2023 NFL betting: Loza's and Dopp's Week 15 props that pop
Over in the adjacent neighborhood known as Fantasy Land, folks are studying and streaming their way through the playoffs. If your fantasy squad did not make it to Week 15, however, then please join us for some props that pop.
Whether it’s rooting for unders on the players that cost you an fantasy football postseason or hitting big on overs via the stars that brought you the most regular season joy, props are a fun (and potentially lucrative) way to stay invested.
Let’s get after it!
QB Props
Joe Flacco OVER 0.5 interceptions (vs. Bears)
Liz: Some have ventured to call Flacco’s recent stint with the Browns, well, elite. Say what you will about the former Super Bowl champion, but he’s been productive over his last two efforts. The 38-year-old has managed low-end QB1 fantasy numbers in back-to-back games, passing for at least 250 yards and recording a pair of multi-TD efforts. Flaccos has also managed at least one INT in each of those outings. That’s a trend I don’t think ends in Week 15. On Sunday, he’ll face an improved Bears defense that has registered the most turnovers since Week 10 (9).
RB Props
Breece Hall OVER 76.5 total yards (at Dolphins)
Liz: Hall’s efficiency has certainly waned since his jaw-dropping 127 rushing yards on 10 carries in Week 1. After taking a note from his head coach, Hall bounced back with a solid 4.0 YPC average versus Houston in Week 14. Moreover, his total yardage has been buoyed by his work in the passing game. The 22-year-old ranks fifth at the position in target share (15.7%) and has caught between 5 and 8 balls over his last four games. He figures to be heavily utilized through the air again at Miami in Week 15. Not only are the Dolphins 9.5 point favorites but the team’s defense has also given up the most receiving yards to opposing RBs over the last four weeks. Hall only managed 24 receiving yards on his seven grabs versus Miami two weeks ago, but that was with (the now free agent) Tim Boyle under center.
WR Props
Courtland Sutton OVER 55.5 receiving yards (at Lions)
Daniel: Sutton’s volume leaves much to be desired, but his big play ability is unquestioned and we’re setup to see that in spades against the Lions. Sutton has hit this mark in 4 straight games, and the Lions are easily his best matchup over the last month. Over the last five games the Lions have surrendered this line to DJ Moore (twice), Chris Olave, Christian Watson and Keenan Allen. It’s not hard to see Sutton’s path to this line given the Lions inability to stop the opposing team’s top WR. It helps that the Lions run defense is as stout as it is, because it usually leads to the more passing volume. Not only am I take the OVER on 55.5 receiving yards, but this is a spot where I’d consider adding an ANYTIME TD as a separate parlay. Sutton has scored in 10 of his 13 games this season and the Lions have given up 8 touchdowns to WR’s since Week 10. Play both props and think kindly of me knowing I’m in misery because my Lions just gave up another TD to a WR.
Rashee Rice OVER 5.5 receptions (at Patriots)
Daniel: In spite of the Chiefs’ offensive struggles, we’ve been watching Rice breakout over the last three weeks. He’s had 30 targets (t-WR6), 23 receptions (WR3) and 243 receiving yards (WR12). I know this Patriots defense is tough against pass catchers, allowing the fewest points per game and 7th fewest passing yards per game, but Rice’s role has truly come alive recently. He’s seeing a 29.7% target share over the last three weeks, while Travis Kelce is only seeing a 20.8% target share. Rice has literally become the go-to-guy in this Chiefs offense and it’s the one thing they’re doing that isn’t broken. Even if they don’t give up a ton of yards, look for Mahomes to target Rice early and often.
Wan’Dale Robinson OVER 29.5 receiving yards (at Saints)
Liz: Robinson has led the Giants in looks since Tommy DeVito was named New York’s starter in Week 10. Devito was locked in on Robinson, who flashed his 4.4 speed and after the catch ability, converting six of seven balls for a season-high 79 yards, in the G-Men’s comeback effort over Green Bay last Monday night. As 5.5 underdogs, the Giants figure to be chasing points at New Orleans on Sunday. While the matchup is tough on paper, the Saints have been significantly softer versus the slot than the perimeter. Robinson has cleared the above line in two of his last three outings. I’ll take some momentum and the over in Week 15.
Jayden Reed OVER 4.5 receptions (vs. Buccaneers)
Daniel: Reed has been on fire recently, showcasing his talents as both a rusher and a receiver. We’re going to focus on the later of those, because Reed has seen 23 targets over the last three weeks. This week, he draws the Buccaneers who just let Drake London run wild for 172 yards on 10 receptions last week. Not only is Reed seeing more involvement recently, he’ll likely see even more targets this week with Christian Watson trending towards missing this one and AJ Dillon‘s broken finger. There are more than a few ways for Reed to make an impact in this game. I was originally looking for rushing+receiving yards, but they aren’t available as of this writing. Still, the Bucs are allowing the 10th most passing yards to WRs this year and Reed has proven himself in a major way recently and should continue to command a heavy role in this offense.
