Underdog Doncic attracting most MVP bets
Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg, Ian Parker and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
Key links: Sports betting home | NBA odds page | NHL odds page
June 6: Doncic attracting most Finals MVP bets ahead of Game 1
Dallas Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic attracted more bets to win NBA Finals MVP than the Boston Celtics‘ Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined as of Thursday morning at ESPN BET.
Tatum was a -120 favorite for Finals MVP at ESPN BET, ahead of Thursday’s Game 1 in Boston, but the betting public was all over Doncic at +200. More bets had been placed — and more money risked — on Doncic than any other player at multiple sportsbooks.
Brown was +650, followed by the Mavericks’ Kyrie Irving at +1,400. Irving also had attracted more bets than either Brown or Tatum at ESPN BET.
“Tatum’s obviously taken some bets, but it’s such a short price that it’s not super enticing,” sports trader David Lieberman, who oversees NBA odds for Caesars Sportsbook, said. “If you think the Mavericks are going to win the series, Luka’s MVP price may look a little better than the series price.”
While the bulk of the MVP bets are on Doncic, Irving, Tatum and Brown, one of the largest reported MVP bets was on Celtics’ center Kristaps Porzingis, who is expected to return to the Boston lineup for the first time since suffering a strained calf on April 29. A bettor in Indiana placed a $3,500 wager on Porzingis to win MVP at 35-1 with Caesars Sportsbook. The bet would win a net $122,500, but long-shot MVP winners have been rare.
Entering the Finals, the player with the shortest MVP odds from the eventual winning team has won the award in eight consecutive years, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
June 4: 3-leg parlay needs Oilers Stanley Cup to win $584K
A three-leg parlay shared by @BR_Betting with 584-1 odds is down to its final leg — the Edmonton Oilers to win the Stanley Cup.
The bet was placed in January, ahead of the NFL Wild Card weekend, by a BetMGM customer in Colorado, according to a sportsbook spokesperson. The customer used a $1,000 bonus bet — a promotional credit BetMGM gives to new customers — to make the parlay that featured:
The Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers to win the Super Bowl in February and Real Madrid defeated Borussia Dortmund last Saturday in the Champions League final, leaving only the Oilers to complete the parlay and putting the bettor in position to hedge the wager, if they choose to.
Edmonton is listed at +110 to win the Stanley Cup Final at ESPN BET.
June 3: Sportsbooks win big on Islam Makhachev’s UFC win
David Purdum: The Islam Makhachev–Dustin Poirier lightweight title bout Saturday during UFC 302 turned into a big decision for sportsbooks, after money poured in late on the underdog.
Makhachev opened around a -440 favorite and peaked at -700 at some sportsbooks in the weeks leading up to the fight. Andrew Babakitis, risk manager for the SuperBook in Las Vegas, said parlay liability built up on Makhachev early, driving the price up. But Saturday was a different story, with big bets from respected customers showing up on Poirier in the hours leading up to the fight, causing the price to move toward the veteran underdog. Poirier went from around +450 to +320 Saturday at the SuperBook.
“We had multiple five-figure bets [on Poirier] late Saturday, a lot of sharp money,” Babakitis, who oversees MMA odds for the SuperBook, told ESPN.
Other sportsbooks also reported needing Makhachev to win to avoid a significant loss. A spokesperson for BetMGM posted on X Saturday that a Poirier win would be “one of our biggest losses in combat sport history.”
Makhachev submitted Poirier in the fifth round to retain his lightweight title.
May 29: LSU opens as big favorite over USC for CFB Week 1
David Purdum: We haven’t reached June yet, but the countdown to college football season has begun, as point spreads on an intriguing Week 1 have hit the board at sportsbooks.
Here is a quick look at the opening lines for three big games via ESPN BET:
LSU (-7, 66.5) vs. USC
Sept. 1, 7:30 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
The Tigers opened as 7-point favorites over USC in a tasty opener on Labor Day in Las Vegas. Both teams are replacing Heisman-winning quarterbacks. The Trojans have been more than a touchdown underdog in season openers only twice since 1978. They were 12-point underdogs to Alabama in a 52-6 loss to the Crimson Tide in 2016 and 11-point underdogs to Florida State in a 14-7 loss in 1997.
Clemson vs. Georgia (-13, 48.5)
Aug. 31, 12 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
The Bulldogs opened as 13-point favorites against Clemson. The Tigers haven’t been this big of an underdog since 2012, when they were 14.5-point underdogs to Florida State, eventually losing 49-37.
Miami (-3.5) vs. Florida
Aug. 31, 3:30 p.m. ET, Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville
The Hurricanes opened as 3.5-point favorites over the Gators. The Gators have never been that large of a home underdog in the Swamp in a season opener in the FBS era (1978), according to ESPN Stats & Information.
May 28: The top five betting favorites to win the MCWS hail from the SEC
Odds by ESPN BET.
Purdum: Texas A&M was the favorite to win the College World Series at 9-2 on Tuesday at ESPN BET, followed by Tennessee (11-2) and Arkansas (17-2). Kentucky and LSU were each 9-1 and rounded out the teams with single-digit odds.
LSU, the defending champions, were considered on the bubble to even make the field two weeks ago and must travel to the Chapel Hill, North Carolina, region.
The ACC also is represented atop the title odds, with Clemson at 11-1, followed by Wake Forest (13-1) and North Carolina (15-1).
The regional round begins Friday. The host schools are favored in 12 of the 16 regionals, with Wake Forest (-125), Duke (even), South Carolina (+105) and Dallas Baptist (+140) road favorites in their respective regions.
May 27: Breaking down the betting impact of Acuña’s season-ending injury
Greenberg: For the second time since 2021, Atlanta Braves superstar Ronald Acuna Jr.’s season is over prematurely due to an ACL tear, though this time it’s in his other knee. While time will tell whether the Braves’ impressive depth can withstand the loss, the betting markets are already responding to the news. ESPN BET reports that since the news of Acuña’s injury was confirmed, Atlanta moved from +475 to +650 to win the World Series — currently fourth behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (+275), New York Yankees (+500) and Philadelphia Phillies (+500).
There were even bigger drop-offs at other sportsbooks, with the Braves falling from +400 to +650 at DraftKings, and from +475 to +800 at BetMGM. Atlanta was seeing solid action to win MLB’s championship, attracting 7.8% of the bets and 9.8% of the money at ESPN BET, as well as 8.0% of the tickets and 14.1% of the handle at BetMGM — the second-most money at the book behind only Los Angeles (14.9%). At DraftKings, the Braves actually have a negative betting split, taking 8% of the bets with 6% of the handle.
Atlanta’s odds to win the National League pennant similarly lengthened on the news, as they now range from +340 to +400 behind Los Angeles and Philadelphia. Where things really start to get interesting is in the race for the division.
The Braves opened the season as the clear favorites to win the NL East (-275), but between Acuña’s injury and an impressive first two months from the Phillies, Atlanta now finds itself as a +145 underdog to win the division crown, while Philadelphia has taken the odds-on lead at -200, per ESPN BET, who made the Phillies favorites even before the injury. At DraftKings, the Acuña news flipped the division line from Braves -130 to +125, and Phillies +120 to -165.
The difference in movement here is likely a result of liability: ESPN BET has 70.0% of its tickets and 71.1% of its money on Philadelphia, whereas DraftKings has 80% of bets and 68% of handle on Atlanta.
All of this said, bettors looking for a buy-low spot should pay attention to this factoid: The last time Acuña tore his ACL in 2021, the Braves went on to win the World Series.
