Champ Week cheat sheet: The teams about to make the most noise in March Madness
-
Charlie Creme, ESPN.com
South Carolina controlled the No. 1 spot in the country from the second week of the season on, but the “everything else” this women’s college basketball season was a roller-coaster ride. The No. 2 spot changed hands eight times in the regular season. Multiple top-20 teams lost on a weekly basis.
The dust still hasn’t settled, setting up potentially one of the most exciting and meaningful Champ Weeks in a long time.
After the Gamecocks, the three remaining No. 1 seeds are still up for grabs. Stanford, Ohio State, UCLA, Iowa, Texas, USC and LSU are all candidates to stake a claim by winning their conference tournaments. The top-16 seeds — and the right to host first- and second-round NCAA tournament games — could go in any number of directions depending on what happens in the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12 tournaments.
A few mid-major leagues could have significant impact on the bubble, as will the SEC tournament. Each conference has its own must-know storylines, and these are the ones to play closest attention too, as well as the teams that might be on the court, as we draw closer to Selection Sunday and the NCAA tournament.
More coverage:
Bracketology | NCAA tournament schedule | Women’s Tournament Challenge
American Athletic Conference
Mean Green trying to finish the job: North Texas has already set a program record for wins in one of the best turnarounds in the country. That’s one season after winning just 11 games and finishing seventh in their final season in Conference USA. Now the goal is winning the AAC tournament and getting to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1986. To do it, the Mean Green will lean on the best frontcourt duo in the country. Senior Tommisha Lampkin leads the conference in field goal percentage and graduate DesiRay Kernal ranks in the AAC’s top 10 in scoring, rebounding and steals.
America East
Maine tries to complete the sweep at home: The last two times Maine went into the America East tournament as the No. 1 seed (2021 and 2022), the Black Bears came up short, losing championship games at home. After Saturday’s blowout win in Orono over the Albany Great Danes, Maine’s chief conference rival, the Black Bears earned the regular-season title and have another chance at hosting the tournament final as they try to return to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2019. Junior Adrianna Smith (2023 winner) and senior Anne Simon (2022 winner) are the front-runners for conference player of the year.
ACC
Here come the Irish: Things tend to shift quickly in the competitive ACC. The foremost question in the league just a week ago was whether Virginia Tech could be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Then they lost twice to finish the regular season and the notion disappeared. One of those losses was to Notre Dame — and the buzz is suddenly about their upward mobility. Hovering just outside the top 16 seeds for weeks, Notre Dame finally broke through with the win over the Hokies and losses by Oklahoma and Colorado. Then the Irish dominated Louisville in the regular-season finale and now seem capable of reaching as high as a No. 3 seed. The Irish have picked the right time to play their best basketball.
Atlantic Sun
Eagles keep soaring: Florida Gulf Coast once again has run away with the ASUN. Not one league opponent got within single digits of the Eagles and they won their 13th regular-season crown — by four games in the standings — in the last 14 years. Emani Jefferson, who ranks third in the conference in scoring, fifth in assists and first in field goal percentage, should also win the Eagles’ sixth consecutive conference player of the year award. The only question is: Should FGCU somehow slip up in the ASUN tournament, is a résumé really only highlighted with a win over North Carolina good enough to get an at-large bid?
Atlantic 10
Can the A-10 get two NCAA tournament bids? It was a talking point at the beginning of January and it remains the A-10’s biggest question at the end of the regular season. But the answer isn’t as promising now as it was two months ago. Some attrition among the top teams in the last week — George Mason beat Richmond, VCU beat George Mason and Saint Joseph’s, and Saint Joseph’s lost to Fordham — might have made the league race more exciting, but it hurt the résumés of the NCAA tournament contenders. Without a top-50 NET team in the A-10, the chances for multiple bids look small. Richmond’s at-large credentials are the best, so the best-case scenario to get multiple teams in the NCAA bracket would be the Spiders losing in the A-10 tournament title game. They could possibly squeak in as one of the last teams in, giving the A-10 two bids.
Big East
Fading Golden Eagles: Expect the Big East to get three teams into the NCAA tournament, but because of uneven play from Marquette throughout the conference schedule, that number isn’t as automatic as it was two months ago. The Golden Eagles averaged 81.4 points per game while running to an 11-0 start in the nonconference. The production plummeted to an average of 66.2 points in Big East games. An 11-7 conference mark — which included a pair of losses each to UConn, St. John’s and Villanova — means Marquette likely needs to deliver a win over the Wildcats in the Big East quarterfinals at Mohegan Sun to feel comfortable about receiving an NCAA tournament at-large bid.
Big Sky
Eastern Washington goes for first title since 2010: In the four seasons before the arrival of Jamie Loera, Eastern Washington won 27 total games. In her two seasons in Cheney after transferring from Arizona State, Eastern Washington has won 41 games. She has transformed the program. And it hasn’t come with huge numbers, although her 12.4 PPG and 5.3 APG in two years are solid. It’s come with leadership and basketball IQ. The Eagles won just the second conference title in their history (2010), and they’ll be in their first NCAA tournament since 1987 if they pull the Big Sky sweep.
Big South
One player, two teams, two titles: Lauren Bevis of High Point is a Big South regular-season champion for the second consecutive season. She just happens to have done it with two different teams. An All-Big South first-team selection a year ago for Gardner-Webb, Bevis will go down as one of the best shooters in league history. In her fifth college season, she led the Big South in scoring, 3-point percentage, 3-pointers per game and free throw percentage. After playing in the NCAA tournament with the Runnin’ Bulldogs, she’s trying to do the same with the Panthers, who won the conference by four games and are big favorites to make just the second tournament trip in program history.
4:07
Vic Schaefer and Madison Booker discuss Texas’ hot season
Kevin Connors talks with Texas coach Vic Schaefer and freshman Madison Booker about being a projected No. 2 seed in the women’s NCAA tournament.
Big 12
Booker makes the Longhorns go: When Rori Harmon — probably the best player in the Big 12 — went down with a knee injury in late December, it didn’t seem logical that the promise of Texas’ season could be realized. Madison Booker didn’t subscribe to such logic. The freshman moved from a small forward and complementary role to point guard and lead Longhorn. Texas lost just four games since. Booker has been that good. And it’s not just her 16.5 PPG and 4.9 APG. It is her willingness to lead, take the ball in crucial situations and take, and make, big shots. The Longhorns lost out on the Big 12 regular-season title by one game to Oklahoma, but they are still in position for a possible No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. A Big 12 tournament title might just do it.
Big Ten
No. 1 seed up for grabs: All eyes at the sold-out Big Ten tournament in Minneapolis will be on Caitlin Clark as she plays the final Big Ten games of her remarkable career, but now that she’s passed the scoring records of Kelsey Plum, Lynette Woodard and Pete Maravich, attention should turn to just how far these Iowa Hawkeyes can go. The first step will be maximizing their NCAA seed. Thanks to their convincing win over the Ohio State Buckeyes on Sunday, a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament is still in play. A third consecutive Big Ten tournament championship will be necessary to get there. That’s because Ohio State is also in position to hold a No. 1 seed and might be the team Iowa would have to leap to get to the top line in the NCAA bracket. Both the Hawkeyes and Buckeyes could be No. 1 seeds if they meet in the Big Ten finals and if Stanford and UCLA come up short in the Pac-12 and Texas has a poor showing in the Big 12.
Big West
Slow and steady wins the race? Despite not having a single scorer average more than 12 points per game, a team field goal percentage that ranks 254th in the country, and a negative rebounding margin, Hawaii is one game away from winning its second regular-season Big West championship, making the Rainbow Wahine the favorites to capture a third straight Big West tournament. The formula isn’t a simple one, but 12-year coach Laura Beeman seems to have perfected it: slow the pace, dig in on defense and get to the free throw line. Hawaii ranks 340th in pace of play. Among teams leading their leagues or with a chance to make the NCAA tournament, only Chattanooga and Saint Joseph’s play slower, but the Rainbow Wahine do lead the Big West in field goal percentage defense and rank ninth in the country in free throw rate.
Coastal Athletic Association
From newcomer to favorite: It took just one season after leaving the American East for Stony Brook to figure out the higher-rated and deeper CAA. With two games left, the Seawolves have wrapped up the conference championship. With a trio of scorers not often seen at the mid-major level, Stony Brook has upped its scoring average by nearly seven points per game over a year ago. Gigi Gonzalez, who has played in 125 games in a Seawolves uniform and leads the CAA in scoring, Khari Clark, an LMU transfer who has exploded with the Seawolves, and Sherese Pittman have taken Stony Brook’s offense to a new level.
Conference USA
Is Middle Tennessee beatable? The answer has been no to this point in conference play. Since an overtime win over Louisiana Tech on the opening day of CUSA play, Middle Tennessee hasn’t even been challenged. The Blue Raiders are the best offensive, defensive, shooting and passing team in CUSA — and in some instances, the margin is wide. Savannah Wheeler and Anastasiia Boldyreva are the two best players in the league — and an argument could be made that Ta’Mia Scott and Jalynn Gregory are Nos. 3 and 4. Middle Tennessee beat a Rickea Jackson-less Tennessee in early December, but because no other team in CUSA even tops 135 in the NET, the Blue Raiders haven’t played a résumé-worthy game since. That means that for as dominant as they have been in conference play, an at-large bid could still allude the Blue Raiders should they have one bad game on the wrong night in the conference tournament.
Horizon League
A two-bid league? Only once in its history has the Horizon League sent two teams to the same NCAA tournament. The conference could be in position to do it again if Green Bay, which earned that at-large bid in 2010, joins Cleveland State in the 2024 field. Should the Phoenix not win the Horizon League tournament — and they are the No. 2 seed behind the Vikings — they might have a case for an at-large bid again. November wins over top-25 NET teams Creighton and Washington State will put Green Bay in consideration. Still, last weekend’s loss at home to Milwaukee hurt the résumé — and cost the Phoenix a share of the regular-season championship. The best-case scenario for the league is Cleveland State beating Green Bay in the tournament title game. The two late-season losses might be too many for the committee to overcome, but no other bubble team has two top-25 NET wins like Green Bay.
Ivy League
Ivy Madness and March Madness go hand in hand: Princeton is a certain NCAA tournament team. Columbia is a borderline at-large possibility, a clear bubble team. That makes the results of Ivy Madness, the Ivy League’s four-team postseason tournament that isn’t played until the Saturday evening before Selection Sunday, among the most intriguing to all bubble teams. The Tigers and Lions split their regular-season meetings and will head to Ivy Madness as the top two seeds. If Princeton emerges as the champion for the fifth straight time, it’s probable the Ivy will get only one team into the NCAA tournament, keeping an at-large spot open to another team. If Columbia, behind Abbey Hsu, the program’s recently minted all-time leading scorer, wins a second game against the Tigers, the Ivy League is sending two teams to the NCAA tournament, likely forcing an SEC or Big Ten team to the wrong side of the bubble.
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Stags are off and running: Only South Carolina lost fewer games, and no team in the country will win its league by more than Fairfield. Carly Thibault-DuDonis — daughter of Mike Thibault, the all-time winningest coach in WNBA history, and sister of Eric Thibault, the current Washington Mystics coach — constructed the most successful season in Stags history in just her second season as a head coach. Landing Wantagh, New York, freshman Meghan Andersen might have been the key. The 6-foot-1 Anderson leads the MAAC in scoring (16.2 PPG) and 3-point accuracy (37.7%). Anderson’s pairing with senior Janelle Brown gives Thibault-DuDonis one of the most productive backcourts in the country.
Mid-American Conference
Lockett’s health holds the key: Teams that surprise and outperform expectations tend to make a better story. A good underdog is easy to root for. And sometimes the people that make predictions really do know what they are talking about. MAC coaches selected Toledo, Ball State and Kent State to finish 1-2-3 in the league standings in October. Four months later, they will be the top three seeds in the MAC tournament. The Rockets got off to a slow start and then had a setback with an injury to star guard Quinesha Lockett. Last year’s MAC player of the year missed five games, but the Rockets have lost just once since her return. This is the same core group of players who also won the MAC regular-season and tournament titles a year ago — and then upset Iowa State in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Diamond’s impact: With one game left in the regular season and the MEAC tournament still to come, 23-5 Norfolk State have a chance to break the record for most wins in program history since they moved to Division I for the 1997-98 season. That record is only a year old, but this team is better than the 2022-23 version that won 26 games. Call it the Diamond Johnson effect. The Spartans have lost just once since the former Rutgers and NC State point guard started suiting up for them 10 games into the season. Norfolk State’s scoring, assists and field goal percentage are all up over a year ago. Johnson is averaging 20.4 points per game, but her 17 games don’t qualify her for the MEAC leaderboard. The distinction of leading the conference goes to Spartan junior Kierra Wheeler, whose 17.6 PPG are an improvement by over six points a contest.
Missouri Valley Conference
Stability reigns at Drake: Allison Pohlman has been at Drake since 2007 as an assistant or associate head coach under two head coaches: Amy Stephens and Jenny Baranczyk. After Baranczyk’s successful nine-year tenure ended with her taking over at Oklahoma, Pohlman was given her chance to run the program. The success has remained. After a run to the MVC tournament title last March and a near upset of Louisville in the first round of the NCAA tournament, the Bulldogs elevated to a first-place finish in the conference behind their unselfishness and ability to share the ball. The Bulldogs, led by point guard Katie Dinnebier, are 10th in the country in assist rate. Dinnebier ranks third nationally in total assists and third in the MVC in scoring. A second straight trip to the NCAA tournament for Pohlman won’t come via an at-large bid. It will require another MVC tournament championship. But the last two seasons have proved the programs is still in good hands.
Mountain West
Hofschild in select company: Two players in the country average over 20 points and seven assists per game. Caitlin Clark is an easy guess for one of them. Colorado State fifth-year point guard McKenna Hofschild is the other. Desi-Rae Young of MWC champ UNLV might challenge Hofschild for player of the year because of the Lady Rebels’ dominance but keeping the 5-2 Hofschild and her staggering numbers from a second straight win seems unlikely. Hofschild is also sixth in the country in offensive win shares, ninth in offensive efficiency, is an 83.4% free throw shooter and makes nearly 40% of her 3-pointers.
Northeast Conference
Pryor might already be the NEC’s best ever: As a freshman, Ny’Ceara Pryor did everything a player could do, winning NEC player, freshman and defensive player of the year. That also included leading Sacred Heart to an NEC tournament title and the Pioneers’ first NCAA tournament win in the First Four over Southern. She’s even better this season. Her scoring (19.1 PPG), rebounding (7.3 RPG), assists (4.6 APG) and shooting percentage (46.2%) have all improved. She leads the NEC in scoring, assists, field goal percentage and steals. Most importantly, she has made Sacred Heart even better. The Pioneers have clinched at least a share of the regular-season crown, their first in eight years.
Ohio Valley Conference
Screaming Eagles soar to the top of OVC: Southern Indiana won’t be playing in the NCAA tournament but the program’s rise to success is one of the best mid-major stories of the season. The Screaming Eagles were a nine-win team in 2022-23, their first season after reclassifying to Division I. A year later they are 17-1 in OVC play and won the conference by six games. And that is with only two players — Vanessa Shafford (fifth in rebounding) and Ali Saunders (third in assists-turnover ratio) in the top 5 in every major statistical category. SIU won’t be eligible for the NCAA tournament until 2027 but will be the team everyone is chasing at the OVC tournament this weekend in Evansville. If the Screaming Eagles win it, the second-place team will claim the OVC’s automatic bid.
Pac-12
Best for last: Not only should this be the most intriguing conference tournament in the country this year, but with seven teams in the top 25 of the NET, it shapes up to be the best Pac-12 tournament ever. The storylines just for NCAA tournament seed jockeying make a long list. Stanford and UCLA are playing for No. 1 seeds but might need to each reach the championship game to ensure that happens. USC is also still in the mix for a No. 1 but would at least need to reach the finals and get help elsewhere. Colorado‘s probable meeting with Oregon State in the quarterfinals — yes, that’s just a potential quarterfinal matchup — will likely determine the Buffs’ chances to land in the top 16 and host first- and second-round NCAA tournament games. Washington State showed signs of life by winning at Colorado on Saturday that the Cougars hadn’t shown since the season-ending injury to Charlisse Leger-Walker. That keeps them alive for an at-large berth. An upset of Stanford in the quarterfinals would do the trick.
Patriot League
Weimar tries to lift BU: Heading into the final day of the regular season, the Patriot League had six teams within a game of each other atop the standings. No conference tournament in the country stands to be so wide open. What isn’t wide open is the player of the year race. Boston University senior Caitlin Weimar has dominated from the first day of league play and hasn’t relented. She leads the Patriot in four statistical categories: scoring, rebounding, field goal percentage and blocks. She is also likely to win her third defensive player of the year honor. Navigating the tournament and getting the Terriers to just their second NCAA tournament would be Weimar’s finishing note to one of the Patriot League’s best all-time seasons.
SEC
SEC takeover of the bubble: South Carolina finished a second consecutive regular season unbeaten. LSU is the defending national champs and the Tigers might be piecing together another run. Ole Miss is playing its most consistent basketball of the season. But the story in the SEC, particularly the early days of the conference tournament, is all the teams on or around the bubble. Texas A&M and Mississippi State combined to go 2-10 in the final two-plus weeks of the season. Vanderbilt fared better but still lost all of its key games in February. They all need at least one win in Greenville, and with the Aggies and Bulldogs playing each other on Day 2, that won’t be possible. The SEC could still get nine teams into the NCAA tournament if things break its way around the rest of the country. But that number could fall to six just as easily. That’s life with so many teams on the bubble.
Southern Conference
Rose blossoms for Wofford: While Chattanooga has dominated the SoCon, winning it by five games in the regular season, no player dominated the conference statistically like Rachael Rose of Wofford. The 5-7 junior led the league in scoring (22.1 PPG), rebounding (8.6 RPG), assists (5.6 APG), steals (2.1 SPG), free throw percentage (87.5%) and minutes (35.7 MPG). While her numbers aren’t quite as eye-popping as Caitlin Clark’s, and the Terriers are only 16-12, Rose is statistically the Clark of the SoCon. She scores 33% of Wofford’s points (Clark scores 34% of Iowa’s), and with Rose’s shooting and passing, she accounts for 55% of the Terriers’ field goals. (Clark’s number is 58% for the Hawkeyes.)
Southland
Quick-star Cards: With the inside-outside combo of Akasha Davis and Sabria Dean, Lamar has captured its first regular-season conference championship since 2019. The Cardinals also haven’t made the NCAA tournament since 2010. As sizeable favorites to win the conference tournament, that streak might end. Davis, second in the conference in scoring and rebounding and first in field goal percentage, should also be the favorite to take home player of the year, one season after being a first-time all-SLC selection and two seasons after being the league’s freshman of the year.
Summit League
Jackrabbits need to deliver: South Dakota State have had another dominant season in the Summit. The Jackrabbits allowed just 59.1 points per game in conference play and became the first team in Summit League history to go unbeaten in conference play in consecutive seasons. Unlike the last two years, however, South Dakota State’s NCAA tournament fate will strictly come down to winning the conference tournament. An at-large bid seems unlikely with just a 6-5 nonconference record and no signature wins. Sophomore Brooklyn Meyer (18.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 64.8 FG% in league play) has put together a player-of-the-year caliber season, and had a double-double against South Carolina. With only two of their Summit League games decided by single digits, the Jackrabbits will be heavy favorites, but a fifth trip in the last six NCAA tournaments will come down to three games in Sioux Falls.
Sun Belt
Thundering Herd revival: Kim Caldwell likely won’t receive a single vote for national coach of the year, but she has done one of the finest jobs in the country. In her first season in Huntington after seven success seasons at Division II Glenville State in West Virginia, Caldwell converted Marshall to an up-tempo, pressing style that has paid huge dividends. The Thundering Herd went from 15 to 23 wins, the first 20-win season for the program since 1990-91, and the first conference regular-season championship since 1989. The fast pace employed by Caldwell helped turn point guard Abby Beeman into the Sun Belt player of the year. Her 6.2 assists per game were good for 10th nationally. Marshall ranks fifth in the country with 85.4 points per game and third with 13.3 steals per game. And this came after last year’s leading scorer, Roshala Scott, left the team after six games (since transferred to James Madison).
Southwestern Athletic Conference
Lady Tigers as potential giant slayers: Looking for a potential big upset in the first round of the NCAA tournament? Jackson State might be a surprising choice. The Lady Tigers have dominated the SWAC again (just two conference losses in four seasons), they have unusual size for a non-power league (six players in the rotation 6 feet or taller) and have experience playing against the nation’s best teams. Jackson State’s nonconference schedule included Kansas State, Oregon State, Mississippi State, Miami and Texas. While all five were losses, the Tigers were competitive against the Bulldogs and Hurricanes and beat St. John’s. Leading scorers Miya Crump and T’lan Boler were also on the team in 2022 that nearly upset LSU in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
Western Athletic Conference
One player, two rivals: Last season, Trinity San Antonio led California Baptist in scoring. This season she’s the top scorer at Grand Canyon. They just so happen to be the two best teams in the WAC. Such are the ways of college basketball in the world of the transfer portal. San Antonio’s arrival helped take the Lopes to the next level. After finishing fourth a year ago, Grand Canyon (the league’s stingiest defense) is battling the Lancers (the WAC’s top-scoring offense) for the regular-season crown, which will likely be decided when the two face off in the regular-season finale on Saturday.
West Coast Conference
Will Spokane host NCAA tournament games? Not since Delaware with Elena Della Donne in 2012 has a team outside of the Power 6 conferences been a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament. Gonzaga is in position to break the streak. The Zags were No. 15 in the final top-16 reveal by the NCAA tournament selection committee. If Gonzaga dominates the WCC tournament like it did the regular season — winning all 16 games by an average of 30.7 points per game — the Bulldogs will be hosting first- and second-round NCAA tournament games. With rules different in 2012 and the early-round sites predetermined, that Delaware team didn’t get to host games. Xavier was the last team from a nonmajor conference to host, in 2010. The Musketeers, a No. 3 seed, reached the Elite Eight that season.
