NBA playoffs betting trends on odds, ATS stats and more

The NBA playoffs tip off Saturday with the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks entering the postseason as the +275 betting favorites. That is tied for the longest odds for the betting favorite entering the postseason since 2000, making this a wide-open playoffs on paper.

The 4-seed Phoenix Suns are favored to win the West, making them the third team seeded fourth or lower to be a conference favorite entering the playoffs, and the first since the 2021 Los Angeles Lakers lost in the first round as a 7-seed against the Suns.

The Golden State Warriors are the second favorites in the West. They are the first six seed to be at least a -200 road favorite in a playoff series in the past 35 seasons.

While the Los Angeles Lakers are seventh in title odds at Caesars Sportsbook (14-1), they are series underdogs against the Memphis Grizzlies. It would be the first time LeBron James has ever closed as a playoff underdog.

---

Playoff Trends

Unders were 51-34-2 in the playoffs last season, including 21-6 in Games 5-7. Unders are 223-186-10 over the past five postseasons, including 68-49-2 in Games 5-7. Unders in Game 1 are also 35-24-1 over the last four postseasons.

Home teams are 42-33 ATS in Game 1 of playoff series in the last five postseasons. Unders are 42-32-1 in Game 1 in that span (35-24-1 in last four postseasons).

Over the last five postseasons, home teams are 88-61-1 ATS in the first two games of playoff series, including 47-32 ATS in the first round. Road teams are 36-20 ATS in Games 6 and 7 in that span (13-4 ATS in Game 7).

Over the last 11 postseasons, teams favored by at least six points are 227-170-4 ATS (.572). Last postseason, teams favored by at least 8.5 points were 2-8 ATS, while favorites of 6-8 points were 17-3 ATS.

---

Phoenix Suns (-470) at LA Clippers (+350)

• This is the widest series price in a 4-5 first-round matchup since 2018 when the Cleveland Cavaliers were -600 against the Indiana Pacers (won in 7 games).

• The Suns were -200 favorites when they beat the Clippers in the 2021 Western Conference Finals (Clippers +170).

• The Suns were 2-2 outright and 3-1 ATS against the Clippers during the regular season. Kevin Durant played in none of those games.

• The Suns were 8-0 outright and 6-2 ATS with Kevin Durant in the lineup. Overs and unders were 4-4.

• Phoenix is 8-4 ATS in first-round games under Monty Williams.

• The Clippers were 40-42 ATS this season. They were 28-24 ATS with Kawhi Leonard in the lineup.

• Clippers road games were 26-15 to the over, while Clippers home games were 26-14-1 to the under.

---

Philadelphia 76ers (-900) at Brooklyn Nets (+600)

• The 76ers were 48-34 ATS during the regular season, the best mark in the NBA, and tied with the 2016-17 season for the 76ers’ best mark in the last 30 seasons. Overs were 45-36-1 in 76ers games.

• The -900 series price is Philadelphia’s second-largest series price as a favorite in the last 35 seasons, only behind the 1st round in 2021 when the 76ers beat the Wizards in five games as -1000 favorites.

• The Nets were 43-39 ATS during the regular season with unders going 44-38. They were 13-14 ATS since Mikal Bridges‘ debuted Feb. 11 (unders: 15-12).

• The 76ers went 4-0 outright and 3-1 ATS in the regular season against the Nets. Overs were 3-1.

• Doc Rivers is 16-31 ATS in potential series-clinching games, including 3-14 ATS since leaving the Boston Celtics.

• Philadelphia was 9-6 ATS when laying at least eight points this season. However, out of the six times they failed to cover, they lost outright five times.

• A Nets series win would be the largest series upset since the 2020 Western Conference semifinals when the Denver Nuggets (+850) upset the Los Angeles Clippers. The last time a +600 underdog won a playoff series outside of the 2020 pandemic bubble was in the 1st round of 2012 when the Philadelphia 76ers (+900) upset the Chicago Bulls after Derrick Rose got hurt.

---

Cleveland Cavaliers (-210) at New York Knicks (+175)

• This is the first time the Cavaliers have been favored in a playoff series without LeBron James on the roster since the first round in 1996, when they lost the series as -185 favorites against the New York Knicks.

• The Cavaliers were 27-16-1 ATS in the regular season when favored by at least four points and 16-21 ATS in all other games (7-10 ATS as underdogs).

• Tom Thibodeau is 6-21 outright and 11-16 ATS as a postseason underdog. The Knicks were 1-4 outright and ATS in the playoffs last season under Thibodeau with unders going 4-0-1.

• The Knicks went 3-1 outright and ATS against the Cavaliers this season, all as an underdog, including winning the last three meetings outright.

• Knicks overs were 24-16-1 as a favorite this season (18-20 as underdog).

---

Sacramento Kings (+225) vs. Golden State Warriors (-275)

• The Kings are the first top-3 seed to be at least a +200 first-round underdog in the last 35 seasons, while the Warriors are the first team seeded 6th or lower to be a -200 series favorite in Round 1 in that span. They are the fourth road team in the last 20 postseasons to be at least a -200 road favorite in the first round.

• The Warriors are the seventh team in the last 20 seasons to be a road favorite in a first-round playoff series despite being a 6 seed or worse. Five of the previous six actually lost their series as road favorites, including each of the four instances.

• The Warriors were 11-30 outright on the road this season, the fourth-worst record in the NBA, only ahead of the Spurs, Rockets and Pistons. The Warriors were a league-worst 12-29 ATS on the road, the second-worst mark in the regular season by any team in the last 30 seasons, only ahead of the 2020-21 Cleveland Cavaliers (10-26 ATS in shortened season). However, the Kings were only 18-23 ATS at home.

• While they struggled on the road, the Warriors were 33-8 at home this season, including a league-best 27-13-1 ATS. They were 5-0 ATS as home underdogs. However, the Kings had the best ATS road record in the NBA at 27-14, including 14-7 ATS as a road favorite and 13-7 ATS as a road underdog.

• Both teams also had drastic home-road total splits. Overs were 28-12-1 in Warriors road games, compared to unders going 23-17-1 at home. Kings home games were 25-15-1 to the over, while Kings road games were 25-15-1 to the under.

• The Kings exceeded expectations this season, becoming the biggest longshot to win any division in the NBA, NFL, MLB or NHL in the last decade, winning the Pacific at 250-1. Their win total was also 34.5, the lowest out of any team to reach the playoffs. They entered the season 350-1 to win the NBA title and 150-1 to win the Western Conference.

• Mike Brown is 48-34-1 ATS in his postseason career (.585). Steve Kerr is 68-57-2 ATS in his postseason career (.544).

• The Warriors were 45-35-2 to the over this season, tied for the fourth-highest mark in the NBA.

---

Boston Celtics (-1000) vs Atlanta Hawks (+650)

• This is Boston’s largest favorite price in a series since the first round of 2008 when they were -8000 favorites against the Hawks (won in 7 games).

• The Celtics have won and covered five-straight meetings, including all three meetings this season.

• Hawks games were 47-36 to the over this season (.566), the third-highest mark in the NBA, including 29-18 as a favorite. Celtics games were 42-39-1 to the over, but 25-15 at home.

• Unders are 17-5-1 in Hawks playoff games over the past two postseasons, including 5-0 last postseason.

• The Celtics were 17-15-1 ATS when favored by at least nine points this season. However, they were only 24-9 outright.

• A Hawks series win would be the largest series upset since the 2020 Western Conference semifinals when the Denver Nuggets (+850) upset the Los Angeles Clippers. The last time a +600 underdog won a playoff series outside of the 2020 pandemic bubble was in the 1st round of 2012 when the Philadelphia 76ers (+900) upset the Chicago Bulls after Derrick Rose got hurt.

• Play-in tournament winners are 6-3 ATS in their first playoff game.

• The Hawks have not been more than a 7.5-point favorite this season with Trae Young in the lineup. With Young, the Hawks are 3-3 outright and ATS as at least a four-point underdog, including their win in the play-in tournament as five-point underdogs at the Miami Heat.

• Two seeds are 99-73 ATS in the last five postseasons. Over the last six postseasons, seven and eight seeds are a combined 44-82-1 ATS.

---

Memphis Grizzlies (-135) vs Los Angeles Lakers (+115)

• This is the first time LeBron James has ever been an underdog in a first-round playoff series.

• This is the third-best line for a 7-seed in a first-round playoff series in the last 35 seasons. The Lakers were -175 road favorites in 2021 against the Suns (lost), while the Celtics swept the Nets last season as -130 favorites. This is just the sixth first-round 2-7 series in the last 35 seasons where the favorite did not have at least -200 odds.

• Unders are 14-3 in 17 meetings since James joined the Lakers in 2018. The home team won and covered all three meetings this season (the Grizzlies were favored in all three regular-season meetings).

• Lakers overs were 25-16 on the road compared to 18-24 at home. The Lakers’ final eight regular-season games went over the total, but their play-in game against Minnesota ended 23.5 points under the total despite going to overtime.

• James’ teams are 3-14 outright and 6-11 ATS in Game 1 of playoff series on the road.

• James is 148-115-3 ATS in the playoffs (.563).

• Play-in tournament winners are 6-3 ATS in their first playoff game.

• Two seeds are 99-73 ATS in the last five postseasons. Over the last six postseasons, seven and eight seeds are a combined 44-82-1 ATS.