How KAT, Mikal Bridges have impacted fantasy values in New York, plus two futures bets to make on Knicks

Last season, the New York Knicks won 61.0% of their regular season games, earned the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference and went to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals before injuries and attrition wore them down against the Indiana Pacers.

This offseason, the Knicks remade their starting lineup with two blockbuster trades that brought in Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges along with incumbents Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart.

So what have we learned about this group now that we’re halfway through this season? What is their expected value for the rest of the regular season and playoffs, and what do their fantasy basketball prospects look like moving forward? Let’s explore.

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At the exact 41-game mark, the Knicks are 26-15 for a 63.4 win percentage that is just slightly ahead of last season’s 50-win pace. But they are doing it very differently, with a powerful and dynamic offense (120.5 Offensive Rating, second in NBA) but a mediocre defense (113.8 Defensive Ratings, 17th in NBA). Last season they were strong, but not dominant, at both ends of the court with the seventh-best ORTG (118.2 points per 100 possessions) and the 10th-best DRTG (113.4 points allowed per 100 possessions).

Even a quick perusal of those numbers points out the reality that the Knicks’ defense is actually performing very similarly to last season overall, but the league as a whole is playing better defense this season so they are worse at that end relative to the rest of the league.

This also points out the counter, that for the Knicks’ offense to be 2.3 PP100 more efficient this season even with better league-wide defense indicates their offense is significantly better relative to the league this season than last.

What’s working

First, having a clear identity as a dominant offensive team raises the team’s ceiling. Their current offense features two All-NBA caliber performers in Brunson (sixth in NBA MVP voting last season) and Towns (ninth-shortest MVP odds this season, per ESPNBET) whose games synergize well with one another.

Towns is one of the best shooting big men in the NBA who can finish at very high efficiency both inside (59.3 2P%) and outside (44.9 3P%) the arc. Brunson, on the other hand, is elite at creating offense off the dribble all over the court for both himself (53.0 2P%, 38.5 3P%) and his teammates (7.6 APG vs 2.4 TO).

Both dominate against 1-on-1 defense, and both are strong in the pick-and-roll/pop game that creates even more distinct mismatches and generates easy looks for the entire team all over the court. That last shows up in the team’s 3-point shooting. All five Knicks starters are knocking down between 1.3 and 2.3 3PG with effective field goal percentages (factors in both 3- and 2-point shots) between 54.5% and 61.7%.

A closer look shows that Brunson is the only starter creating his own 3-pointers, with only 46.7%of his 3-pointers assisted while the other four starters are assisted on between 86.5% (Josh Hart) and 100% (OG Anunoby) of their 3-point makes. With Brunson as the alpha creator in the backcourt, and Towns as the elite finishing big man that generates space for his teammates and exerts gravity on opposing defenses, the Knicks’ offense is difficult to game plan against.

What isn’t working

There’s no other way to put it — the Knicks’ defense has disappointed. On paper, the trio of Anunoby (eighth in All-Defensive Voting Shares in 2022-23), Bridges (second in 2021-22) and Hart (23rd in 2023-24) should have given them one of the best trios of perimeter defenders in the NBA.

In practice, though, Anunoby is playing almost exclusively as an undersized power forward, more of an interior defending role which isn’t his strong suit. While Hart is still one of the best rebounding wings in the NBA, he and Bridges have both struggled more as cover defenders than they have in the past.

Part of the reason for their struggles may be that neither Brunson or Towns are strong defenders for their position. So, opposing point guards can penetrate and break down the team defense more easily while the lack of rim protection means the wing defenders are on more of an island without anyone to dissuade opponents from entering the paint. The latter could be helped by the potential return of Mitchell Robinson, with his 1.9 BPG career average. Robinson has missed the entire season with an ankle injury, but is expected to be cleared for full practice at some point in January so his return is on the horizon. Robinson would give the Knicks a true interior defensive presence, and could also play alongside KAT to give the Knicks more on-court size against bigger opponents. Let’s not forget that KAT played power forward next to Rudy Gobert his last two seasons in Minnesota.

Fantasy hoops outlook

All five Knicks starters currently rank in the top-85 in the league in fantasy points per game (points leagues), and in the top-45 in the league in the ESPN Player Rater (category leagues). Towns leads them in both formats, making him the fantasy hoops King of New York even though his ADP (14.0) was slightly behind teammate Brunson’s. Towns leads the league in rebounding which, in conjunction with his strong scoring, 3-point shooting and efficient shooting percentages, makes him one of the most valuable fantasy basketball producers in the NBA.

While Brunson is second on the Knicks in fantasy points per game, third is the surprising Hart (37th in FP/G), whose combination of strong rebounding, field goal percentage, assists and steals has him ninth on the Player Rater. Considering Hart’s name-recognition is still low relative to his production, he is probably the best pound-for-pound fantasy hoops value on the Knicks and the one you should most consider targeting in trade talks.

Futures angles and bets to make

Odds by ESPN BET

ESPN BET has the Knicks’ regular season wins set at 53.5. They are off the board to make the playoffs, +850 to win the Atlantic division, +550 to win the East and +1200 to win the Championship.

Here are two bets that stand out:

Over 53.5 wins: Assuming they continue to stay relatively healthy, the Knicks are a solid bet to go over 53.5 wins (even). They started the season slowly, winning only two of their first seven games, but since then have gone 24-10, a 70.6% win rate that would project to an additional 29 wins over their last 41 games…or 55 wins overall.

Keep in mind, though, that health is a legitimate question mark given coach Tom Thibodeaux’s penchant for playing his starters big minutes. All five Knicks starters have played at least 38 of their 41 games, and all five are averaging at least 34.7 MPG. There is some possibility the lineup could wear down, the way they did during the playoffs last season.

Knicks to win the East (+550): This would likely require their defense to improve significantly with Robinson’s return, but if that happened they would have a legit chance against both the East-leading Cavaliers and the defending champion Celtics in a seven-game series. The Knicks beat up the Cavaliers in the playoffs two seasons ago and have an offense that could go toe-to-toe even against the mighty Celtics.