Let's preview Monday's NFL wild-card slate: Picks, predictions, X factors
The NFL wild-card games Saturday and Sunday have been fun, but there are still two more matchups Monday that will decide the divisional round schedule, in part due to the Steelers’ game at Buffalo having been delayed because of a snowstorm. We have you covered on Steelers-Bills and Eagles-Bucs with what you need to know, as our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys and bold predictions for both matchups.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for both games, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Analytics writer Seth Walder picks out the biggest X factors, Matt Bowen identifies key game-planning matchups to watch, and Kevin Seifert tells us what to know about the officiating. Finally, Walder and Eric Moody give us final score picks for both games.
Let’s get into Monday’s slate:
Monday, 4:30 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BUF -10 (38.5)
What to watch for: The roads that the Bills and Steelers took to this game contain an eerie number of similarities, from losing key players to injury for stretches to putting together season-ending winning streaks despite low playoff odds. Both teams also fired their offensive coordinators at midseason, becoming the first playoff teams to have an in-season coordinator change since the 2012 Ravens. The Steelers are looking for the team’s first playoff win since 2016, while the Bills are 13-2 in home playoff games since 1970. Limiting quarterback Josh Allen in the postseason will pose a challenge for Pittsburgh, as Allen is the only player in NFL playoff history to average 250 passing yards and 50 rushing yards per game (minimum five games) and has the highest combined average yardage (343.9). — Alaina Getzenberg
Bold prediction: Steelers running back Najee Harris will have his third consecutive game of at least 100 rushing yards. The Bills’ rushing defense is arguably the toughest the Steelers have faced in at least a month, allowing opponents an average of 103 rushing yards per game in their past three contests. But Harris is on a roll with back-to-back games of 100-plus rushing yards. With the temperature expected to be below freezing, wind gusts of 50 miles per hour and possible light snow, the Steelers will lean heavily on their ground game. Sharing the backfield with Jaylen Warren, Harris had just 255 touches in the regular season, his fewest in his three-year NFL career, making him as fresh as possible for the playoffs. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: The Steelers had nine wins in one-score games during the regular season, which led the NFL and are the most in a single season in franchise history.
Matchup X factor: Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins. With edge rusher T.J. Watt out, Alex Highsmith is even more crucial to the Steelers’ pass rush. If Dawkins — who has had a really nice season and ranked fourth in pass block win rate among tackles — can shut down Highsmith, that should set up Allen for a pretty smooth day. — Walder
Game-plan key: Pittsburgh has to run the ball well between the tackles. Harris and Warren finished the regular season hot, and Buffalo allowed 4.6 yards per carry on inside runs, 30th in the NFL. Read more at ESPN+. — Bowen
Officiating note: This game will benefit from one of the NFL’s most trusted referees. Carl Cheffers has been the Super Bowl referee in two of the past three years and three times in the past seven. His regular-season crew threw the third-fewest flags in the league (12.1 per game). — Seifert
Betting nugget: The Steelers were 10-7 ATS in the regular season, with unders going 11-6. The Bills were 7-10 ATS in the regular season, with unders going 11-6.
Moody’s pick: Bills 34, Steelers 20
Walder’s pick: Bills 30, Steelers 13
FPI prediction: BUF, 76.6% (by an average of 10.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: How Tomlin inspired the battered Steelers’ unlikely playoff push … Have the Bills shed their shaky late-game reputation? The playoffs will decide … Who’s to thank for Steelers’ playoff push? Start with guys claimed ‘off the couch’
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | Spread: PHI -3 (43.5)
What to watch for: This is a Week 3 rematch that Bucs inside linebacker Devin White so accurately predicted after the Bucs’ 25-11 home loss on “Monday Night Football.” But these teams have headed in opposite directions. The Bucs won five of their past six games, while the Eagles have lost five of their past six. The Bucs will also see a different-looking defense since senior assistant Matt Patricia took over in Week 15. Both quarterbacks are dealing with injuries, as Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield has not only a rib injury but also an ankle injury, and Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts suffered a finger injury on his throwing hand in Week 18. — Jenna Laine
Bold prediction: Bucs running back Rachaad White will eclipse 125 all-purpose yards. The last time these two teams met, the Eagles held Tampa Bay to 41 rushing yards. But the run defense has fallen off a cliff since then, yielding 142 yards per game on average over their past seven games. A banged-up Mayfield could lean on White in both the ground and short passing game. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: Hurts has struggled with ball security against the blitz, throwing five touchdown passes with eight interceptions. Those eight turnovers were the most by any quarterback when blitzed this season. This weekend, Hurts will face a Tampa Bay defense that blitzed at the third-highest rate during the regular season.
Matchup X factor: Hurts’ finger. He said Thursday that he hadn’t thrown a ball since injuring his finger in Week 18. If that injury hampers his ability to throw the ball on Monday night, then this is an entirely different ballgame. — Walder
Game-plan key: Can Philly get the running game going with D’Andre Swift? He ran for 130 yards against Tampa Bay back in Week 3, and feeding him in the running game could help the Eagles get into a rhythm. Read more at ESPN+. — Bowen
1:07
Can the Bucs deal the final blow to the Eagles’ season?
Baker Mayfield and the Bucs look to take down Jalen Hurts and the reeling Eagles in a wild-card edition of “Monday Night Football.”
Injuries: Eagles | Buccaneers
Officiating note: For all of the public discussion the Eagles endured over their offensive linemen lining up offside on tush push plays, the bigger story is that their offensive line was flagged an NFL-low eight times for offensive holding. The Buccaneers’ defensive front drew 22 such flags, tied for 16th-most. — Seifert
Betting nugget: The Eagles were 7-10 ATS in the regular season, with overs going 9-8. The Buccaneers were 11-6 ATS in the regular season, with unders going 11-6.
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 28, Eagles 21
Walder’s pick: Eagles 21, Buccaneers 16
FPI prediction: PHI, 57.3% (by an average of 2.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Is the Eagles’ pass rush as fearsome as it seems? … Buccaneers clinch third straight NFC South title with win … WR Brown ruled out (knee)
