 88% of the first-place ballots.

He has 42 points, with 17 goals and 25 assists. He leads the Wild’s next highest scorer (Matt Boldy) by 15 points after 26 games. Kaprizov has been the league’s best even-strength scorer, as just 10 of his points have come on the power play. Minnesota averages 3.7 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with Kaprizov on the ice, and gives up just 1.7 goals against.

“He’s got hella game-winning goals, tiebreaking points and third-period points,” a voter noted.

Kaprizov was seventh for the Hart in 2021-22 when he had 108 points and 47 goals. The Wild are one of the league’s biggest surprises, with a .741 points percentage in 27 games. Kaprizov has been a driving force behind that ascent to the top of the Western Conference.

“He’s the biggest reason why no one can talk about the Parise and Suter buyouts crippling Minnesota’s season,” one voter said.

Another voter declared the Hart is “Kaprizov’s to lose.”

Of course, he could lose it.

“The Wild aren’t at the top of the league without him or their goalie, but there are so many options right now,” a voter said. “Kaprizov has been unreal to start the season, but Martin Necas is a close second.”

Necas is one of only two other players to receive first-place votes for the Hart. Entering Monday night, the Carolina winger had tied Kaprizov for the league lead in points (42 in 27 games). His 14 goals means he’s halfway to his career high (28 goals) well before the halfway mark of the season.

Outside of maybe Dylan Strome of the Washington Capitals, no one among the NHL’s top 15 scorers is having the breakout season that Necas is having. Few are having the impact that Necas is having on his own team, as he led star center Sebastian Aho by 12 points and posted five game-winning goals this season.

The other player to receive first-place support was Eichel of the Golden Knights. Like the other two candidates, Eichel has a sizable gap between the next highest scorer on the Knights, leading linemate Ivan Barbashev by 11 points. Vegas is averaging 4.36 goals per 60 minutes with Eichel on the ice, and 2.47 goals against. He has been the best player on a Vegas team that sits atop the Pacific Division.

Other names mentioned down the ballot for the Hart Trophy were Sam Reinhart of the Florida Panthers; Connor McDavid of the Edmonton Oilers; Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche, who was in the top three last month; and Winnipeg Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck. Nikita Kucherov, who made the top three last month, has curiously fallen off the radar.

McDavid is obviously one to watch. He has won NHL MVP three times and been a finalist for it six times in 10 seasons. An early-season injury cost him a couple of games, but McDavid had 37 points in 24 games for a 1.54 points-per-game average, which was fourth in the league. With 16 points in his last eight games, Connor is doing Connor things again.

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Norris Trophy (top defenseman)

Leader: Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
Finalists: Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks; Zach Werenski, Columbus Blue Jackets

Makar earned 75% of the first-place votes for the Norris, as the Colorado defenseman continues a dominant offensive season. His 35 points led all defenseman after 29 games, including an NHL-best nine goals. He has 15 power-play points and contributed a shorthanded goal as well.

“Yeah, Cale Makar. Definitely,” a voter concluded of the Norris race.

Makar got off to an historic start this season, becoming the second defenseman in NHL history to post a season-opening points streak of at least 11 games, and the second defenseman to lead the league in points for all skaters after one month. The only other guy to do that was Bobby Orr, who was a Hockey Hall of Famer before he became a dependable crossword puzzle clue.

Makar remains on pace to become the seventh defenseman in NHL history to break 100 points, and the first since Erik Karlsson tallied 101 points with the 2022-23 San Jose Sharks. But what’s impressed some voters more than his point total is the role he’s playing for the Avalanche this season.

“Makar is not only lapping the field offensively, he’s taking on primary matchup role in Colorado, which is something that players like Quinn Hughes and Victor Hedman are not for their teams,” a voter explained. “When you combine Makar’s offensive impact and the fact he’s doing it while in a matchup role, he has clearly been the league’s best defenseman thus far.”

Makar won the Norris in 2021-22 and finished third in the next two seasons. That was a bit of a surprise last season, as Makar and Hughes were in a two-player race for the award seemingly all season before Roman Josi of the Nashville Predators swooped in to take second.

It’s setting up to be another Makar vs. Hughes showdown this season, as the reigning Norris winner garnered the second-most support behind the Avalanche defenseman.

“It’s Makar, but Quinn Hughes is right behind him,” a voter opined.

Hughes has 32 points in 26 games, and his 1.23 points-per-game average ranked him slightly ahead of Makar (1.21). He’s the leading scorer on the Canucks this season, eight points ahead of Elias Pettersson through Sunday’s games. Vancouver fans have sung his praises as their MVP all season.

“The points for Makar are nice, but Hughes dominates every inch of the ice when he’s there, and he’s on the ice a lot,” one voter noted.

“It’s Hughes by a hair over Makar, and something tells me this is going to the wire,” another said.

The only other defenseman to receive first-place votes was Werenski, who is having a stellar season for the Blue Jackets. The 27-year-old defenseman had 28 points in his first 27 games, including eight goals. He’s leading all defensemen in average ice time (26:10) and plays in all situations for Columbus.

Werenski making the Team USA 4 Nations Face-Off roster no doubt bolstered interest in the kind of season he’s having.

“Shoutout to Zach Werenski. He’s been unreal in all three zones this year,” said one Hughes voter.

Victor Hedman of the Tampa Bay Lightning and Josh Morrissey of the Winnipeg Jets, who was in the top three last month, were other defensemen who garnered support down the ballot. Hedman, who has one Norris win, is seeking his first nomination after a streak of six season as a finalist ended in 2021-22.

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Calder Trophy (top rookie)

Leader: Matvei Michkov, Philadelphia Flyers
Finalists: Macklin Celebrini, San Jose Sharks; Dustin Wolf, Calgary Flames

Logan Stankoven, we hardly knew ye.

The Dallas Stars forward led all rookies in scoring during last month’s NHL Awards Watch voting, and thus led all players with first-place ballots as well. He’s been in a huge funk since Nov. 15, with just two assists in 10 games. Goodbye rookie scoring lead. Goodbye spot as a Calder finalist in the Awards Watch, as Stankoven didn’t receive a first-place vote, even through he was mentioned down the ballot.

“Neither Michkov nor Macklin Celebrini drive play the way that Stankoven does,” a voter said.

That said, points are points and Michkov has jumped into the lead with 56% of the first-place ballots. The Flyers’ rookie sensation led all first-year scorers with 25 points in 26 games, including 11 goals to top all rookies. That includes three overtime game-winners, tied with Leon Draisaitl for the most in the NHL through Sunday.

Michkov was one of the finalists for the Calder last month in the Awards Watch.

“That kid’s pretty damn good,” one Michkov voter noted succinctly.

He’s been every bit as special as advertised: Hitting the highlight reel with frequency, and bringing a big personality to the NHL. Witness last weekend’s chicanery, as the 20-year-old Flyers winger was ejected from their loss to Utah and stopped to sign a fan’s water bottle on the way to the dressing room.

He’s managed to do all of this under coach John Tortorella, who is not known for his offense but certainly known for his tough handling of young scorers.

“Torts makes me a little nervous on this one, but this is where I’m at right now,” a Michkov voter said. “Almost a point per game for him.”

The “right now” is doing a lot of work here because it’s clear that a lot of Michkov voters are checking how fast Celebrini is approaching, like a Jurassic Park jeep speeding away from a T-Rex. They felt that way last month and the sentiment has only grown now that Celebrini has played more games.

“Celebrini is in the rear-view mirror and objects are closer than they appear,” one voter said.

“I think Celebrini will catch Michkov, but not yet,” another voter predicted.

Celebrini missed time earlier this season due to injury, but has more than made up for it. The first overall pick last summer has 15 points in 18 games, including eight goals, which was second to Michkov. He’s skating 19:42 per game and has three game-winning goals.

“Macklin Celebrini wasted absolutely no time making up the ground he lost in the Calder race with that injury. He has been lighting up the scoresheet since coming back and he is living up to every bit of the hype he had going into the draft,” a voter explained. “Michkov has a bit of a lead on him in points, but if he keeps playing like this, he’ll close that gap.”

“The Sharks are a completely different team since he came back from injury,” another voter said. “He will have his peaks and valleys, as will Michkov, but Celebrini’s complete 200-foot game gives him the edge.”

Montreal Canadiens rookie defenseman Lane Hutson was the other finalist last month, and received down-ballot mentions from our voters. He has zero goals and 18 assists in 27 games, and is easily the best rookie defenseman in a lackluster crop of them. But there was more interested from our voters in another Canadian rookie this month: Dustin Wolf of the Calgary Flames.

Wolf is 8-5-1 with a .909 save percentage and a goals-against average of 2.84. Stathletes has playing him just slightly below expected in goals saved above expected (minus-0.44) but he’s been really strong for a surprising Flames team. Wolf is easily the best rookie goalie of the lot this season. Outside of Michkov and Celebrini, he’s the only other rookie to have received a first-place vote.

“If we’re being honest about who the best rookie is — not the flashiest — it’s Wolf by a mile,” a voter declared. “He’s been outstanding and this shouldn’t be particularly close.”

“Dustin Wolf’s numbers were very tempting and he’s done a great job holding Calgary in the playoff picture, but Celebrini has a much larger sample size and had a monster November,” another voter argued.

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Vezina Trophy (top goaltender)

Note: The NHL’s general managers vote for this award

Leader: Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets
Finalists: Lukas Dostal, Anaheim Ducks; Filip Gustavsson, Minnesota Wild

Can the Gus Bus catch a Jet?

That’s the big question when it comes to the Vezina voting. Hellebuyck is the clear favorite for the award, but like Winnipeg in the standings, his dominance has faltered a bit — perhaps not a coincidence, mind you. Especially when Gustavsson, who has the second most support for the Vezina, is the netminder for the team that’s blown past the Jets in the West.

“It is a two-horse race between Gustavsson and Hellebuyck,” one voter concluded.

Hellebuyck has started the season 17-5-0 with a .925 save percentage and a 2.14 goals-against average, along with three shutouts. Despite the strong team in front of him, he is fifth in goals saved above expected per Stathletes (8.5). He won the Vezina last season for the second time in his career. He’s been a finalist four times.

“This really isn’t a conversation unless Hellebuyck gets hurt or starts playing dodgeball,” a voter noted.

“His ridiculous head start helps,” another voter quipped.

But as of Monday, Hellebuyck does not have a stronger stats case than Gustavsson does. The Wild goalie is 13-4-3 with a .931 save percentage and a 1.99 goals-against average. Stathletes has him second in goals saved above expected (9.5).

“All aboard the Gus Bus!” one voter said enthusiastically.

The only other goalie to receive a first-place vote was Dostal, who continues to play well for a Ducks team that doesn’t seem all that interested in the whole “defense” thing. (Not sure if Jacob Trouba is the guy to fix that, but Dostal was no doubt happy to see the reinforcement arrive.)

The Anaheim goalie is 6-7-2 with a .921 save percentage and a 2.73 goals-against average, with a shutout. Stathletes has him fourth in the NHL, with 9.1 goals saved above average.

“It isn’t Lukas Dostal’s fault that his team is poor, his performance has been nothing short of outstanding this season,” a voter explained.

New York Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin was in the top three last month but garnered little support among these voters. The only other goalie that did was Logan Thompson of the Washington Capitals, who is sixth in goals saved above expected via Stathletes and is 11-1-2 with a .913 save percentage for the Caps.

“It’s worth pointing out that Canada left a guy in the Vezina conversation off their 4 Nations roster,” one voter highlighted.

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Selke Trophy (best defensive forward)

Leader: Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers
Finalists: Anthony Cirelli, Tampa Bay Lightning; Sam Reinhart, Florida Panthers

Memo to Sasha Barkov: Someone is coming to take your Selke Trophy and the call is coming from inside the house …

Barkov is still the default choice for most voters, earned 50% of the first-place votes in a crowded field — although not nearly as crowded as last month’s Awards Watch, no less than 11 different players receive at least one first-place vote. Barkov won the Selke for the second time last season, and many expected it would be the start of a Patrice Bergeron-esque run for the Panthers captain.

Despite missing eight games due to injury, Barkov has been outstanding. He wins 64% of his faceoffs. The Panthers have a 1.9 expected-goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with him on the ice. As is Selke Trophy tradition, Barkov has also been offensively dominant, to the tune of 28 points in 20 games. Florida earns a strong 63.4% of the high-danger shot attempts when Barkov is on the ice.

When Reinhart is on the ice, they earn 61.7% of them. When he’s on the ice, the Panthers give up only 1.9 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, which is slightly better than Barkov (2.0) despite the two playing the majority of their time together.

Reinhart’s defensive analytics stack up against anyone in the NHL. They might get obscured by his remarkable offensive output (19 goals and 19 assists in 28 games) and the formidable shadow cast by Barkov’s reputation, but with 25% of the first-place votes for the Selke, it’s clear that Reinhart’s candidacy is catching on.

“Tight race goes to Reinhart right now,” one voter concluded.

“He’s burning the opposition at both ends of the ice,” another said.

At least one voter also noted that a vote for Reinhart is a vote for a winger, as Jere Lehtinen was the last non-center to win the award, back in 2003.

Cirelli had the next-highest number of first-place votes among Selke candidates. He’s averaging 2.0 expected goals against per 60 minutes this season, and the Lightning get an incredible 66% of the high-danger shot attempts when he’s on the ice.

After a couple of seasons where it looked like he might break into the top three in for the Selke, Cirelli fell off the radar the last two seasons. But he’s back in the conversation now, and that conversation probably got louder when Cirelli was named to Team Canada for the 4 Nations Face-Off as its defensive stopper.

“Anthony Cirelli is making a case for himself, with 11 goals and 13 assists,” a voter noted.

Two other players received first-place votes: Los Angeles Kings center Anze Kopitar, who’s won the Selke twice; and Carolina Hurricanes center Jordan Staal, who was the runner-up last season and continues to search for the first Selke win of his 19-year NHL career.

Other names mentioned down the ballot for the Selke were Nico Hischier of the New Jersey Devils, who was in the top three last month, and Mitch Marner of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

“Hischier and Marner are within striking distance because they play significant roles on the penalty kill,” one voter said.

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Lady Byng Trophy (gentlemanly play)

This is the part where I mention that the Lady Byng Trophy for gentlemanly play should be voted on by the league’s on-ice officials or by the NHL Players’ Association instead of the PHWA.

Traditionally, this award goes to a player with a top-20 point total and the lowest penalty minutes among those players. It’s early, but Toronto’s Mitch Marner had just four penalty minutes in 27 games, amassing 38 points. He was fourth for the Byng in 2021-22.

And hey, maybe he’s garnered sympathy since being the target of William Nylander‘s tough love on the NHL’s Amazon Prime show.

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Jack Adams Award (best coach)

Note: The NHL Broadcasters’ Association votes on this award.

Leader: Spencer Carbery, Washington Capitals
Finalists: Scott Arniel, Winnipeg Jets, John Hynes, Minnesota Wild

One of the biggest stories of the first quarter of the season was Alex Ovechkin, whose 15 goals in 18 games was the hottest start of career and made catching Wayne Gretzky’s goals record this season a plausible possibility.

When Ovechkin went down with a broken leg after 18 games, the story shifted to the rest of the Capitals and their coach Spencer Carbery, whose team has gone 6-2-1 without their star captain while climbing to the top of the league standings.

Carbery earned 75% of the first-place votes from the ballots we surveyed. He was a strong second last month.

“Sure, the Capitals are a playoff team from last year that made a few additions, but it’s pretty clear the system Carbery has in place is helping the Capitals out a ton,” a voter explaind. “They’ve continued to win games even with Alex Ovechkin out of the lineup and a lot of that is due to what Carbery has in place and the work he’s done in developing the young players on that roster.”

As another voter said: “Spencer Carbery, and it’s not close. He’s gotten these Capitals to buy in, and they’re still finding ways to win without Alex Ovechkin. Just wow.”

Arniel, who led for the Jack Adams in the last Awards Watch, and Hynes were the only other two coaches to receive first-place votes.

The Jets have cooled off some after their historic start — the first team in NHL history to win at least 14 of its first 15 games of a season — but Arniel turned a good team from last season into a steamroller early on this season.

Voters love a redemption story, too: Please recall Arniel had two unsuccessful years with Columbus from 2010-11, paid his dues and got his second chance over a decade later. But keep in mind the voters were already impressed with the Jets: Rick Bowness was a Jack Adams finalist last season.

Hynes’ Wild team moved past Winnipeg in the standings, earning him some support for the Jack Adams — although in some cases, begrudgingly.

“I’ve never been a huge fan of John Hynes, but his system and overall team play make him the easy choice for the award,” a voter explained.

Another voter offered no caveat: “Hynes has a roster in salary cap hell at the top of the league — surely helped by Kaprizov, but Minnesota has been excellent.”

Among the other coaches getting mentioned down the ballots were Rod Brind’Amour of the Carolina Hurricanes, who was in the top three last month, as well as two coaches who share a connection from last offseason: Sheldon Keefe of the New Jersey Devils … who was replaced by Craig Berube with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

“Berube has completely changed the identity of the Leafs, making them the best defensive team in the league,” a voter said.

Meanwhile in New Jersey: “People may hate this, but Sheldon Keefe is doing well in NJ. Seems like his players are buying in.”

Remember, when it comes to the Jack Adams, it’s pays to be excellent but not the best: since 1973-74, only 10 winners came from teams that captured the Presidents’ Trophy.