UCL talking points: Who will be eliminated – Man City or PSG?

Matchday six of the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League is in the books as we enter the business end of the league phase and the 36-team table starts to take shape.

Manchester City‘s loss to Juventus leaves Pep Guardiola’s chances of staying in the competition on a knife-edge, while Arsenal and Liverpool continued to stake their claims as the continent’s best this season.

Elsewhere, there were some wonder-strikes from the like of Michael Olise, Julián Álvarez and Jhon Durán — but which was the best?

ESPN writers Gab Marcotti, Sam Marsden and Julien Laurens reflect on some of the burning questions after six rounds.

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1. It’s do or die for Man City and PSG now. Which team do you favor more to go into the knockouts (through playoffs or top eight finish)?

Marcotti: I don’t think PSG can mathematically get into the top eight. And it’s going to be tricky for City as well. Obviously, PSG vs. Man City in the next round is going to be HUGE. I think the stakes are a little higher for PSG though, because their final game is away to VfB Stuttgart, who are not the easiest team to play on the road. So it’s more of a “can’t lose” game for them than it is for City. Crazy as it sounds, City could lose and still control their destiny as they play Club Brugge in the final game at the Etihad. That said, PSG are in far better form right now.

Laurens: I think both of them will finish in the top 24 and qualify for the playoffs. As I see it, they will draw with each other and then win their final game to finish with 12 points for the English champions and 11 for the French ones. That was not the plan at the start of the competition — as the objective was obviously the top eight — but both City and PSG will still be in it. This league phase has been a rollercoaster for them with a lot of drama, controversy, ups and downs. It has added a lot of entertainment to the campaign (except for Paris and for City fans) and a lot of pressure on coaches Guardiola and Luis Enrique. Which is also why we like this competition so much.

Marsden: Neither will finish in the top eight, but I also don’t think either team will go out. PSG have the advantage of playing City at home and, domestically at least, are in much better form than Guardiola’s team. If PSG really had to win at Stuttgart in their final game, I think they would pull it off, too. That said, with a point less than City and two tough games to come, they are under the biggest threat of a humiliating knockout stage exit. City should be fine because they have Brugge at home in their final game — 11 points will be just enough to finish in the top 24.

2. Liverpool continued their perfect run. Are they primed to lift the title this year? Why or why not?

Marcotti: Obviously it’s early in the season and there’s always stuff that can go wrong. I think Liverpool boss Arne Slot has been exceptional this year in so many ways. The expiring contracts haven’t been a distraction thus far and I don’t think they will become one. My biggest concern is how the squad handles being in a Premier League title race and going deep in the Champions League as well. It’s not straight-forward. He has the squad to rotate and you’re seeing more of it recently, but it’s not easy to do effectively. That’s one of thing which, I think, he’ll need to do if they are to win the title. The other thing is to keep Ryan Gravenberch fit and productive all season long (or, alternatively, find somebody else who can do what he does). Other than Mohamed Salah, he’s probably Liverpool’s most important player simply because there is no obvious replacement.

Laurens: Right now, they have been the best team in the competition, finding solutions against all their opponents and finding ways of winning without always playing great. Their masterclass was against the current holders, Real Madrid, when they outplayed them at Anfield on matchday five. But there is a long way to go still and in the knockout stages anything is possible. All the big teams will get better, Liverpool included, which makes this Champions League campaign really unpredictable.

Marsden: Liverpool are one of several sides who could win the competition, but their perfect league phase so far will not mean anything come March. Everything has gone so smoothly so far for Slot, but he will have to manage setbacks at some point if his side are to compete on various fronts. How would he cope without Salah, who has been directly involved in 28 of Liverpool’s 50 goals this season? Teams will also begin to find ways to play against his side, as Girona, despite losing, did this week. Slot admitted Liverpool were “outplayed” at times and said he was “far from pleased with the performance.” The challenge now is to keep the levels as high as they have been so far.

3. We had some nice goals this round. What was your favorite from this match day?

Laurens: I won’t lie, I love a curler. Julián Álvarez‘s goal in Atlético Madrid‘s win over Slovan Bratislava was beautiful, as was the one scored by Paris born-and-bred Anis Hadj-Moussa for Feyenoord against Sparta Prague. But I can really only pick Olise’s goal as the goal of the week. His slalom with the ball is sick. He beats six Donetsk players by making it look so easy. He makes the Shakhtar defenders look like cones on the pitch; it’s all on his left foot with pace and swagger and finishes it all off by sitting down the keeper with the smallest of dummies. It’s a wonder goal from a very special player.

Marsden: I want to say Olise but the defending from Shakhtar Donetsk, already 4-1 down and in the 93rd minute, is holding me back. I’ll go for Durán — it flew in — but with an honorable mention for USMNT duo Timothy Weah and Weston McKennie, who combined for Juventus’ second in their 2-0 win over Manchester City. Weah’s cross was acrobatically finished by McKennie.

Marcotti: Jules was right to touch on Hadj Moussa’s curler. It was just as delightful as Álvarez’s strike, except with a little dummy to leave the defender on the spot. But yeah, otherwise it’s Olise, regardless of the fact it was in garbage time.

4. There are some surprise teams at the top of the table. Who is your “dark horse” to go furthest in the competition?

Marcotti: I guess it depends on your definition of “dark horse”. Other than Brest and Lille I’m not sure anybody in the top 14 is a “dark horse”. I guess I’d go with Lille out of those two, just because they’re a more complete squad than Brest. If we use “clubs who were not founding members of the Super League” as a definition for dark horse, then maybe Bayer Leverkusen (if they get their injured guys back) or Atalanta, just because anything can happen (and often does) when they take the pitch.

Laurens: As much as I would love it to continue, the Brest fairytale will stop in the next round. They’ve done so well to lock-in a top 24 spot with two games to spare, but they won’t finish in the top eight and will struggle to get past the playoffs. Lille could go a step further but they are a young team, as we saw in Wednesday night when they gave away a two-goal lead against Sturm Graz at home. For me, the biggest dark horse is Atalanta. They are top of Serie A, should have got a point against Real Madrid on Tuesday and Gian Piero Gasperini is doing a great job. They will finish in the top eight and nobody will want to face them.

Marsden: Taking Gab’s second definition, because I don’t think Lille or Brest will make it past the last 16, I like the look of Leverkusen and Aston Villa. Both teams look well set up for knockout games and capable of upsetting the more fancied sides. The defeat to Liverpool aside, Leverkusen have been solid and this week’s win over Internazionale will give them confidence heading into the latter stages. Unai Emery is known for his Europa League pedigree, but he also took Villarreal far in this competition and can do the same with 1982 winners Villa this season.