The All-Star pitchers who can bring the heat — and the hitters who can beat it
-
Jesse Rogers, ESPN Staff Writer
This has been the year of high velocity in Major League Baseball. Pitchers such as Pittsburgh Pirates rookie starter Paul Skenes (who will start the All-Star Game on Tuesday night for the National League) and Oakland Athletics closer Mason Miller are bringing the heat like we’ve never seen before. Radar guns are routinely hitting triple digits all over the league. The average velocity on fastballs this season is 93.8 mph, matching last year’s mark as the highest in baseball history.
At the plate, hitters are getting more used to seeing pitches at, near or over 100 mph — and they’re adjusting, albeit incrementally. In 2021, batters hit .235 off pitches thrown at 95 mph or greater. That’s up to .240 this season, and with more slug. According to ESPN Stats & Information, there have been 0.167 home runs per game off 95 mph-plus pitches in 2024, up from 0.157 three years ago.
Which brings us to the 2024 All-Star Game. This Midsummer Classic will feature many of these high-heat masters, hurlers and hitters alike. We picked five pitchers and five position players on the rosters in Arlington, Texas, examining what makes them special.
The pitchers
Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians
The number that proves he can bring the heat: Clase’s slider averages 90.4 mph, tops among All-Star pitchers.
How he is dominating in 2024: If not for Miller, Clase would be the leader in many of the flamethrowing categories. In fact, if he has a slight uptick on his cutter in the second half, he could join the Oakland closer as the only two pitchers to average more than 100 mph on their fastball. Batters are hitting just .155 off of it. And he doesn’t walk anyone — he’s handed out just five free passes in 44⅓ innings this year. On pace for more than 40 saves and an ERA under 1.00, for a first-place team, Clase is in the AL Cy Young conversation.
The quote: “Obviously, 99 to 100 mph is hard when it’s straight. His movement is across and a little down, and when it’s coming at that velocity and cutting into me as a lefty, I’d say, yeah, it’s pretty hard to hit. It’s hard to pick up, too, just the way his arm action is. After seeing him a bunch, I think, ‘Tonight is going to the night I get to him’ and then it’s, ‘No, maybe next time.'” — Detroit Tigers outfielder Riley Greene
Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox
The number that proves he can bring the heat: His four-seam fastball averages 97 mph, tops among American League All-Star starters and second in the game behind Skenes.
How he is dominating in 2024: Before the season, Crochet asked to move into Chicago’s starting rotation and things could not have gone better. He’s made every start, and even with a reduced workload of late to save on his arm — he pitched just two innings by design on Friday — he leads the majors with 150 strikeouts. Many have come on that wicked four-seamer. Batters are hitting just .189 off of it, while slugging a measly .276.
The quote: “He’s unlike any other pitcher I’ve ever seen, in terms of how he moves. I don’t know a whole lot about his repertoire, but I know how his body moves and that’s what I pay attention to. I’m a crossfire righty. He’s a crossfire lefty, but he has like 7 feet of extension and also throws 99 to 100 mph. It’s tough for hitters. It’s fun to watch him move.” — Skenes
Mason Miller, Oakland Athletics
The number that proves he can bring the heat: Miller is on track to become one of the few pitchers to average 100 mph or more on his fastball over the course of a season. He’s already thrown 299 such pitches this year.
How he is dominating in 2024: Pick your poison. Batters are hitting .153 off Miller’s 100 mph fastball and just .140 off his 87 mph slider. Both are devastating pitches, which have helped lead him to an astonishing 46.6% strikeout rate, averaging just under two K’s for every inning pitched. It makes him an attractive trade candidate on a team going nowhere this year. But the price should be enormous.
The quote: “Sometimes you get an opportunity on a foul ball or walking around the mound for a moment. Depends on the stadium, too. Funny enough, the ones that I think I threw hard end up being a little low. It’s weird. I can’t always tell.” — Miller, on whether he looks at the radar gun while pitching
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
The number that proves he can bring the heat: His four-seam fastball comes at hitters harder than any other All-Star starter’s, averaging 99.2 mph.
How he is dominating in 2024: Um, how hasn’t he dominated since getting called up in early May? It’s been one eye-opening performance after another, including his last start before the All-Star break: A seven-inning, 11-strikeout, no-hit outing on the road against the first-place Brewers. It marked the second time he was pulled in the middle of a no-hit bid on the road, including his first contest outside of Pittsburgh back on May 17. He’s 6-0 with 89 strikeouts across 66⅓ innings and a 1.90 ERA in 11 career starts. Enough said.
The quote: “He’s really advanced for his age. He knows how to use his great stuff. He knows how to pitch, especially being so young. I’m not downplaying 100 mph, but you see 100 a lot. He’s not just up there ripping 100. It’s different than that. He’s pitching.” — Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich
The number that proves he can bring the heat: Skubal is the only All-Star starter to rank in the top 3 in both fastball (96.8) and slider (88.7) velocity.
How he is dominating in 2024: Skubal throws five different pitches — four of them have a batting average against under .200. Meanwhile, batters are hitting .217 off his “worst” pitch, his changeup — though that one has a 46% strikeout rate. It’s added up to complete domination from Skubal in his breakout season, though he showed some signs of this last year as well. Now he’s doing it every five days. He throws everything hard and the strikeouts have followed. He’ll likely set a career mark in that category before the calendar turns to September.
The quote: “It’s coming in hot. Skubal is nasty. I faced him a lot coming up through the minor leagues. The thing with him is all the off-speed stuff coming off the fastball has gotten better and better. I hit some balls off him this year, but I was 0-for-3. He and the Detroit graveyard got me. He might be the best left-handed pitcher in the game right now.” — Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm
The hitters
The number that proves he can beat the heat: Judge is tied with teammate Juan Soto with 27 hits this season off pitches at 95 mph or greater, the most among the All-Stars.
How he is dominating in 2024: Judge is the Miller or Skenes of hitters when it comes to velocity. Besides his .375 batting average against 95 mph or greater, he has hit five home runs off those pitches, second only to Soto. He also owns the highest average exit velocity among all hitters at 96.4 mph.
The quote: “If you throw a fastball, he’ll hit it out to the opposite field. If you throw an off-speed pitch, he’ll pull it out. I joke with teammates we’re the team that got him hot. He got ejected [May 4] the game before us, then I gave up a double and a homer and he went on a tear. It’s my fault.” — Skubal
Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
The number that proves he can beat the heat: Kwan is hitting .370 off pitches 95 mph or higher.
How he is dominating in 2024: Kwan sneaked into this group with an uncanny ability to get his bat through the zone as quickly as anyone in the game right now. At just 5-foot-9, he’s compiled an OPS+ of 159 — that’s usually reserved for the sluggers in the league. More evidence of an amazing first half comes via his average exit velocity: It’s just 86.4 mph. Kwan simply has great bat-to-ball skills against heat — and against just about everything else pitchers throw.
The quote: “He has a great approach. When you’re facing him, you’re probably not going to get a swing-and-miss, even against velocity. You’re just hoping to make a pitch and he hits it at somebody. His bat-to-ball skills are great and he has great hand-eye coordination.” — Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
The number that proves he can beat the heat: Ohtani has five home runs off pitches 95 mph or greater, tied for the second most in the first half.
How he is dominating in 2024: Ohtani doesn’t have as many hits off high velocity as some other All-Stars, but when he makes contact off those pitches, they go far. Fast in, fast out comes to mind when watching Ohtani hit flamethrowers. For example, his max exit velocity this year is 119.2 mph, the hardest of his career. He also owns the longest home run of the year, a 476-foot blast and possesses a 64% hard hit rate off four-seam fastballs. It doesn’t get much better than that.
The quote: “I still think what’s most impressive is he’s doing this while rehabbing Tommy John. I really don’t have words to describe what he’s doing. Rehabbing an injury while being the best hitter in the game still. I really can’t describe it.” — Dodgers teammate Freddie Freeman
Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres
The number that proves he can beat the heat: Profar ranks fifth among All-Stars in OPS off pitches 95 mph or greater.
How he is dominating in 2024: The surprise All-Star is catching up to heat with the best of them, hitting four home runs off those 95-plus mph fastballs. That fits with Judge, Ohtani and Soto. Pretty good company to be in for the 11-year veteran. Profar has always hit four-seamers well, but never like this, slugging over .500 off those pitches for the first time in his career.
The quote: “He was a well-sought-after prospect. It’s cool to see him reach his full potential this year. Better approach, more selective this year from what I’ve seen. You have to find the holes in his slug with your velocity. That hasn’t been easy this year.” — Dodgers starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow
The number that proves he can beat the heat: Soto has seven home runs off pitches at 95 mph or greater, the most in the game.
How he is dominating in 2024: Soto is putting up video game numbers off heat, slugging an incredible .776 off four-seam fastballs, which is actually lower than his expected slug of .913. Soto’s farthest home run ranks just 30th among all hitters this season, but distance isn’t his game — contact and production off fastballs is. His 1.235 OPS against pitches at 95 mph or greater is tops among All-Stars.
The quote: “There’s never an at-bat that’s easy or off. He won’t get himself out. The pitcher has to get him out. He has power to all fields against high velocity. He can hang in an at-bat with the best of them. And he does it every single day. That’s most impressive.” — Yankees teammate Clay Holmes
