Even without Adobe, things don’t look too bad for Figma

CB Insights estimates that Figma is still worth between $8.3 billion and $9 billion

A failed acquisition often spells doom for the target company. But despite its $20 billion takeover by Adobe not going through, there are reasons to think that Figma will be just fine.

That the online design company will get a $1 billion termination fee from Adobe will help soften the blow. But it is not the windfall some think it is; spending more than a year in regulatory limbo always takes a toll on a company and its team.

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While M&As can be long and taxing for both parties, breakup fees aren’t the norm. So, “no, startups, you’re not getting a breakup fee unless it’s a sizable enough deal where there is antitrust risk,” VC Ed Sim wrote on X. And in most cases, regulators are unlikely to get involved.

But in the Adobe-Figma deal, where both companies knew that this risk was front and center, even a $1 billion fee seems only fair compared to the uncertainty ahead.