Ranking the top contenders at the 2025 Australian Open
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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
It has been about four months since Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka polished off their US Open titles in comfortable fashion. Sinner dropped only two of 23 sets, while Sabalenka dropped only one of 15, and both won their second Slam titles of 2024 on their way to year-end No. 1 rankings.
After a relatively turbulent fall and winter, complete with injuries and further grumbling about overloaded tour schedules, plus the fallout from a couple of prominent positive drug tests (on both the men’s and women’s sides), the first Slam of 2025 arrives. It is in no way shocking to report that the favorites are again Sinner and Sabalenka. But a lot can go awry over a fortnight. Let’s look at the main cast of characters for the 2025 Australian Open, from the favorites and vice-favorites to the underdogs and the most likely first-week stories.
The favorites
Jannik Sinner
ESPN BET odds: +130 | Tennis Abstract odds: 65.9%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Alex De Minaur (quarterfinals)
Despite the dark cloud of a no-fault drug test (and all it revealed about tennis’ strangely secretive drug-testing processes), Sinner enjoyed an incredible 2024, not only winning both hard-court Slams but also taking the year-end ATP finals, three Masters 1000 events and even leading Italy to the Davis Cup title. He went 0-3 against Carlos Alcaraz and 73-3 against the rest of the world. His serve has turned into the most dangerous in the world — he won 71.1% of his service points in 2024, the most of anyone in the ATP top 50 — and he’s got a top-five return, too.
Previous fitness concerns washed away to a degree in 2024, and what was left was the most complete and devastating overall game in tennis. Tennis Abstract gives him a 66% chance at the title, which is an absolutely absurd number considering the size of the 128-man field.
Aryna Sabalenka
ESPN BET odds: +220 | Tennis Abstract odds: 23.6%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Zheng Qinwen (quarterfinals)
Sabalenka’s 2024 suffers only when compared to Sinner’s. The 26-year-old also won both hard-court Slams — she’s now reached the finals of four straight hard-court Slams, with three titles — and she reached the finals of four 1000-level events, winning two. She missed part of the summer (including Wimbledon) with a shoulder injury and suffered a couple of upset losses upon her return, but she found her form in time for the US Open and at one point won 22 of 23 matches.
Sabalenka is aiming for a third straight Aussie title, and her draw didn’t do her many favors. She could play rising teenager Mirra Andreeva (who handed Sabalenka her only Slam loss of the season at the French Open) in the fourth round, last year’s other Aussie finalist, Zheng, in the quarters and Coco Gauff, the last woman to beat her in a hard-court Slam, in the semis. That’s rough, but she’ll be the favorite in every match.
Carlos Alcaraz
ESPN BET odds: +330 | Tennis Abstract odds: 6.7%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Novak Djokovic or No. 10 Grigor Dimitrov (quarterfinals)
Can you have a disappointing two-Slam season? Alcaraz, 21, went unbeaten against Sinner and won his first French Open and second Wimbledon title in 2024. That gave him four Slam titles as he entered the US Open — as many as Novak Djokovic (1), Rafael Nadal (3) and Roger Federer (0) had combined at the same age. But Alcaraz still struggled with inconsistency, losing three of five at one point in January and February, three of four in a summer spell that featured both an Olympic loss to Djokovic and a second-round shock against Botic Van De Zandschulp at the US Open, and three of four in the fall.
Alcaraz switched to a heavier racket during tennis’ ever-so-brief offseason, and we’ll see if 2024’s random dry spells were a brief bug or simply a feature of Alcaraz’s outlandish and extremely confidence-based game.
Iga Swiatek
ESPN BET odds: +450 | Tennis Abstract odds: 21.2%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Emma Navarro or No. 9 Daria Kasatkina (quarterfinals)
Here’s what a subpar year looks like for Iga Swiatek: In 2024, the 23-year-old merely won her fourth French Open title, won four 1000-level events, took bronze in the Olympics, went 64-9 overall and finished the year No. 2. In the wake of this disappointment, Swiatek shook up her coaching team, bringing in veteran Wim Fissette.
Since her quarterfinal defeat to Jessica Pegula at the US Open and her brief drug suspension, Swiatek has gone 9-2, losing twice to Coco Gauff but otherwise looking strong. She hasn’t reached the semis of a hard-court Slam since 2022, but it’s still a shock anytime she loses.
Coco Gauff
ESPN BET odds: +450 | Tennis Abstract odds: 17.5%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Jessica Pegula (quarterfinals)
Since losing to Emma Navarro in the US Open round of 16 — it was her second loss to Navarro in as many Slams — Gauff, still only 20, has shifted into fifth gear. She’s 18-2 over the past four months, 3-2 against top-five players. With her speed and resilience, she’s long been one of the more upset-proof players on tour; in fact, she hasn’t lost to a player outside the top 50 since falling to Sofia Kenin, her first-round opponent this week, at Wimbledon in 2023). But now she’s consistently beating the top players too.
Navarro is safely on the other side of the draw, but Gauff’s slate is still rough: She could face either two-time US Open semifinalist Karolina Muchova or four-time hard-court Slam champion Naomi Osaka in the fourth round, US Open finalist Pegula in the quarters and Sabalenka in the semis.
Novak Djokovic
ESPN BET odds: +450 | Tennis Abstract odds: 13.0%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Grigor Dimitrov (fourth round)
Be it a problem of age, motivation or both, Djokovic, 37, is coming off of his worst tour season since 2006. Granted, his terrible season still included an Olympic gold medal (basically the only achievement he previously lacked) and a run to the Wimbledon finals just weeks after he suffered a torn meniscus at the French Open. But he still went just 37-9 in 2024, 2-4 against ATP top-10 players. He dropped five of six sets against Sinner and got smoked by Alcaraz in said Wimbledon final.
Djokovic made a delightful move in bringing the recently retired Andy Murray into his coaching team, and it still won’t be much of a surprise if or when he wins a 25th Slam. But at this point it also wouldn’t be a surprise if his Olympic triumph was his last major title.
Only need a few breaks
Elena Rybakina
ESPN BET odds: +750 | Tennis Abstract odds: 7.2%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Danielle Collins (fourth round)
She has won three of her past five matches against Sabalenka and four of six against Swiatek. She’s won 16 of her past 18 matches at Wimbledon and reached the Australian Open final in 2023. Rybakina, 25, is a big-match player with an enormous game.
She’s also exited four of her past seven Slams before the fourth round. Rybakina withdrew from two tournaments in 2024 (including the US Open) and retired mid-match in four others. Including her US Open withdrawal she won only three of her last eight matches last year, then dealt with a messy coaching situation: She parted ways with Stefano Vukov amid rumors of player mistreatment, hired former Djokovic coach Goran Ivanisevic, then brought Vukov back into the fold. It’s a big, awkward situation, but her game remains prodigious.
Alexander Zverev
ESPN BET odds: +1000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 5.3%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Casper Ruud (quarterfinals)
With a relentlessly consistent serve and an increasing willingness to play sufferball, Zverev enjoyed the best year of his career in 2024, winning 68 matches, reaching the French Open final and Australian Open semis and finishing the year second in the ATP rankings. His patience becomes passivity at times, which is a liability against top players — he went just 2-5 against the top five despite his lofty ranking — but he’s consistent, and he has a pretty favorable draw.
Daniil Medvedev
ESPN BET odds: +1200 | Tennis Abstract odds: 3.5%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 9 Andrey Rublev (fourth round)
He’s been surpassed by Sinner and Alcaraz — against whom he went just 1-8 last year — and he has yet to add a second Slam title to his 2021 US Open crown. And including a pair of Laver Cup losses, he went just 7-8 to finish 2024. But the 28-year-old Medvedev, with his massive wingspan and defensive capabilities, remains one of the most frustrating players to face on the men’s side. He also remains incredibly dangerous on hard courts, where he’s reached the finals in five of his past eight Slams.
Zheng Qinwen
ESPN BET odds: +1400 | Tennis Abstract odds: 8.5%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (quarterfinals)
With Rybakina dealing with so much inconsistency at the moment, Zheng, 22, might be the fourth-best women’s player in the world right now. It’s unfortunate that she might have to beat Sabalenka (against whom she won just one of nine sets in 2024) to get back to the Aussie semifinals, but the defending Olympic gold medalist is still developing her game. She won a higher percentage of both her service points (61.8%) and return points (44.5%) than ever in 2024, and she won titles on both clay and hard courts.
Taylor Fritz
ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Abstract odds: 1.6%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Daniil Medvedev (quarterfinals)
He spent four years trying to move from a top-50 level to top-10 and did it. He spent two years trying to move from the top 10 to the top five and, in 2024, did that too. The 27-year-old reached the finals of both the US Open and Tour finals, going 0-6 against Sinner, Alcaraz and Djokovic but 5-1 against Zverev and Medvedev and finishing the year No. 4 in the world. No one has done a more intriguing job of slowly turning weaknesses into strengths. Does he have one more gear in 2025, or was last year the peak?
Karolina Muchova
ESPN BET odds: +2800 | Tennis Abstract odds: 2.3%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 3 Coco Gauff (fourth round)
She’s only the No. 20 seed, and her potential draw — Gauff in the fourth round, Pegula or Paula Badosa in the quarters, Sabalenka in the semis — is intimidating. But there might not be a player in the world who strikes a tennis ball cleaner than Muchova, and when she’s 100% fit, she’s devastating. After missing the first half of 2024 with injury, Muchova reached the US Open semis and the finals in Beijing, and for the season she went a solid 3-4 against the top 10. She got swept by both Gauff and Swiatek in the recent United Cup, but she also swept French Open and Wimbledon finalist Jasmine Paolini at the same event. There’s no question that the 28-year-old has a potential top-five run in her.
Others: Madison Keys (+2800), Jessica Pegula (+2800), Alex de Minaur (+3300), Jack Draper (+3300), Jasmine Paolini (+3300), Andrey Rublev (+3300), Holger Rune (+3300), Paula Badosa (+4000), Emma Navarro (+4000), Amanda Anisimova (+5000), Grigor Dimitrov (+5000), Beatriz Haddad Maia (+5000), Ugo Humbert (+5000), Ons Jabeur (+5000), Anna Kalinskaya (+5000), Sebastian Korda (+5000), Emma Raducanu (+5000), Casper Ruud (+5000), Maria Sakkari (+5000), Liudmila Samsonova (+5000), Ben Shelton (+5000), Elina Svitolina (+5000), Donna Vekic (+5000).
They love it Down Under
Naomi Osaka
ESPN BET odds: +5000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 3 Coco Gauff (fourth round)
It’s a big year for the four-time Slam champion, who returned to the tour in 2024 following the birth of her first child and randomly flashed massive upside — most notably while coming achingly close to beating Swiatek at the French Open — but still went just 22-18 for the year (6-7 versus the top 20). She said recently that she “won’t hang around” if results don’t improve, but she began 2025 with a run to the finals in Auckland. (She won the first set of the final before retiring with what is hopefully a minor injury.)
Stefanos Tsitsipas
ESPN BET odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Alex de Minaur (fourth round)
He has won 24 of his past 30 Australian Open matches, and he’s a four-time semifinalist and one-time finalist. But over his past three hard-court Slams, Tsitsipas has won just four matches, and against top-20 opponents on the surface in 2024 he went just 1-6. After finishing sixth or better in the ATP rankings for five straight years, he heads to Melbourne ranked just 11th. He’s still only 26 and could piece together another lengthy, strong run of elite form, but he’s listless at the moment.
Others: Victoria Azarenka (+5000, 2012-13 champion), Danielle Collins (+5000, 2022 finalist), Hubert Hurkacz (+5000, 2024 quarterfinalist), Marta Kostyuk (+5000, 2024 quarterfinalist), Tommy Paul (+5000, 2023 semifinalist), Linda Noskova (+6600, 2024 quarterfinalist), Karen Khachanov (+15000, 2023 semifinalist), Stan Wawrinka (+25000, 2014 champion), Sofia Kenin (+50000, 2020 champion), Magda Linette (+10000, 2022 semifinalist), Dayana Yastremska (+10000, 2024 semifinalist).
The 22-and-unders
Mirra Andreeva
ESPN BET odds: +2800 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.9%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (fourth round)
We’re used to youngsters pulling early upsets or making waves with first-week runs at Slams. It’s a fun and reliable subplot, but Andreeva has ambitions far higher than a first-week run. The 17-year-old enters the Australian Open ranked 15th in the world, and she rolled past Sabalenka on the way to the French Open semifinals last year.
Andreeva is still adjusting to life as a favorite — she lost in the first round at Wimbledon and the second at the US Open following her Roland Garros run — but she still finished the year on a 17-6 run, and she already has one of the best returns in the sport. As soon as the serve comes around, she moves into the favorites tier.
Diana Shnaider
ESPN BET odds: +4000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.5%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Zheng Qinwen (fourth round)
There are currently only four under-21 players in the WTA top 50: Gauff, Andreeva, Noskova and the 20-year-old Shnaider, who teamed with Andreeva to win the doubles silver medal at last summer’s Olympics. Only 5-foot-7, Shnaider has a unique game on tour, hitting a hard lefty ball and maintaining a high level of intensity. She beat Gauff in Toronto, and she reached her first Slam third round at Wimbledon, then her first fourth round at the US Open. She has actually passed Andreeva to 13th in the WTA rankings.
Joao Fonseca
ESPN BET odds: +25000 | Tennis Abstract odds: 0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 9 Andrey Rublev (first round)
His stay in Melbourne might be brief, but catch a glimpse of Fonseca while you can. The 18-year-old Brazilian won the Next Generation ATP Finals in December and dropped only 12 games in six sets while rolling through three qualification matches this past week. Though only 113th in the ATP rankings, he’s already in the top 30 in the results-based Tennis Abstract Elo rankings, which actually give him an almost 50-50 chance of beating Rublev in the first round of his first Slam. No one’s a surefire future star at 18, but it feels like Fonseca is awfully close.
Others: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (+6600), Arthur Fils (+8000), Jakub Mensik (+15000), Alex Michelsen (+15000)
The comeback kids
Nick Kyrgios
ESPN BET odds: +4000 | Tennis Abstract odds: <0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 2 Alexander Zverev (third round)
His last tour win came in Tokyo in October 2022. He has missed almost all of two years with knee, foot and wrist injuries. He has settled into life as a pundit and podcaster, but he’s also giving actual tennis another go. Or he’s trying to, at least. After losing a three-setter to rising youngster Mpetshi Perricard in Brisbane, Kyrgios withdrew from an exhibition match with Djokovic because of an abdominal injury. If he plays, he’ll fill the stands. But we’ll see.
Others: Marketa Vondrousova (+5000), Reilly Opelka (+12500)
The Aussies
Alexei Popyrin
ESPN BET odds: +6600 | Tennis Abstract odds: <0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Daniil Medvedev (third round)
Kyrgios and de Minaur aside, there are a few other Australian players who could light the crowd up for a few matches. That list almost has to start with the 6-foot-5 Popyrin, who knocked Djokovic out in four sets in last year’s US Open. That was one of six top-10 wins on the season for the 25-year-old who can still be inconsistent at times but comes up huge against the biggest players. A potential third-round match against Medvedev would be a heavyweight slugfest.
Thanasi Kokkinakis
ESPN BET odds: +15000 | Tennis Abstract odds: <0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz (fourth round)
After what felt like millions of injuries, the 28-year-old won a match at all four Slams for the first time in his career in 2024, and he could present a stiff challenge to either No. 15 Draper in the second round, No. 22 Korda in the third or Alcaraz in the fourth. He’s a crowd pleaser with quite a bit of Davis Cup success on his résumé.
Maya Joint
ESPN BET odds: +100000 | Tennis Abstract odds: <0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Jessica Pegula (first round)
Like Fonseca, Joint, a major 2025 breakout candidate, might not stay long in Melbourne due to a first-round matchup against Pegula. But the 18-year-old Aussie (by way of Grosse Pointe, Michigan) hits a big ball and scored her first tour (and Slam) win over Laura Siegemund in the US Open. She has begun the season brilliantly, taking Azarenka to three sets in Brisbane and dropping just six total games in wins over Kenin and Linette in Hobart this past week.
Others: Jordan Thompson (+15000), Kimberly Birrell (+100000), Olivia Gadecki (+100000), Ajla Tomljanovic (+100000)
