Numbers to know: Winning trends and red flags in women's college basketball

Two months into the 2023-24 women’s college basketball season, we’re starting to see an emergence of trends and identities for individual teams and for the sport as a whole, all of which will further crystalize during conference play and eventually March Madness.

Numbers don’t reveal the full story of what’s happening on the court, but they can provide revealing snapshots of areas of focus, improvement and concern, as well as a sense of a group’s strengths and weaknesses.

Caitlin Clark‘s usage rate, for example, tells us something about her importance to Iowa. So too does the movement and unpredictability in the Associated Press poll this season, as does (even if it’s not a perfect measure at this point in the year) a team’s standing in a metric like the NET, which the Division I women’s basketball committee utilizes to evaluate teams for the NCAA tournament.

Some of these statistics are bound to fluctuate as teams proceed deeper into conference play. But as of now, here are some of the key, defining numbers to know from this women’s college basketball season.

Why it matters: Hannah Hidalgo has been a revelation for Notre Dame, but it’s difficult not to think about how dominant the Irish could be if she were playing alongside Miles and Citron. Miles is still recovering from a February 2023 knee injury, and Irish coach Niele Ivey has indicated it’s possible she doesn’t return this season. Citron, meanwhile, suffered a knee sprain three games into the 2023-24 campaign, and Notre Dame hasn’t shared a timetable for her return.

4: Teams with at least four wins over ranked opponents this season

Why it matters: Some teams have separated themselves by consistently going up against good competition, either via tough nonconference scheduling or within early league play. South Carolina, UCLA and Baylor are each 4-0 against ranked competition (and undefeated overall), while UConn has the most ranked wins of any team (five), but has also suffered three losses, all to current top-10 squads.

5: Victories Stanford‘s Tara VanDerveer needs to break Coach K’s all-time wins record

Why it matters: In the macro — VanDerveer will etch her name in history once more, passing Duke legend Mike Krzyzewski’s Division I all-time wins record (1,202) likely within a matter of weeks. In the micro — that the Cardinal would win 12 of their first 13 games to start 2023-24 following the graduation of Haley Jones and departure of three transfers wasn’t a given. For Stanford to establish itself as contender, as VanDerveer embarks on history in the process, is a testament once more to the coach’s decades-long legacy of consistent excellence.

6: Teams that are no longer in the AP top-10 after being ranked there in the preseason

Why it matters: One might say this is a sign voters/analysts whiffed on some projections, but it’s also a testament to the quality and dispersal of player talent, emergence of new coaches and how much overall parity there is in the game this year. In all, it’s made for a season full of excitement and intrigue.

7: Baylor players averaging at least 8 points per game

Why it matters: Baylor’s offense runs like a well-oiled machine and can hurt opponents in so many different ways, in part because of its scoring depth and options, including from the 3-point arc. As a result, third-year coach Nicki Collen has her Bears positioned as arguably the new favorites to win the Big 12.

7.1: South Carolina’s average number of 3-pointers made per game

Why it matters: It’s the highest such mark for the Gamecocks in Dawn Staley’s tenure (the next most is 5.8 made treys per game in 2018-19). South Carolina’s 3-point shooting this year, spurred by contributions from Te-Hina Paopao, Bree Hall, MiLaysia Fulwiley and Raven Johnson, has the Gamecocks looking even better offensively than they did last year, easing their transition to a post-Freshies era and ensuring their status as a national title contender.

8: The average margin of defeat in Ohio State‘s three losses

Why it matters: Expectations were high for the Buckeyes this season, but with three losses, including most recently to unranked Michigan, they’ve fallen to No. 20 in the latest AP poll. Their average margin for defeat is tied with Gonzaga for the slimmest of any team with multiple losses in the Top 25. Ohio State’s inconsistency within games remains an issue that will stunt its ceiling in the Big Ten and nationally no matter how sensational Jacy Sheldon can be.

37.2%: LSU‘s opponent average win percentage, in the bottom 5 percentile in the country

Why it matters: Last season’s Tigers squad showed that perhaps having a weak nonconference slate doesn’t actually matter that much, as it ran through the NCAA tournament to earn the program’s first national championship. This new-look LSU team at least faced Virginia Tech and Colorado in November, but still has a lot to prove come SEC play, especially as it continues to work Aneesah Morrow, Hailey Van Lith and its freshmen into the mix.

36.9%: Percentage of minutes played by UConn’s freshmen

Why it matters: The third-highest mark for the Huskies over the last 25 seasons, UConn has had to look to its freshmen even more than expected due to a slew of injuries that have sidelined Azzi Fudd, Caroline Ducharme and now Aubrey Griffin. The continued development of that class will be paramount to support the tandem of Paige Bueckers and Aaliyah Edwards if the Huskies want to make a deep March run.

34: Points NC State received in the preseason AP poll

Why it matters: Despite having only five returning players from last year’s team, the Wolfpack catapulted from unranked in the AP poll and picked to finish eighth in the ACC preseason standings to undefeated and a top-three ranking by December. Their emergence is arguably the biggest surprise of the season so far.

40.4%: Caitlin Clark’s usage rate for Iowa

Why it matters: Clark has always had the ball in her hands a ton, but it’s at a whole new level this season following the departures of Monika Czinano and McKenna Warnock. Clark’s usage is at an all-time high (previous: 37.1% her freshman year) and ranks second in the nation, further illustrated by her taking 22.3 shots per game. Her effective field goal percentage, most impressively, rests at a personal-best of 60%.

Why it matters: Speaking of usage rate, Watkins ranks No. 1 in the nation in the category, but unlike Clark, is shouldering the load for her team as a freshman. Her stellar play has made USC relevant on the national stage for the first time in decades, although for both Clark and Watkins, it’s worth monitoring how their respective supporting casts develop throughout conference play and come March.

51.8%: Texas‘ field goal percentage

Why it matters: We typically think of Vic Schaefer’s teams as defensive juggernauts. But this year’s squad leads the nation in field goal percentage and is further along offensively than defensively in some respects. Whether the stat holds with point guard Rori Harmon lost for the year remains to be seen, but the Longhorns’ offense will only get better whenever Taylor Jones, their leading scorer, can return from injury.

63.4%: UCLA’s rebounding rate

Why it matters: A lot of focus has been on the Bruins’ inside-out offense with guards Charisma Osborne and Kiki Rice joining forces with Lauren Betts, but one area where UCLA has been perhaps quietly dominant is its rebounding on both ends, with a rebounding rate ranking first in the nation. Betts’ 9.1 boards per game anchors that statistic, but Gabriela Jaquez, Angela Dugalic, Rice and Osborne also each average between 5.5 and 6.4 rebounds per game.

68.2%: Alissa Pili‘s field-goal percentage for Utah

Why it matters: Pili has catapulted herself into the national player of the year conversation, and has improved her stock as a WNBA prospect, not just for her scoring numbers this year but her efficiency. Her field goal percentage ranks third in the country, and her 51.9% shooting from 3 is fourth. She’s doing this on a Utah team that’s without its second and third top scorers, making her performance all the more impressive.

Why it matters: Because right now, the Lady Vols are nowhere near the NCAA tournament field in Bracketology due to their poor NET ranking and lackluster record (8-5, and its best win is by three over Oklahoma). That said, with Rickea Jackson back after an early-season injury, the Lady Vols still have time to boost their standing in the NET and work their way into the field if they have a strong showing in SEC play.

111.1: Colorado’s offensive rating

Why it matters: This number is likely to dip during the grind of Pac-12 play, but Colorado’s offensive rating ranks 20th in the country and would be the program’s highest through at least 2009-10, as far back as the Her Hoop Stats database goes (last year’s mark was 98.0 points scored per 100 possessions). The Buffs are typically known as a tough defensive team, but their continued offensive growth, spearheaded by the flourishment of its returning core of Aaronette Vonleh, Jaylyn Sherrod and Frida Formann, can only help Colorado reach new heights.

Stats were provided by ESPN Stats & Information and Her Hoop Stats.

What to watch this weekend

Oregon State at No. 9 USC
10 p.m. ET Friday, Pac-12 Network

The Beavers are one of six undefeated teams remaining in the country, but their nonconference slate was fairly underwhelming, facing just two teams in the Power 5/Big East in Texas Tech and Villanova. If the Beavers — led by Raegan Beers and her double-double averages of 19.6 PPG and 11.9 RPG — can hang with or even beat the one-loss Trojans, it would go a long way in showing Oregon State is worthy of increased national attention in an already stacked Pac-12.

No. 10 Texas at No. 24 West Virginia
2 p.m. ET Saturday, Big 12 Network/ESPN+

Another unbeaten team in West Virginia — now coached by Mark Kellogg, in his first year since coming over from Stephen F. Austin — has a chance to prove itself against a Texas squad that is still rolling, for the most part, after losing Rori Harmon to a season-ending ACL injury. The Mountaineers’ 13-0 start is tied for second-best in program history.

No. 3 NC State at No. 13 Virginia Tech
Noon ET Sunday, ACC Network

This top-15 matchup between the surprisingly undefeated Wolfpack and a Hokies team fresh off a Final Four run will tell us loads about the state of the ACC race. NC State already boasts wins over UConn and Colorado while Virginia Tech could use a resume-boosting dub.

Mississippi State at No. 1 South Carolina
1 p.m. ET Sunday, ESPN

The Bulldogs were ranked to begin the season before a month in falling to Miami and Chattanooga by a combined 12 points — Erynn Barnum and Jessika Carter were sidelined in both losses. But heading into their Columbia trip, they suffered a third defeat, a five-point upset at the hands of Vanderbilt on Thursday. To re-assert themselves as a rising SEC power, Mississippi State will look for a good showing against the top-ranked Gamecocks, who haven’t lost a regular-season conference game in over two years.

North Carolina at No. 16 Notre Dame
5 p.m. ET Sunday, ESPN2

This might as well be a ranked matchup, as North Carolina just narrowly dropped out of the AP poll following Syracuse‘s ascent with a win over Notre Dame. The Tar Heels were battle-tested in nonconference play against the likes of South Carolina, UConn and Kansas State but are still looking for a marquee win, while the Irish could also use a boost as they continue to navigate an injury-plagued season.