Olympics men's basketball: USA is the team to beat, and here are the teams that could do it

PARIS — The most competitive international men’s basketball tournament in history is finally here.

Just being one of the 12 teams to qualify for the 2024 Olympics is a major accomplishment. There are loaded teams and world-class players who are wishing they were in France now, including the Luka Doncic-led Slovenia squad that reached the semifinals in Tokyo three years ago, but lost in a pre-Olympic qualifying tournament earlier this month.

Here’s a look at what you need to know to get ready for the tournament, which tips off Saturday with Australia vs. Spain (11 a.m. local time/5 a.m. ET).

The 12 nations competing for gold will be divided into three groups of four teams for the opening round. Each team plays the other three in its group. The teams with the two best records in each group will advance to the quarterfinals. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition and then point differential.

The two best third-place squads of the three groups also advance, which is where point differential often makes the biggest difference, so winning matters, but winning big matters too (something NBA fans became familiar with during last season’s inaugural in-season tournament).

The eight teams that eventually advance to the quarterfinals that start on Aug. 6 will likely create an unpredictable and talent-rich knockout round.

MORE: Everything to know about Team USA

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The favorite

Team USA is the betting favorite (-400 at ESPN BET). The Americans have won the past four gold medals and seven of eight since NBA players were allowed to compete in 1992. Team architect Grant Hill has brought arguably the deepest 12-man club in the program’s history to Paris. However, Team USA’s gold in Tokyo in 2021 was very hard-fought run and illustrated how the margin for error has shrunk. Three years ago, the Kevin Durant-led squad lost to France in the group stage and managed just a five-point victory in the gold medal game.

In the lead-up to the Olympics this summer, three of the team’s five exhibition games weren’t decided until the final minute or two, including a one-point win over a South Sudan team it will see again next week. Head coach Steve Kerr, who was an assistant three years ago in Tokyo, called on the team to raise its intensity level as it arrived in Paris.

“That’s what today is about,” he said on Thursday after the team’s film session. “It’s the reminder. It’s time. We’re here. So it’s got to be 40 minutes of force and attention and focus, and we can’t let teams outplay us effort- and energy-wise.”

Even by Team USA standards, this team has minimal time to jell. Only two players, Anthony Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton, played in the World Cup last summer. Only five — Durant, Jrue Holiday, Bam Adebayo, Devin Booker and Jayson Tatum — played in 2021 in Tokyo, and Durant missed the entire exhibition schedule nursing a sore calf. LeBron James has not played for Team USA since the 2012 Olympics in London, and Stephen Curry is playing in his first Olympics (he did play in the 2010 and 2014 FIBA World Cups).

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The top contenders:

• Canada has 10 current NBA players on its roster and a loaded backcourt with NBA MVP runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and NBA champion Jamal Murray, plus a host of wings who — not coincidentally — are ideal to beat the Americans. Perhaps equally as important, the Canadians have stressed continuity and have logged more time together than their American counterparts as they try to bridge the talent/chemistry divide that Team USA always fights. However, they headline the “Group of Death” and face a brutal road to the gold medal game.

• Serbia has Nikola Jokic, a three-time NBA MVP who has kept Team USA up at night worrying. It also possess NBA-level guards, something many European powers can’t say. Jokic and Atlanta Hawks guard Bogdan Bogdanovic have a ton of national team experience dating to Rio 2016, when the Serbs took the silver. Also, and perhaps most important, they may get three looks at Team USA. Once in the exhibition season, once in pool play and potentially once for a medal. The coach is old master Svetislav Pešić, who surprised many last year in leading the team to a silver in the World Cup without Jokic.

• Australia won its first medal in Tokyo — a bronze — but this year’s team had slightly lower expectations. But it was very impressive during pre-Olympic games, which has elevated Australia’s chances in France. Josh Giddey has established himself as the centerpiece of the team and he racks up stats attacking the rim and distributing. Veteran coach Brian Goorjian has expertly prepared the team and veteran guard Patty Mills, playing in his fifth Olympics, remains dangerous as an explosive scorer, putting up 28 points in an exhibition win over Jokic and Serbia earlier this month.

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Could steal a medal

• France took the silver in Tokyo, but has had a disappointing 12 months. Last year, it didn’t make it out of pool play at the World Cup. Then, even when adding Victor Wembanyama to the team for the first time in a major competition, it looked less impressive in losing four times in pre-Olympic games even though all of them were played in France. The front line of Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert — the top-two finishers in NBA Defensive Player of the Year voting last season — is scary for opponents, but the French are lacking in the backcourt and it really shows on this stage. Only three of the team’s guards — Frank Ntilikina, Nando De Colo and Evan Fournier — have NBA experience. They are playing at home and they must be respected, but they are not as feared as four years ago — or if they had secured the services of Joel Embiid, who is instead playing for Team USA.

• Germany is such a well-built and experienced team, it doesn’t feel great assigning it in this category. But it is an indication of how deep this tournament is. The Germans were impressive in winning the World Cup last summer. They’ve got that super valuable mix of a dominant lead guard, international star Dennis Schroeder, and a gigantic and talented front line with NBA players Franz Wagner, Moritz Wagner and Daniel Theis. Their veteran coach, Gordy Herbert, has proved to be brilliant at constructing and preparing his team.

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Biggest pool play games

• USA vs. Serbia, Sunday, 11:15 a.m. ET. A potential preview of the gold medal game, though the Americans dominated an exhibition earlier this month, winning 105-79.

• Spain vs. Greece, Tuesday, 5 a.m. ET. Giannis Antetokounmpo wept when Greece qualified this month by beating Croatia. Winning this one would go a long way toward advancing to the medal round, where the Greek squad is looking for its first Olympic medal.

• Canada vs. Australia, Tuesday, 7:30 a.m. ET. A major “Group of Death” showdown that could determine who advances to the medal round. Canada hasn’t medaled since winning silver at the first Olympic basketball tournament in 1936.

• Canada vs. Spain, Aug. 2, 11:15 a.m. ET. Canada coach Jordi Fernandez, the new head coach of the Brooklyn Nets, could need to secure a win over his home country to advance.

• France vs. Germany, Aug. 2, 3 p.m. ET. A classic European battle between teams loaded with big men with significant stakes. It should be noted that no host nation has advanced beyond the group stage since China in 2008.