Return of Tatis highlights NL West showdown

Fernando Tatis Jr. is back from suspension and ready to make his first MLB appearance since Oct. 3, 2021, on Thursday, as his San Diego Padres visit the NL West-leading Arizona Diamondbacks for the first of a four-game series. It’s a matchup between what has been a disappointing team (yet a popular division winner pick in the preseason) in the Padres and a Diamondbacks squad getting things done with speed and defense.

Tatis is rostered in 98.8% of ESPN leagues, and he was selected 27th (on average) in ESPN’s standard points leagues and 16th in NFBC’s rotisserie formats in the preseason, so naturally he’s a universally obvious immediate start. However, what should fantasy managers expect from this 24-year-old superstar who has unfortunately already missed 52% of his team’s games over his first five big-league seasons?

Tristan H. Cockcroft and Eric Karabell have the answers on that, as well as the coming weekend’s other big fantasy baseball stories.

Cockcroft: It’s tough to doubt Tatis’ ability to tear up Diamondbacks pitching despite all those absences, considering he scorched Triple-A pitching to the tune of .515/.590/1.212 rates and seven home runs in eight tuneup games. Besides that, the Diamondbacks have the majors’ fifth-worst reliever ERA (5.50) and 13th-worst starter ERA (4.58). The shame is that Tatis won’t get to face the Diamondbacks’ worst starter, Madison Bumgarner, whom he has clobbered throughout his career (7-for-14, 2 HR), but he has been pretty good against Friday and Saturday starters Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly (combined 10-for-27, 5 HR).

Tatis has loved to hit at Chase Field throughout his career (.408/.456/.918 rates, 6 HR in 13 career games) and his 1.375 OPS there is his highest in any venue at which he has played at least five games. There are no small-sample caveats here, as you can toss those numbers away and it’s still indisputable that Tatis is a real difference-maker. Or at least I think I heard someone say that on video on these pages this week?

The brief, roster-fallout bad news: Trent Grisham loses his leadoff spot against righties, probably moving into the No. 8 spot between Ha-Seong Kim and Austin Nola, which deflates his value somewhat. Tatis is going to lead off, though that’s generally a great thing for this sluggish-starting lineup, top-to-bottom.

Karabell: Great stuff, sir, but I think we all agree Tatis is awesome and if there was anything the Padres and fantasy managers could do to keep him healthy and forever unsuspended, we would do it! There are other reasons to watch the Padres this weekend. RHP Joe Musgrove debuts Saturday and while the toe fracture should be healed, um, what about the cortisone shot to his shoulder? Like nobody is discussing this! Musgrove is important, too.

Also, not to bury the lead, but perhaps you’ve noticed over the years that I kind of have an unhealthy over reliance on DH Nelson Cruz (as if!) and I think he’s thisclose to fully seizing a spot on myriad fantasy rosters again. Forget last year. Aberration! He can see now! The mind boggles at how many RBI chances Cruz (and I suppose Matt Carpenter) will get in this loaded lineup. I’ve already added Cruz in several leagues and have planned my Hall of Fame visit for his immediate induction in 2032.

Cockcroft: But he’s 17 years older than me… nah, I can’t keep that afloat. I actually have an NL-only league where I’m aggravated that J.D. Martinez clogs my DH/utility spot so Cruz can’t benefit me. That said, looking at what is now three weeks’ worth of adds, he’s probably the highest-return prospective pickup in that league. Argh.

Karabell: What about Arizona? That team is in first! We’re going to talk rookies today and I would add Diamondbacks prospect Brandon Pfaadt now because Bumgarner clearly has nothing left. Praise Bumgarner for his achievements but Pfaadt should be up next week.

Cockcroft: Bumgarner has nearly two years and $35 million left on his contract. Too soon? Seriously, though, can you please make the Pfaadt promotion happen? I’ve got three shares of him, and it’s way overdue.

Talking up Arizona is a good call, especially in that you’re right, Musgrove isn’t the slam-dunk in his 2023 debut that Tatis is. I love the guy, but I’ve been searching the rationale for the 7-grade Forecaster call for Diamondbacks lefties, and maybe it’s just seeing a ton of lefties in that lineup and saying, “Hey, lookie here.”

Corbin Carroll stands out in a huge way. He’s a .277/.348/.563 hitter against righties in the bigs so far. Plus, this might be Jake McCarthy‘s bounce-back series. Heck, even Ketel Marte has a compelling matchups case, though you and I know from our sim experience that he’s more appealing when batting from the right side of the plate. I’ve also got my eye on Sunday’s Yu Darvish start. He has allowed four steals already and is generally easy to run against. You’d think that he’d be a tough matchup, but I like it for those two young D-backs, especially.

Karabell: Shortstop is on my mind this weekend — and not only because I can’t wait to see Mookie Betts playing there for the Dodgers. That other Los Angeles team called up Zach Neto, after he barely played in the minors, and I think he’s an emerging star. He could settle in as the Angels’ leadoff hitter! That is so enticing!

Of course, there’s always something to discuss at shortstop. Anthony Volpe can clearly run, but will the Yankees just let him run with the leadoff spot? Is Jorge Mateo healthy and going to steal tons of bases again? Pittsburgh’s Rodolfo Castro looks legit. Colorado’s rookie Ezequiel Tovar should be legit, and I look forward to getting a closer look at him in Philadelphia this weekend. And, circling back to Arizona, both Geraldo Perdomo and Nick Ahmed are top-25 shortstops on the ESPN Player Rater, though I’m not investing.

Are there any other potential timeshares or young players on your mind?

Cockcroft: I’m glad you brought up Neto and Volpe, since they certainly are on my mind — and you know I’ve been watching their midweek series closely. Neto has good bat-to-ball skills, roped two doubles Wednesday (albeit against Jhony Brito), and I like the Angels’ commitment to him, both with the two leadoff starts (on Taylor Ward and Mike Trout maintenance days), à la the Yankees with Volpe (and now that seems to be Volpe’s gig for at least Giancarlo Stanton‘s four-to-six week IL stint). I think the arrow points upward from here for both, with Neto’s skills being more appealing for points leagues because of the contact, and Volpe better for roto because of how disruptive his approach on the basepaths is to opposing pitchers.

The Angels, after this Yankees series wraps, pitch Shohei Ohtani against the Royals (which is a heck of a matchup) after his rain-influenced early Monday exit, and Neto, Ohtani and their hitters get a dream series of home matchups against a spot starter (probably Ryan Yarbrough), Zack Greinke and Jordan Lyles. Their top five — yes, Neto included — need to be in all lineups accordingly.

Looking elsewhere, Castro’s Pirates get a sneaky-good set of home matchups (four of them) against the Reds — though to be fair, Friday and Sunday starters Graham Ashcraft and Hunter Greene are pretty good pitchers. I added Castro in my points league, partly because I’m missing Oneil Cruz and playing matchups, and partly for that Coors Field series that just wrapped, but I’d keep Castro around. The Pirates offense leans pretty left-handed, and in deeper-than-standard leagues I’d consider Carlos Santana, Jack Suwinski and even Ji Hwan Bae (.302/.380/.476 against righties in the bigs so far).

I’m also “all-in” on Twins hitters for their series against the weak Nationals pitching staff. It’s an obvious pick, yes, but Edouard Julien has had his moments, could get more leadoff time, and is available in more than 95% of ESPN leagues!

Karabell: While I’m sure that Reds-Pirates series will feature scintillating baseball, the Blue Jays-Yankees and Astros-Braves sets are potential playoff previews (and yes, that means we’ve got our World Series matchup in place, perhaps). I am interested in Friday’s Yusei Kikuchi–Domingo German matchup because I originally had no interest in either pitcher for fantasy, but with the way they have both performed recently, perhaps I should have some. I assume Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman bounce back from recent struggles and, certainly, Gerrit Cole might win 30 games this season… or perhaps far fewer.

Atlanta starts Bryce Elder and Kyle Wright this weekend and the former looks great so far and the latter won 21 games a season ago, but they need to pitch well because Mike Soroka (Google him, he used to be really good) is thriving again and the Braves will promote him soon.

Cockcroft: I lean toward “sell” on Manoah (and maybe that should be an upcoming column!). Hey, let me leave you with a fun fact on that Astros-Braves series: We’ll see the winning pitcher from both of the past two World Series clinchers on the mound this weekend with Framber Valdez on Saturday and Max Fried on Sunday — and Fried was better than expected Monday, so he’s definitely a go for this game. World Series preview, you say? We’ll certainly see.