Buzz: Back-and-forth line movement, lopsided action on the over, Barkley

February 8, 2025 ndowd

Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.

Our Super Bowl betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation leading up to the big game.

Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | ESPN BET

Feb. 8: Back-and-forth line movement, lopsided action on the over, Saquon Barkley

David Purdum: The Super Bowl line, which had been mostly stagnant for over a week, moved multiple times Friday at ESPN BET. But the adjustments wouldn’t stick.

At 11:22 a.m. Friday, the sportsbook moved the line from Kansas Chiefs -1 (-105) to a pick ’em. It was the first time ESPN BET had moved the game to a pick ’em. It would last roughly seven minutes, before Kansas City was once again a 1-point favorite.

Later in the day, around 2:40 p.m., ESPN BET moved all the way to Philadelphia Eagles -1, but again quickly shifted back to the Chiefs as the favorite.

“Wagers are fairly balanced right now across both teams,” Adrian Horton of ESPN BET said. “The action is a little heavier on Philadelphia for the game, but from a futures perspective, an Eagles win would be a better result for us.”

While the action entering the weekend was balanced on the winner, the betting had been lopsided on the total and select player props.

• Total: The over/under had been as high as 49.5 last week but remained at a consensus 48.5 on Saturday morning, despite lopsided action on the over. Sportsbooks were reporting upward of 80% of the money that had been wagered was on the over. The two largest reported bets on the total, however, were on the under — $125,000 on under 49.5 at BetMGM and $110,000 on under 49 at Caesars Sportsbook.

“A low-scoring game would be good for us, as the over has been lopsided since we opened,” Horton said.

• Saquon Barkley: Bettors continue to flock to bet on the Eagles’ star running back. FanDuel reported Friday that Barkley had attracted nearly three times as many Super Bowl MVP bets as Patrick Mahomes. Approximately 91% of the money bet on Barkley’s rushing yards (109.5) was on the over at FanDuel entering the weekend.

Feb. 7: Chiefs fatigue hitting betting public

Doug Greenberg: With the Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift craze at an all-time high last year, the Kansas City Chiefs tight end was a darling in the Super Bowl prop markets. Kelce led the MVP, touchdown and other props in bets and handle at multiple sportsbooks heading into Super Bowl LVII. The books also leaned into the mania with an assortment of Swift-themed props.

One year later, the Swelce relationship is still a pop culture talking point but not nearly to the same extent, and public bettors could also be suffering from Chiefs fatigue given the strong support for the Philadelphia Eagles in early wagering. As a result, Kelce’s prop popularity is waning somewhat ahead of Super Bowl LIX, though his superstar status on the field will always ensure he gets some action.

At multiple sportsbooks, Kelce is either the third or fourth most-bet anytime touchdown scorer, with ESPN BET specifically reporting him behind Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley. Barkley, who has double the number of bets in the market compared to Kelce, has been easily the most-bet player in early Super Bowl action.

Bet tracking app Pikkit says that Kelce ($436,000) has less money tracked on his props across sportsbooks than Dallas Goedert ($490,000), though the Kansas City tight end (19,000) has attracted more bets than Philly’s (16,500). Kelce ranks sixth in player prop handle and fifth in tickets, per Pikkit’s data.

Despite the fact that a tight end has never won Super Bowl MVP, Kelce is still attracting solid action there, taking the fourth-most bets to win the honor at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM, which also reports him as having the second-most handle (behind only Barkley) after it took a $25,000 wager at +1500 odds.

The book says he’s the largest liability in that market and that, “Saquon and Kelce are the worst outcome for touchdown scorers,” per BET MGM senior trading manager Christian Cipollini.

Of course, some books are still leaning into the Swiftie mania as permitted: BetMGM’s sportsbook in Ontario, Canada, is offering a prop on Kelce proposing to Swift at some point during the festivities, with “Yes” at +800 and “No” at -2000.

Odds & Ends

ESPN BET briefly moved its spread for Super Bowl LIX to a pick ’em on Friday, before reverting back to Chiefs -1 (-105). Bettors can still get -110 for either side on the moneyline as of early Friday afternoon. Caesars Sportsbook shows an identical line.
With the spread for Super Bowl LIX being as tight as it is, bettors are taking the moneyline at a higher clip than the spread: Pikkit reports nearly five times as many bets tracked on the Chiefs’ moneyline compared to their spread, and nearly six-times as many bets on the Eagles’ moneyline compared to their spread.
On Thursday, two sportsbooks — BetMGM and the South Point in Las Vegas — reported taking $5,000 bets on the Super Bowl coin flip to land tails. Those are the largest reported bets on the coin flip so far. BetMGM says coin toss outcome is its most popular prop as of Friday morning.

Feb. 6: Eagles support continues; Sportsbook apps to stream Super Bowl

David Purdum: The betting public continues to support the underdog Philadelphia Eagles as Super Bowl weekend approaches.

ESPN BET on Thursday morning dropped the point spread from Kansas City -1.5 to -1. The line peaked briefly at Chiefs -2.5 on Jan. 27 but has been shrinking this week with nearly 60% of the money wagered backing the Eagles at ESPN BET.

“We’ve seen sustained momentum on the Eagles over the last few days, which evened out and has now started to overtake early action on the Chiefs,” Adrian Horton, director of North American sports trading at ESPN BET, said. “The split of tickets and money continues to tick towards Philly as we get into the heavier wagering days leading up to the game.”

Upwards of 90% of the total money wagered on the Super Bowl is expected to be placed over the next three days, leading up to Sunday’s kickoff. The favorite could flip from Chiefs to Eagles, bookmakers say.

Other sportsbooks made the jump to -1 earlier in the week, and some bookmakers have been considering moving to pick ’em or even making the Eagles the favorites. In the Super Bowl era, 543 games have closed with a point spread of -1, according to ESPN Research. The favored team won 53.4% of those games. Eight of those games were decided with the favored team winning by exactly one point.

Bettors can watch (and bet) the Super Bowl on sportsbook apps

Bettors will be able to watch and bet on the Super Bowl from select sportsbook apps on Sunday through an enhanced same-screen experience called BetVision, which allows users to click on a player in the game, see what bets are available on him and place a wager from the same spot.

BetVision, a product from international technology firm Genius Sports, is the latest iteration in live betting. In the United Kingdom’s sports betting market, live or in-game betting is more popular than pre-match wagering. It hasn’t reached the same level in the U.S., where the majority of bets are still placed prior to kickoff in most cases.

Fanatics and bet365 sportsbooks in the U.S. have implemented the latest version of BetVision, which includes the ability to place bets from the same screen while watching the game. Other sportsbooks are utilizing an earlier version of BetVision that doesn’t include the integration of a bet slip to the viewing screen.

According to Genius Sports, bettors using BetVision placed 59% of their bets during games, compared to before kickoff.

Odds & ends

The betting action on the total continues to be lopsided on over 48.5. ESPN BET reported that approximately 85% of the bets and 81% of the money wagered on the total was on the over as of Thursday morning. However, the largest reported bet on the total at BetMGM was $125,000 on under 48.5.
Tails had attracted 55% of the money bet on the Super Bowl coin flip as of Thursday morning at BetMGM. Past Super Bowl coin-flip results: 30 tails, 28 heads.

Feb. 5: $800,000 on Eagles, $10 on offensive lineman for MVP lead notable bets

David Purdum: The big bets are starting to show up on Super Bowl LIX, including some head-scratching ones.

For example, a bettor with BetMGM donated … err, placed a $10 wager on Philadelphia Eagles offensive lineman Landon Dickerson to win MVP at 1000-1 odds. An offensive lineman has never won the award.

The largest bet so far — $800,000 on the Eagles money line — was reported Wednesday by BetMGM and continues a trend of action on the underdogs. ESPN BET said it took a $200,000 money-line bet on the Eagles (+105), DraftKings has one at +105 for $150,000, and Caesars Sportsbook reported that its largest futures bet on either team was $200,000 on Philadelphia, placed Jan. 19 by a bettor in Michigan at +275 odds. The bet would pay a net $550,000 if the Eagles win.

More bets had been placed on the Eagles’ money line than any other Super Bowl wager on the betting menu at BetMGM, and the majority of money-line bets are on Philadelphia in every state the sportsbook serves, except Kansas.

Kansas City was a consensus 1-point favorite Wednesday. The largest reported bet on the Chiefs was $300,000 on the money line at -130 odds at BetMGM.

Among the more obscure bets reported:

$2,000 on the final score being Chiefs 27-23 at 175-1 odds at BetMGM.
$83,500 on no player having both a rushing and receiving touchdown in the game at -835 at BetRivers. The bet would win $10,000.
A $10 two-leg parlay on Chiefs tight end Noah Gray to score the first touchdown and Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt to score the second touchdown at 175-1 odds at BetMGM.

Feb. 4: Vegas bookmaker predicts Eagles will go off as Super Bowl favorites

Purdum: The Super Bowl point spread shifted slightly toward the underdog Philadelphia Eagles on Monday, moving from Kansas City -1.5 to -1 at multiple sportsbooks. This was the first line movement in over a week, and at least one Las Vegas sportsbook expects this trend to continue.

“The consensus opinion in our risk room is that Philly will go off favored,” John Murray, executive director at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, told ESPN. “Call it an educated guess. We have been wrong about that before and could be wrong this time, but we think the Eagles will get there over the course of this week.”

Most of the betting on the Super Bowl will take place this week. Murray estimates only 5% of the money that ultimately will be staked on the game had been placed as of Monday.

“A lot of wise guys have been hitting props,” Murray said, “but the big wagers and the public prop wagers aren’t here yet.”

The under on Eagles running back Saquon Barkley‘s longest run in the Super Bowl attracted wise-guy action at the SuperBook, which moved the line from 25.5 yards to 23.5 yards. The over/under had settled back at 24.5 yards on Monday.

Barkley (-190) has attracted the most bets and most money wagered in ESPN BET’s touchdown-scorer market.

Why Loza is apprehensive about Kelce’s Super Bowl MVP odds

Liz Loza breaks down why she is not betting Travis Kelce’s Super Bowl MVP odds at current price and gives her current pick for the award.

Jan. 31: A big Kelce MVP bet among early Super Bowl action

Purdum: Highlights from early Super Bowl betting include divided money at sportsbooks on the winner, a new favorite Gatorade color and the largest reported MVP bet so far, placed on Kansas City’s talented tight end.

BetMGM reported taking a $25,000 bet on Chiefs TE Travis Kelce to win Super Bowl MVP, the largest reported MVP bet as of Thursday. At 15-1, the bet would win $375,000. Even with the big bet included, more money has been bet on Eagles RB Saquon Barkley than any other player in the MVP market. The largest MVP liabilities for Caesars Sportsbook, though, are on a pair of longshots: Eagles DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson (400-1) and Kansas City kicker Harrison Butker (150-1).
The Kansas City Chiefs remained consensus 1.5-point favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles. The line ticked up to -2 briefly on Monday, but has not seen any movement since. On Thursday, ESPN BET reported that the Eagles had attracted more money-line bets than the Chiefs in 17 out of the 20 jurisdictions in which the sportsbook operates. Arizona, Kansas and New York are the only states in which the majority of bettors have sided with the Chiefs on the money line. However, overall, the bigger bets are Kansas City, with 64.1% of the “Super Bowl winner” money wagered on the Chiefs (-125) at ESPN BET.
Caesars Sportsbook also reported relatively balanced action on both the money line and point spread: “A Chiefs win by exactly two or three points is currently our biggest liability,” Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, told ESPN. “In terms of total points, a high-scoring game would be a great result for customers. Right now, the over is sitting at 2-1 in terms of handle.”
Purple, considered a second-tier contender earlier in the week, moved into the role of favorite at multiple sportsbooks. Yellow/green/lime remains the favorite at ESPN BET. Betting on the color of Gatorade is allowed in just two states: Illinois and New Jersey. The average size of bet on the novelty Gatorade market is “$5-10,” according to BetMGM.