Power Rankings: A new No. 1, plus an early look at offseason decisions
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Kristen Shilton, ESPN NHL reporter
Another week closer to the end of the regular season — and start of the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs — and we have another new team sitting atop the throne of the NHL Power Rankings.
But in addition to a new order to our list, this week we took a break from the playoff (and draft lottery) race to look at a critical offseason decision that each club will have to make, whether it’s pending free agents, a coach (or GM) hire or a possible trade.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday, which generates our master list here.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published March 22. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 69.86%
This offseason will include (another) decision to make on pending RFA Kaapo Kakko. The 23-year-old’s expiring two-year deal had a “prove it” undertone for leverage leading into another negotiation. What GM Chris Drury comes to the table with should indicate how highly the Rangers value Kakko into the future.
Next seven days: @ ARI (March 30), vs. PIT (Apr. 1), vs. NJ (Apr. 3)
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 68.24%
Who’s going to round out the bottom two defensive pairs? Jani Hakanpaa and Chris Tanev are both free agents; Nils Lundkvist and Thomas Harley are up-and-coming RFAs. The Stars have had their issues getting it right on the blue line. Targeting the right personnel there moving forward is crucial.
Next seven days: @ SEA (March 30), vs. EDM (Apr. 3)
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 66.89%
Boston is already talking an extension with pending RFA Jeremy Swayman — and his deal will have a ripple effect on Linus Ullmark‘s future. Swayman already went through one fraught negotiation with Boston last summer; will this year’s conversation be smoother? And can GM Don Sweeney work out a long-term pact to appease all parties?
Next seven days: @ WSH (March 30), @ NSH (Apr. 2), @ CAR (Apr. 4)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 67.12%
Colorado has a fascinating incoming contract negotiation with pending RFA Casey Mittelstadt. Buffalo swapped Mittelstadt (for defenseman Bowen Byram) in part because of the forward’s expiring deal — and the team’s projected inability to match his needs. Can Colorado find a satisfactory middle ground with the rising star this summer?
Next seven days: vs. NSH (March 30), @ CBJ (Apr. 1), @ MIN (Apr. 4)
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 66.44%
Sam Reinhart takes priority among Florida’s pending free agents. The first-time 50-goal scorer’s career year has not only propelled the Panthers to greater heights this season but exemplified his worth well into the future. This summer will reveal how much is Florida willing — or able — to pay for Reinhart’s continued service.
Next seven days: vs. DET (March 30), @ TOR (Apr. 1), @ MTL (Apr. 2), @ OTT (Apr. 4)
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 67.12%
Vancouver will be reengineering its blue line in the summer — one way or another. The Canucks have Quinn Hughes and Carson Soucy signed long term on the back end, and can either keep familiar faces or go in search of reinforcements elsewhere. Given how well this season has gone, though, Vancouver might not want to wander far from what has worked.
Next seven days: vs. ANA (March 31), @ VGK (Apr. 2), @ ARI (Apr. 3)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 66.89%
Carolina must address its defense sooner than later. The Hurricanes have three NHL regulars signed through just one more season; the rest are all UFAs in July. One of Carolina’s perennial strengths is its back end, and it’ll be a priority for GM Don Waddell to maintain that status quo — through internal or external moves.
Next seven days: @ MTL (March 30), vs. BOS (Apr. 4)
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 64.79%
Edmonton could have a markedly different forward group after this summer. There’s a handful of upcoming UFAs, with the looming prospect of inking Leon Draisaitl‘s extension in a year’s time, too. Holland must be cognizant of a potential framework for Draisaitl’s deal as he handles the Oilers’ business this summer.
Next seven days: vs. ANA (March 30), @ STL (Apr. 1), @ DAL (Apr. 3)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 64.38%
Could there be another coaching conundrum this offseason? There’s a third-year option for Rick Bowness that the Jets can choose to exercise before July 1. Bowness has undoubtedly done well this season, but he also has faced health challenges that could factor into a mutual decision about whether he stays for another year.
Next seven days: vs. OTT (March 30), vs. LA (Apr. 1), vs. CGY (Apr. 4)
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 63.19%
Toronto has two equally pressing priorities: defense and goaltending. Joseph Woll is its only netminder under contract for next season as starter Ilya Samsonov is set to hit free agency. Then there’s the back end that never benefited from signing John Klingberg (a UFA) and could see multiple veterans walk away in the offseason. The Leafs have work to do filling those holes.
Next seven days: @ BUF (March 30), vs. FLA (Apr. 1), vs. TB (Apr. 3)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 61.64%
The Preds’ “deadline addition” on defense was keeping Alexandre Carrier. He’s a pending UFA though, as is Tyson Barrie, leaving the Predators with gaps to fill on the blue line. Nashville’s back end has a few aging vets on big deals; will GM Barry Trotz target an infusion of youth to help them out?
Next seven days: @ COL (March 30), vs. BOS (Apr. 2), vs. STL (Apr. 4)
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 60.42%
Tampa Bay has a delicate contract situation percolating with captain Steven Stamkos. The Lightning’s leader is a pending UFA, and the team has ongoing salary cap constraints. Will the 34-year-old take a hometown discount to stay in the fold? And would even that concession be enough for Tampa to get a solid deal done, especially with several other key players hitting free agency in due time?
Next seven days: vs. NYI (March 30), vs. DET (Apr. 1), @ TOR (Apr. 3), @ MTL (Apr. 4)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 60.42%
Los Angeles does not have a goalie under contract for next season. So, fixing that is priority one this summer. The Kings’ other task is assessing whether to keep interim coach Jim Hiller behind the bench, or launch a larger search for his replacement.
Next seven days: @ CGY (March 30), @ WPG (Apr. 1), vs. SEA (Apr. 3), @ SJ (Apr. 4)
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 60.27%
Vegas is staring down some hard decisions — namely, whom to re-sign among pending UFAs like Chandler Stephenson, Jonathan Marchessault, Alec Martinez and more. The Golden Knights are (in)famous for getting creative with the salary cap, but the logjam of contracts coming up at once will put them to the test.
Next seven days: @ MIN (March 30), vs. VAN (Apr. 2)
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 55.41%
The Flyers can expand on their surprisingly successful 2023-24 by bolstering their goaltending in the summer. Samuel Ersson would benefit from a capable veteran backup for the present, and Philadelphia should also be looking to stabilize that position for the long term (with a key draft prospect, perhaps?).
Next seven days: vs. CHI (March 30), vs. NYI (Apr. 1)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 56.25%
The major questions are in goal for the Caps. There’s veteran Darcy Kuemper signed at $5.25 million per season through 2026-27, and Charlie Lindgren inked through next season at $1.1 million. Should the Capitals attempt to move one of them in the offseason? Kuemper has a no-trade clause that could complicate matters, but it’s likely GM Brian MacLellan will explore the market to see what interest is out there — and identify a favorable return for the Capitals.
Next seven days: vs. BOS (March 30), @ BUF (Apr. 2), vs. PIT (Apr. 4)
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 54.11%
GM Steve Yzerman believes in the Red Wings’ prospect pool. Now it’s time to see why. This offseason should be about identifying who’s ready to make the jump — and parting ways with players in the lineup (or pending free agents) taking up space Yzerman thinks should be going to the next wave of Red Wings.
Next seven days: @ FLA (March 30), @ TB (Apr. 1)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 54.86%
Minnesota was buried under defensive injuries this season, which could inspire GM Bill Guerin to recalibrate the team’s back end. That would go hand in hand with addressing the Wild’s goaltending. Marc-Andre Fleury is a pending UFA who, at age 39, will be contemplating retirement. Who replaces Fleury alongside Filip Gustavsson?
Next seven days: vs. VGK (March 30), vs. OTT (Apr. 2), vs. COL (Apr. 4)
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 56.16%
St. Louis has the interim tag on head coach Drew Bannister. That leaves the Blues with options going into the offseason. Does a strong finish mean the Blues retain Bannister behind the bench? Or do they wait to see who else might become available around the league before handing out the long-term gig?
Next seven days: vs. SJ (March 30), vs. EDM (Apr. 1), @ NSH (Apr. 4)
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 52.06%
New Jersey needs a stable starting goaltender. The Devils got their stopgap grabbing Jake Allen and Kaapo Kahkonen at the deadline, but that tandem is hardly a long-term solution, especially with Kahkonen hitting free agency. New Jersey is fortunate to have a core of high-level young talent, and it would be tragic to waste any of their years searching for consistent goaltending.
Next seven days: @ BUF (March 29), vs. PIT (Apr. 2), @ NYR (Apr. 3)
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 53.47%
If the Islanders miss the playoffs, it’s on GM Lou Lamoriello to identify — and fix — what went wrong down the stretch. New York notably stood pat at the deadline and its old problem of not scoring goals has resurfaced. It’s a familiar refrain the Islanders can’t afford to repeat again next season.
Next seven days: @ TB (March 30), @ PHI (Apr. 1), vs. CHI (Apr. 2), @ CBJ (Apr. 4)
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 50.00%
Buffalo didn’t get a third-line center at the deadline. And the Sabres need one — badly. Filling that slot and going into next season with stronger depth down the middle should keep GM Kevyn Adams plenty busy in another achingly long offseason for the Sabres.
Next seven days: vs. NJ (March 29), vs. TOR (March 30), vs. WSH (Apr. 2)
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 51.39%
Are the Penguins on the precipice of monumental change? Does this disastrous season force GM Kyle Dubas to dismantle the Penguins’ aging core? Is it the end of the road for head coach Mike Sullivan? How can Pittsburgh get younger and faster, with or without a full-on rebuild? It’s unfathomable (right?) that Pittsburgh heads into next season without a notable shift in direction.
Next seven days: @ CBJ (March 30), @ NYR (Apr. 1), @ NJ (Apr. 2), @ WSH (Apr. 4)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 49.31%
Calgary let things linger with Jacob Markstrom to the point he wasn’t traded at the deadline and was not happy about it. That puts the Flames in an interesting spot. Granted, Markstrom has two years left on his deal, but Calgary can (and likely should) revisit moving him this summer — perhaps within the context of a wider roster overhaul to put the Flames back in future playoff contention.
Next seven days: vs. LA (March 30), vs. ANA (Apr. 2), @ WPG (Apr. 4)
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 50.69%
New contracts for RFAs Matty Beniers and Eeli Tolvanen are the top priority. Getting those over the finish line satisfactorily is imperative for the Kraken’s present and future. After not doing much at the deadline — and seeing their postseason chances dwindle — it would behoove GM Ron Francis to be active in the summer to set Seattle up for better success.
Next seven days: vs. DAL (March 30), @ SJ (Apr. 1), @ LA (Apr. 3)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 45.89%
Arizona will need a defenseman (or six) under contract before next season to actually put a lineup together. Currently the Coyotes have a slew of pending free agents on the back end, and pondering the possibilities — inside and outside the organization — will occupy GM Bill Armstrong well past the spring. Oh, and finding a new place to play in the long term is up there on the priority list, too.
Next seven days: vs. NYR (March 30), vs. VAN (Apr. 3)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 47.22%
There were some good moments this season, but Montreal is veering toward “identity crisis.” This offseason could be where it steers out of the skid. The Canadiens have a core of players approaching their prime years and they’ll need the right support to reach the next tier of competitiveness. GM Kent Hughes must be strategic this summer in how he helps advance the Canadiens — and avoids holding them in a rebuild for too much longer.
Next seven days: vs. CAR (March 30), vs. FLA (Apr. 2), vs. TB (Apr. 4)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 47.22%
Ottawa needs its next solution behind the bench. We’re talking long-term, here-to-stay, taking-us-back-to-the-playoffs coach. The Senators retooled the entire front office, and it’ll be on those executives to pick the right person to guide Ottawa out of the (ideally) final phase of this prolonged downturn.
Next seven days: @ WPG (March 30), @ MIN (Apr. 2), vs. FLA (Apr. 4)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 39.73%
Half of Columbus’ roster needs new contracts, and that includes most of the young core. Prioritizing those extensions should be atop the Blue Jackets’ offseason to-do list. Butt who will do the wheeling and dealing? Columbus needs a new general manager (John Davidson has been the interim there since Jarmo Kekalainen’s firing), and installing that person first before making too many future decisions would be smart business.
Next seven days: vs. PIT (March 30), vs. COL (Apr. 1), vs. NYI (Apr. 4)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 35.62%
Anaheim has a long summer ahead to explore moving Trevor Zegras. The Ducks are deep into a rebuilding phase and Zegras’ best value might lie in what Anaheim could land in a trade that sets it up with players for the future — and allows Zegras to join a roster closer to win-now mode.
Next seven days: @ EDM (March 30), @ VAN (March 31), @ CGY (Apr. 2)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 32.19%
There’s a handful of RFAs to look at this offseason, and GM Kyle Davidson will certainly get to that. But the bigger task for the Blackhawks might just be to stay patient and continue focusing on building their culture. It’s easier said than done, particularly with talent like Connor Bedard in your midst — yet slow and steady should remain the approach.
Next seven days: @ PHI (March 30), @ NYI (Apr. 2)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 27.78%
It’s all about the draft lottery results. Because where the Sharks pick in this upcoming draft — and signing whom they select — will be their most important offseason decision. After that, GM Mike Grier can reel through a landslide of pending UFAs and figure out whom he wants to keep beyond this season, knowing only a small group of regulars are signed beyond 2024-25.
Next seven days: @ STL (March 30), vs. SEA (Apr. 1), vs. LA (Apr. 4)
