How should you value the 49ers' pass-catchers?

There’s understandably a good amount of enthusiasm surrounding the San Francisco 49ers entering the 2023 season. This is a team that advanced to the NFC Championship Game last season and are a top-five pick to win Super Bowl LVIII at multiple sportsbooks.

Their defense is widely esteemed the best in the NFL, they have a two-time Pro Bowler at running back, a talented and deep slate of receivers and perhaps most importantly one of the game’s most highly respected coaches in Kyle Shanahan.

And yet, the 49ers’ quarterback situation continues to tower over their championship prospects as perhaps the primary hindrance to everyone going all-in.

To be fair, Brock Purdy was fantastic down the stretch last season after taking over for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13. Purdy won seven consecutive games (two in the playoffs) and converted threw multiple touchdown passes (starting in Week 13). Take that, said “Mr. Irrelevant.”

Normally, a rookie bursting upon the scene with that kind of impact and that amount of moxie in a playoff atmosphere, would elicit more confidence from football evaluators. But In Purdy’s case, it’s the way that his winning streak was snapped. His recovery from a torn UCL in his right elbow, suffered on a hit by Philadelphia Eagles pass-rusher Haason Reddick eight minutes into the NFC Championship Game, makes him questionable for the start of the 2023 season. He is progressing in his recovery, his March UCL surgery requires a six-month recovery timetable with no setbacks to be ready for Week 1 on Sept 10. Rust could become a concern as Purdy works back to full strength.

The only other current quarterback alternatives behind Purdy are Trey Lance, the 2021 No. 3 overall pick who has made only four NFL starts in two seasons due to multiple injuries, and Sam Darnold, the New York Jets‘ 2018 No. 3 overall pick, whose 78.2 career passer rating is 54th among 57 quarterbacks who have made at least 10 starts during that time span. It might not be common to have to turn to four different quarterbacks due to injury like the 49ers did last season, but when a team begins a year with this many injury questions, repeating that amount of turnover is possible.

Here’s what’s fascinating about all this: In terms of fantasy football, there doesn’t seem to be that much concern about how the 49ers’ uncertainty at quarterback might impact their receivers.

Christian McCaffrey is one of the best pass-catching running backs in NFL history with a league-leading 442 receptions since his 2017 debut. He is widely regarded the No. 1 or No. 2 player at his position. Deebo Samuel is firmly within the top 20 wide receivers for 2023, even in PPR formats, which is historically his weaker league scoring type. Samuel has gone 15th at the position on average in ESPN drafts. George Kittle is a top-five tight end and is going among the first 50 picks on average in ESPN leagues and Brandon Aiyuk, despite the presence of the previous three, is generally valued as a near-top-30 wide receiver (WR34). He has an ADP ranging between 32nd and 37th according to our analysts. These rankings are despite the fact the 49ers tied for the sixth-fewest passing attempts as a team (512) and had no quarterback place higher than 25th at the position in fantasy points. 49ers quarterbacks scored just 284.3 fantasy points combined in 2022, 14th among the 32 NFL teams.

This fuels the question of whether the fantasy football community is too optimistic about the statistical prospects of these four 49ers pass-catchers.

First off, McCaffrey derives a majority of his fantasy production from his legs and Shanahan’s teams have been notoriously run-oriented. San Francisco had a top-10 rushing offense in three of the past four seasons and attempted the sixth-most carries from non-quarterbacks last season (441). McCaffrey’s status near or at the top of RB draft boards is understandable when you consider that he’s in a run-friendly offense and brings some of the best receiving chops at his position. He should continue to be the centerpiece of this offense.

Optimism around Samuel, Kittle and Aiyuk’s fantasy value is more unexpected, though they did finish 37th (168.4), third (200.5) and 15th (227.8) in PPR fantasy points at their respective positions last season, with Samuel missing four games and Kittle missing two. That is right in range with their current 2023 valuations (albeit with Samuel and Aiyuk flipped) and if we narrow the scope further to McCaffrey’s 10 games with the 49ers, Kittle ranked second among tight ends with 143.5 PPR fantasy points, Aiyuk ranked 19th among wide receivers with 136.9 points, while Samuel ranked 32nd (11.3 fantasy points per game) among wide receivers who played at least the six games that he did over that span.

There’s plenty of production to warrant the investment, but what’s lost in those season totals is the level of consistency and prospective upside of each receiver.

There have been 29 instances of a team having multiple receivers (wide receiver or tight end) who averaged 12.5 points per game and finished the season with at least 200 PPR fantasy points since 2000. Among those teams, none had QBs that ranked among the top 10 in the league in fantasy points or amassed as many as 4,500 passing yards or 30 touchdowns. That was the case with the 49ers in 2022 and that might not seem like a minuscule number until you consider that 64% of teams fell within those qualifications, meaning it’s a somewhat challenging feat. The 49ers were the only team to do it last season and one of five to do it over the past six seasons.

Samuel did enjoy a breakthrough 2021 season scoring 338.96 fantasy points in an offense that met the above quarterback qualifications. However, he was the only receiver to meet both the 12.5 PPG and 200 PPR fantasy points threshold, further evidence that the 49ers offense can deliver elite-level fantasy production. Samuel also rushed for 365 yards and eight touchdowns in 2021, 24% of the team’s entire rushing fantasy point total. The 49ers’ creativity with Samuel’s alignments, coupled with his amazing strength and ability in the open field propel him up in the fantasy rankings. That is the reason you should draft Samuel at his ADP and not because he’s the best receiver on the roster.

From a consistency standpoint, both Samuel and Aiyuk were rated among the best wide receivers in football in 2022. They finished 28th (13.0) and 24th (13.4) respectively in points per game (minimum nine games played), while Kittle was one of the more inconsistent tight ends, with three games with 24-plus PPR fantasy points and three games with under five points.

Clearly, the 49ers like to spread the ball around in their offense and that reveals the shortcomings of each player’s fantasy potential. The odds that McCaffrey, Samuel, Kittle and Aiyuk all meet or exceed their fantasy potential relative to their draft position isn’t great, unless Purdy makes a seamless recovery. And there is also the possibility that Purdy struggles in his second year and the 49ers’ quarterback strategy falls flat.

Could at least three of 49ers’ pass-catchers turn out to be profitable picks this season? Certainly, but it is more likely that the best weeks to start them will be when one player can earn a larger target share due to the absence of one of the others rather than when all four are playing. Fantasy managers might need to accept the volatility between the big and quiet weeks of each.

Samuel was vocal this offseason about his inability to stay in peak physical shape last year while dealing with injuries and his desire to enter training camp healthier. We’ll soon see whether that turns out to be the case, but it’s a key element to watch as fantasy managers gauge his bounce-back potential. If Samuel is healthy, he is a more attractive pick and more appealing to start weekly if any of his teammates are absent. But if Samuel shows up to camp in barely better shape than 2022, Aiyuk could see his value increase instead.

All in all, you should appreciate the current rankings and ADPs of the 49ers’ pass-catchers for what they currently are but understand that drafting them at those positions means crafting your roster to account for the possible week-over-week fluctuation. That means that if you draft McCaffrey, you should probably also pick up Elijah Mitchell as insurance in case McCaffrey gets injured, add an extra wide receiver if you draft Samuel or Aiyuk; or take a flier on tight end with upside in the later rounds if you decide to draft Kittle.