Euro 2024 final preview: Spain vs. England, key players, predictions, tactics

BERLIN — After a long month of continental competition stretching from one end of Germany to the other, Euro 2024 is set to conclude Sunday in Berlin, where Spain will take on England at the Olympiastadion.

The paths these two teams have taken to the German capital are starkly different. Spain have been the darlings of the tournament, the only heavyweights to consistently turn in eye-catching performances that convey a coherence and clearly defined identity. England, meanwhile, have largely looked like less than the sum of their parts, but their collection of stars have managed to dig deep and grind out the results required to reach a second consecutive European Championship final.

Who will emerge victorious Sunday? How will the match unfold? ESPN asked the two writers who’ve followed these teams most closely throughout Euro 2024: James Olley and Sam Marsden.

Why could England win?

England produced their best performance of the tournament by some distance in the semifinals. There is a sense of momentum behind them right now and a surging belief that comes from pulling out results late on. Jude Bellingham‘s 95th-minute equaliser against Slovakia, the penalty shootout win over Switzerland and Ollie Watkins‘ 90th-minute winner against Netherlands have created a feeling England could somehow be destined to lift their first major trophy in 58 years.

There were signs against the Dutch that England’s individual attacking talents were starting to develop an understanding and some of the combinations between Kobbie Mainoo, Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka in particular were exciting. Jordan Pickford is having another tournament in which he takes his game to another level, while Marc Guéhi has been a major find at centre-back. Luke Shaw‘s likely return in time for his first start of the tournament will give better balance to the team given he is a natural left-footer as opposed to Kieran Trippier, who has been filling in at left-back or left wing-back. After all the chaos of the early rounds, manager Gareth Southgate has seemingly found a degree of stability in his probable lineup. — James Olley

Why could Spain win?

No one is arguing that Spain have been the best team at Euro 2024. They have won all six matches and have already beaten hosts Germany and pre-tournament favourites France in the knockout rounds. They have done so scoring the most goals (13), creating the most chances (96) and by playing front-foot, attacking football. A lot of the focus has been on the verticality added to a previously possession-heavy side by wingers Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal. Thanks to them, they can now go direct and cause problems in transition, although they also still manage the ball so well. They press diligently, have a nice balance to the side, a clear idea of how they want to play and in Rodri they might have the Player of the Tournament.

Ballon d’Or shouts are growing for the Manchester City midfielder, and the chances are if he’s on song, Spain will win. City’s FA Cup final defeat ended a run of 74 games unbeaten for his club, but Rodri has stepped straight back into winning habits with his country.

Spain were considered outsiders before the tournament, but the quiet optimism that has radiated from the camp since they opened with a 3-0 win against Croatia has proven justified. They go into the final as favourites. — Sam Marsden

Who deserves the trophy more: Southgate or De la Fuente?

Southgate for a number of reasons. Firstly, Sunday could be culmination of eight years in charge during which he has redefined the culture around the England team and broken down a series of historical barriers. He has now won more tournament knockout games than every other England manager since 1966 combined. He has secured back-to-back Euros finals, and this weekend’s is England’s first major final outside of London.

It is possible to pick holes in those achievements, not least this summer in that England have had a significantly easier route to the final than Spain and the football really was terrible earlier in the tournament. A more proactive manager might have secured victory in the last Euros final against Italy as Roberto Mancini gradually took the game away from England before winning on penalties.

Southgate has his flaws but he has presided over an unprecedented period of deep tournament runs, doing so more recently amid a fierce backlash from many people with short memories. Some of the criticism has been valid but throwing beer cups in his direction and booing his name when read out before kickoff is not given both his track record and sincere desire to do his nation proud. And let’s not forget his journey as a player: missing a penalty in the Euro 1996 semifinal shootout against Germany is a moment that has long threatened to define him. What a transformation it would be if he could mark eight years and 102 games as manager with a historic trophy lift. — Olley

The word “deserves” is an awkward one. Neither appointment was especially exciting at the time, but both have done good jobs. It’s easy to argue that Southgate would be a fitting winner given his trajectory with England as a player and coach and what he has done in the past eight years, including enduring extreme criticism at times during this tournament. However, if we’re just talking about what we have seen in Germany, then Luis de la Fuente edges it.

Spain’s performances have been recognisable and consistent throughout. They have taken games to opponents and not sat back once while leading. It’s an extension of the work De la Fuente has done throughout the past decade at the Spanish Football Federation. He has previously won the U19 Euros, the U21 Euros, a silver medal at the Olympic Games and the UEFA Nations League last summer. Many of the players in the senior side now played under him at youth level — including Rodri, Dani Olmo, Marc Cucurella and Pedri, among others — and those longstanding relationships, coupled with his in-tournament experience, have helped Spain prosper in Germany. — Marsden

What weaknesses could each team exploit in their opponent?

Spain might be the first side England play that are willing to allow them space on the break. If England can play through the press when they win the ball, they could create chances, although they will need to be more willing to run in behind than they have been so far — Spain play with the highest defensive line at the tournament. Goalkeeper Unai Simón has also had a couple of shaky moments. His mistake led to a Croatia penalty in the opener — which was missed — and he almost gifted Germany a goal last week, although Kai Havertz could only loft the ball onto the roof of the net.

Spain will focus on their strengths more than England’s weaknesses. They will look to Rodri and Fabián Ruiz to run the game and rely on Williams and Yamal to win their battles against the England full-backs. — Marsden

England’s inability to keep possession has been a habitual tournament failing. Although Spain are more direct under De la Fuente, they remain excellent in that regard — with Rodri the absolute master of dictating play — and so the midfield battle will be vital.

If England can get a foothold in the game, their rich array of attacking talent could exploit a vulnerable-looking Spain defence, particularly at centre-back. It would be a major surprise if Harry Kane did not start the game — unless the blow to his right foot sustained against the Netherlands is more serious than first feared — but England’s firepower off the bench could also be telling. Both Watkins and Ivan Toney have contributed key moments in this tournament to date, the former spectacularly so in scoring the 90th-minute winner against Netherlands, taking advantage of a tiring defence. His confidence will be sky high. — Olley

England player to watch

Bukayo Saka. The Arsenal winger’s consistency and application is so unswerving that it is easy to take him for granted. Saka was a menace against Switzerland — scoring a brilliant equaliser in that quarterfinal — and particularly in the first half against the Netherlands. But his tactical intelligence is also particularly important to England when they adopt a hybrid system. England used a back five out of possession with Saka tucking in at right wing-back but then switched to a four-man defence with the ball as the 22-year-old pushed forward to operate as a more conventional winger. His ability one-on-one is not matched by many in the game, and he will fancy the matchup against Cucurella. — Olley

Spain player to watch

Dani Olmo. Obviously Rodri, Yamal and, to a lesser extent, Williams are the key men for Spain, but England will also need to be on top of Olmo. The RB Leipzig forward started the tournament on the bench, but Pedri’s injury handed him his chance against Germany, when he scored one and assisted on the winner. He then came into the side against France, scoring the winner himself. Prior to that, he was already having an impact as a substitute. He has a tournament-high five goal contributions — three goals and two assists — and is given freedom to roam between the lines in front of Rodri and Ruiz. — Marsden

Score prediction

Spain 2-1 England. The form lines suggest Spain deserve to start this game as favourites. England keep finding a way to win — and they might do so again — but this will be the toughest challenge they have faced by some distance at these Euros, and Spain have shown a consistently higher level throughout the tournament. — Olley

Spain 3-1 England. Both teams have responded to going behind in the knockout rounds — Spain against Georgia and France, England in all three matches — so it doesn’t seem like the first goal will provide a knockout blow on this occasion. It will be tight, but Spain have been the better side throughout and there’s no reason to imagine that will drastically change Sunday. The third goal will come on the break as England chase a late equaliser. — Marsden