Predicting winners, contenders, spoilers in women's basketball's conference races
With the calendar about to turn to the new year, the true equalizer awaits in women’s college basketball: conference play.
There’s a vast range in how difficult women’s basketball programs scheduled their nonconference slates. Some teams, such as South Carolina, lined up a litany of ranked opponents, including NC State, UCLA (which beat the Gamecocks), Duke and TCU. On the other side of the scheduling spectrum is LSU, which is still undefeated but faced only three Power 4 schools, including just one Top 25 team.
League schedules can also vary widely, but they are more level than nonconference action. LSU, for example, is now thrown into the SEC gauntlet of facing ranked teams Tennessee (home and away), Oklahoma (home) and Ole Miss (home), and South Carolina, Texas and Kentucky (all on the road).
Like those of the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten, the SEC schedule also features new wrinkles stemming from realignment. Texas and Oklahoma join the league as programs looking to challenge perennial power South Carolina. Coaching changes make Kentucky and Tennessee intriguing teams to monitor, too.
Nearly two months into the season and with league play on the horizon, ESPN breaks down everything you need to know and answers the biggest questions about the major conferences.
ACC
Front-runner: Notre Dame. The ACC looks like the Fighting Irish’s to lose. They boast national player of the year front-runner Hannah Hidalgo, perhaps the best backcourt in the country (Hidalgo, Olivia Miles and Sonia Citron) and arguably the most impressive collection of wins over top-5 squads (UConn, Texas and USC). Their chances of dominating the ACC only improve if Maddy Westbeld returns from a foot injury.
Top challengers: Duke, primarily. Behind the contributions of Ashlon Jackson, Reigan Richardson and freshman Toby Fournier, the Blue Devils appear to have a stronger offense to pair with their typically staunch defense. Wins over Kansas State and Oklahoma during Feast Week were confidence-boosters that this Kara Lawson team could be special.
Others in the mix: NC State and Louisville were picked to finish second and fourth, respectively, in the preseason poll but have faltered in nonconference action, with the Cardinals dropping out of the Top 25. North Carolina also has been a bit up-and-down, while Florida State, home to the nation’s leading scorer in Ta’Niya Latson, hasn’t yet made a splash as a team. But conference play can give teams an opportunity to establish greater consistency.
Biggest X factor in league race? Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were picked to finish 10th in the league. Fast-forward to late December and they’re undefeated with a program-record 13-0 start, ranked 13th in the country and pretty comfortably beat UNC in their ACC opener. Expectations are building that these new-look Yellow Jackets, known for their high-powered offense and 3-point shooting, could make some noise in the ACC.
Three games that could decide it:
Feb. 17: Duke at Notre Dame (6 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Feb. 23: Notre Dame at NC State (noon ET, ESPN)
Feb. 27: UNC at Duke (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
— Alexa Philippou
Big 12
Front-runner: Kansas State. The Wildcats were the preseason pick by the coaches to win the league, in part because they have one of the most difficult players to stop in center Ayoka Lee. She is averaging 17.3 points and shooting 65.0% from the field. K-State ranks second in the Big 12 in points scored and first in points allowed. The Wildcats’ only loss was to Duke.
Top challengers: TCU, West Virginia, Baylor. The Horned Frogs have the Big 12’s best nonconference win, against Notre Dame. Their lone loss was to South Carolina. The Mountaineers have one of the Big 12’s best backcourts. However, they opened Big 12 play falling at Colorado, losing an 11-point lead after three quarters by being outscored 25-9 in the fourth. Altitude effect, perhaps, but also a key win for the Buffs as they return to the Big 12. Baylor lost to unranked Oregon and Indiana, but started league play with a 20-point win at Kansas.
Biggest X factor in league race? We will see how well Iowa State — which was a preseason top-10 team and is now out of the rankings — bounces back from what’s been a disappointing nonconference slate and Big 12 opener. Last season, the Cyclones made the Big 12 tournament final and gave Stanford an overtime scare in the NCAA tournament. A lot was expected of them this season, but they were blown out by South Carolina and UConn and started Big 12 play with a loss at Oklahoma State. Another X factor is how different the conference schedule is from just two years ago, with eight new members since the start of the 2022-23 season and the departure of Texas and Oklahoma. There’s no historical frame of reference for several of these new matchups.
Three games that could decide it:
Feb. 5: TCU at Kansas State (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Feb. 11: Baylor at West Virginia (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Feb. 23: West Virginia at TCU, noon ET, ESPN2
— Michael Voepel
Big Ten
Front-runner: UCLA. USC and Ohio State have lived up to expectations. Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa have exceeded them. But UCLA has been the best team in the Big Ten — and perhaps in the country — for the first two months and is the clear favorite heading into league play. The Bruins are deep, they have solved their perimeter shooting woes of the past few seasons and they have a versatile lineup anchored by center Lauren Betts.
Top challengers: USC is in any game and any race because of JuJu Watkins. With Kiki Iriafen now finding her way in Los Angeles, the Trojans are a national championship contender. Ohio State’s full-court press is a high-risk, high-reward approach, but it also gives the Buckeyes a chance against anyone.
Biggest X factor in league race? Lauren Betts’ size. Betts is not only one of the best players in the country, she’s also 6-foot-7. None of the other contenders in the Big Ten has a player who rivals Betts’ combination of size and skill. The rest of the league’s best teams are driven by great guard play. Do any of them have a way to slow down Betts’ inside dominance? The answer will determine if UCLA will be seriously challenged for the conference crown.
Three games that could decide it:
Jan. 23: Maryland at Ohio State (6 p.m. ET, BTN)
Feb. 2: USC at Iowa (1:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
March 1: USC at UCLA (9 p.m. ET, Fox)
— Charlie Creme
SEC
Front-runner: South Carolina. No surprise here. The defending NCAA champions have won or shared the SEC regular-season title eight of the past 11 seasons. Despite losing standout center Kamilla Cardoso from last year’s team, the Gamecocks are still loaded with talent inside and outside. Their only loss was Nov. 24 at UCLA, but they’ve rebounded well from that. South Carolina doesn’t have one main scoring threat; seven players average between 7.2 and 11.3 points per game. It makes them very hard to guard.
Biggest X factor in league race? Texas and South Carolina have to face each other twice. LSU plays both of them just once (although those games are on the road). There’s a chance the schedule may play into the Tigers’ hands, either for them winning the regular-season title — which LSU hasn’t done since 2008 — or finishing second. There’s also the fact that the SEC almost always has unpredictable upsets because even the lower-tier squads can be dangerous if they’re hitting shots.
Three games that could decide it:
Jan. 12: Texas at South Carolina, 1 p.m. ET, ESPN
Feb. 9: South Carolina at Texas, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN
Feb. 16: LSU at Texas, 3 p.m. ET, ABC
— Voepel
What other conferences could have the biggest impact on the bracket in March?
The Big East and Atlantic 10 project to have multiple bids and are worth keeping an eye on because they will impact at-large berths elsewhere.
In the Big East, UConn and Creighton are locks. St. John’s and perhaps a hot streak from Villanova are the wild cards to watch.
In the Atlantic 10, Richmond beat Oklahoma State and Columbia, but George Mason and Saint Joseph’s should remain in contention for an NCAA at-large bid.
The Summit, Ivy and Mountain West could also become multiple-bid leagues. South Dakota State is a probable at-large team if the Jackrabbits don’t win the Summit League tournament. A less likely but similarly possible scenario could play out with UNLV in the MWC.
The Ivy got two bids a year ago and could do the same this season if Harvard continues to rack up wins but doesn’t win the league’s four-team tournament.
— Creme
