How does Penn State finally beat Ohio State and Michigan? By taking way more risks

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — Andy Kotelnicki walks into the Penn State meeting room with his thumb and index finger pinched a quarter-inch apart, and by now, everyone gets it.

“The difference,” Kotelnicki says.

Just this much — an eyelash, a triviality, a snap during practice, a rep on the weight bench, three extra minutes in the film room. That’s the margin between Penn State, the perennial top-10 team knocking on the door of the College Football Playoff, and Penn State, national champs.

It’s the refrain that has been repeated again and again this offseason, as Penn State embraces a new offensive philosophy in the first season of an expanded playoff in hopes that this year might finally be the year it all comes together.

It’s a quarter-inch. It’s a mile. Either way, the biggest question looming over this Penn State season, Kotelnicki’s first as Penn State’s offensive coordinator, is whether he can help Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions bridge that gap.

“That’s a question I ask myself every day,” Kotelnicki said. “I don’t know. I wish that I could say that so confidently, but the reality is football programs and winning games, it’s so hard, and everything has to be done right. But do I think we’re doing things the right way? I know we are. And I want to be part of that change.”

Nowhere are those small gaps between good and great more obvious than at quarterback. In a certain light, Allar looked like an emerging star — “elite,” as head coach James Franklin told the Centre Daily Times this summer — and in another light, the harsh glare of playing on the biggest stages last season, he looked pedestrian, overwhelmed.

Was last year bad? That’s a complicated question to answer, particularly for Allar.

In his first season as Penn State’s starting QB, he threw 25 touchdown passes, ran for four more and threw just two picks. The list of QBs with 25 passing touchdowns and two or fewer interceptions is short: Allar in 2023 and Hendon Hooker, well on his way to a Heisman Trophy in 2022 before an injury ended his season that November.

This is the data Franklin likes to fall back on when pressed about his QB’s 2023 campaign.

“He did some phenomenal things, especially as a first-year starter,” Franklin said. “But there’s obviously a few games on our schedule every year we’ll ultimately be judged by, and those are the games we’ve got to play our best.”

Those games — last season and seemingly every season — are against Ohio State and Michigan. In 2023, Penn State entered the fourth quarter against the Buckeyes trailing 10-6 but lost 20-12. In 2023, Penn State entered the fourth quarter against Michigan trailing by a touchdown but lost 24-15.

Allar’s numbers in those two games: 43% completions, 4 yards-per-pass, one completion of more than 20 yards.

It was an echo of the larger narrative surrounding Franklin and the Nittany Lions. In Franklin’s tenure, Penn State is 4-16 against Michigan and Ohio State, averaging just 21 points per game. Against everyone else, the Nittany Lions are 79-18, averaging 34 points.

The QB1 job is a legacy position at Penn State. Just seven players have started a game over the past 14 years, dating to the Joe Paterno era, and the blueprint has been consistent. Before taking over the QB1 job last season, Allar spent a year learning under Sean Clifford, a four-year starter. Clifford spent a year learning under Trace McSorley, a three-year starter. McSorley spent a year learning under Christian Hackenberg, a three-year starter.

And yet, it’s like so much about Penn State — a decade-and-a-half of good quarterbacks who’ve been almost entirely defined by falling just short of something more.

So perhaps 2023 was just an extension of a trend that has been pushing in the same direction for a long time. Or, perhaps, 2023 was a window into what, exactly, is the difference between Penn State and the Big Ten’s elite.

“A lot of programs would want to be where we’re at,” Allar said. “We’re trying to catch the top 5% of programs right now. We’re in the top 10% in terms of talent and coaching staff and overall production. We need to just get over that hump.”

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THERE HAS BEEN a ubiquitous buzzword around Penn State this offseason: Explosiveness.

It’s so omnipresent that when Kotelnicki was asked how often it came up during his interview process, he laughed.

“Obviously, that’s a really important metric,” he said. “But the actual process … there was a lot more about dynamics, staff, relationship with players.”

Kotelnicki has known Franklin for years. Franklin took note of Kotelnicki’s offense when Penn State played Buffalo, where Kotelnicki called plays in 2015. That offseason, Kotelnicki and Buffalo head coach Lance Leipold were scheduled to speak at the Pennsylvania State Football Coaches Association clinic, and it just so happened they bumped into Franklin in the lobby of their hotel.

They talked for about a half-hour before Franklin proffered an invitation to visit Penn State’s facility. The next day, Leipold and Kotelnicki showed up for the tour with Franklin and one of his assistants. The foursome walked the building for 2½ hours, just talking ball, before Kotelnicki excused himself. He was still scheduled to speak at the convention.

“And I got there and go to speak,” Kotelnicki said, “and [Franklin] shows up with his entire offensive staff. And he’s just asking questions again and again.”

Seven years later, Kotelnicki was calling plays for Leipold at Kansas, where the pair had turned one of the worst programs in the country into a scoring machine. Franklin was looking for some of that same magic.

Kotelnicki wasn’t immediately swayed by the job. He could’ve made about the same money at Kansas, he said — “it wasn’t like ‘The Godfather,’ that I just couldn’t refuse” — but he thought back on that first meeting with Franklin and believed there was an alignment in their visions for the future.

Now Kotelnicki gushes over all the things that lured him to Happy Valley from his relationship with the rest of the staff to the approach to player development to the potential for winning championships that is hardwired into Penn State’s DNA.

But there’s still that one word that keeps coming up.

“Andy runs one of the most explosive offenses in college football so that was a big part of it,” Franklin said. “A lot of the things we felt like we were lacking over the last couple years, we felt those were strengths for Andy. I think it’s a really good opportunity for Andy and for Drew and for Penn State.”

This was not an area where he needed film cutups or deep analysis to explain the difference between Penn State and its biggest adversaries. The lack of explosiveness was obvious to anyone who watched the Nittany Lions last year.

While Kotelnicki’s previous offense at Kansas ranked among the most explosive units in the country, Penn State’s occupied the opposite end of the statistical hierarchy.

The Nittany Lions’ offense averaged an explosive play for every 8.2 dropbacks, 102nd nationally, half what Kansas did.

Allar averaged 6.96 yards-per-attempt in 2023, good for 123rd nationally, while Kansas’ QBs averaged better than 10.

Just 8% of Allar’s throws were for 20 air yards or more. Only Clemson QBs had a lower rate. Kansas, on the other hand, threw deep nearly three times as often.

“It was frustrating,” said tailback Nick Singleton, who saw his rushing yards dip from 1,061 as a freshman in 2022 to just 752 last season. “The season we had, it was a learning experience for me. Everybody throughout the whole season was keyed on the running backs, stacking the box.”

If that was the overarching narrative, the details of Penn State’s losses to both Ohio State and Michigan were all the more galling.

In those two games, Penn State had just four explosive plays through the air combined — and three were the result of long runs after the catch. Two of the three explosive pass plays against Ohio State came with the Nittany Lions down 14 with less than two minutes to play. The lone explosive pass against Michigan came just seven minutes into the first quarter.

On third- and fourth-down plays in those two games, Penn State threw beyond the sticks on just 14 of 25 passes, and Allar completed just three of those balls.

That Ohio State and Michigan routinely flustered Allar in the backfield or that receivers often weren’t open downfield played into the issues, but the big takeaway was simple: Penn State refused to take big shots.

“Drew’s got to push the ball down the field a few more times, but we also have to make a few more plays for him,” Franklin said. “He has plenty of arm strength. That’s not an issue. It’s a combination of factors.”

And yet, the criticism comes with an asterisk because the results were mostly good. The 2023 offense was like a stock portfolio loaded with blue chips. It was designed to produce consistent returns that, over the long haul, would ensure a comfortable retirement. It was the safe play, and as a result, just four of Allar’s 497 dropbacks or runs ended with a turnover.

But risk and reward are so closely correlated that it was hard to ignore the lack of upside in this approach, and against teams like Ohio State and Michigan, the Nittany Lions clearly needed a little more “get rich quick” and a little less “stay the course.”

But when Franklin offered the job to Kotelnicki last November, it was clear what the job required.

“He said those are the kinds of programs we need to beat,” Kotelnicki said, “and honestly, it was refreshing to hear that.”

Kotelnicki took it as a mission statement, and he has designed every part of building out his offense at Penn State around winning the big ones.

“You’re keeping that big-picture view of, this is why we’re running these kinds of plays,” he said. “You’re running them because they’re going to be good against those teams. To take the next step, this is what it looks like.”

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ALLAR WAS WATCHING film the first time he met his new offensive coordinator.

This was just days after bowl matchups were announced, and Allar was critiquing Ole Miss, who the Nittany Lions would meet in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. Kotelnicki had been impressed with Allar when they’d spoken on the phone — “a real, genuine dude” — but the first in-person meeting was more of a whirlwind. Kotelnicki was touring Penn State’s facility, his wife and two kids in tow, shaking hands and exchanging hellos, and he only vaguely recalls that initial FaceTime with his new quarterback.

For Allar, however, it was a revelation.

Kotelnicki gave Allar a brief rundown of what he’d seen on film from the 2023 season, and he asked Allar what he liked or didn’t like from the game plan. It felt comfortable — an instant connection, Allar said.

“It was such a smooth transition,” Allar said.

In 2023, it was hard to find a through line on offense. According to multiple sources close to last year’s team, the offensive struggles too often led to a sense of desperation, and that translated into a philosophy that proved to be a moving target depending on the next opponent.

“We were kind of everywhere last year, not knowing what we wanted to do and who we could lean on,” tailback Kaytron Allen said.

Allar called it “frustrating,” but said he could sense a shift from their first conversation outside the film room with his new OC.

If Allar was smitten immediately with his new OC, Kotelnicki, too, found an enticing project in his new QB1. In just a few minutes of conversation, he was sold that Allar, more than anything, wanted to get better. He wanted to be great.

That’s what this offseason has been about.

“You can talk about development all you want, about learning behind somebody,” Allar said, “but experience for me is the biggest thing. You gain more perspective on the things you need to be on top of, communication with the coaching staff, if you like or don’t like stuff and being open and honest with them.”

This was, admittedly, a problem last season. Allar is happy to take his share of the blame. He did what was asked of him, and for the most part, he kept his mouth shut.

That was a mistake.

“It was me just not being vocal enough,” he said. “[QB coach] Danny [O’Brien] made it clear, if he loves something but I don’t love it, tell him. It won’t hurt his feelings. ‘We need you to love all 65 or 75 plays we carry into each game.’ Being open and honest, it’s not hurting anybody’s feelings if I don’t like a play.”

And now, it’s “a partnership,” Kotelnicki said. It’s an offense with a streamlined philosophy and a goal to empower its QB. Kotelnicki often refers to “the octagon” — the eight basic plays that Penn State will run in every game but will run with different motions and sets and personnel groupings designed to simplify Allar’s job and complicate the defense’s.

“The energy within that offense, his game plan — I’ve loved it,” said safety Kevin Winston Jr. “He’s shown us so many looks I’ve never seen my whole time playing. It’s crazy to see that.”

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ALLEN IS A believer in visualization. To achieve a goal, he needs to see it in his mind first, picture each little detail. He has felt the weight of a conference trophy in his hands. He has wiped the confetti from his hair. It’s so close.

“I can physically feel myself in that moment,” he said. “I know it’s going to be crazy, winning the Big Ten, winning a national championship. It can get done.”

This is where Penn State is now. The margin between what’s on the field today and the feel of that trophy in Allen’s hands — that’s the difference Kotelnicki keeps talking about.

It’s an easy sell, but it also speaks to the delicate nature of Penn State’s perch near — but not at — the top of college football. The Nittany Lions win all the games they’re supposed to win, but to raise that bar means taking some risks.

It could be a boon. Or it could undermine all that’s gotten Penn State to the brink of a title, sending a program tumbling backward.

“We’re in a place that has really high expectations and standards,” Franklin said. “We embrace those. If you win 10 or 11 games on a consistent basis, people are pissed. There’s not too many places that are like that, but we embrace it. Being able to play in those moments and those games is something we look forward to.”

No one at Penn State wants to define success only in terms of Ohio State and Michigan, but they all know the refrain, too. The program has spent much of the past 20 years living on the doorstep of a title, but the Big Ten’s power couple has kept the Nittany Lions at bay.

“It’s definitely frustrating not beating those two teams because it always comes down to them two,” Allen said. “But this year, I feel like it’s going to be a different statement.”

This year, Michigan doesn’t show up on Penn State’s schedule for the first time since 2012, though if the Nittany Lions get their wish, they could face off in a potential Big Ten championship. Instead, the schedule features newcomers UCLA, USC and Washington — all teams likely to challenge Penn State’s ability to move the football in chunks and score points in droves.

Penn State has shifted its investments into a portfolio with far more growth potential. That’s exciting. It’s dangerous, too. This isn’t a plan without risks.

But the Nittany Lions have lived on the brink of a championship long enough. It’s time to take risks, to cross that chasm between what’s been good enough and what’s needed to win it all, and see what awaits on the other side.

Kotelnicki isn’t trying to bridge that gap alone. He’s just trying to show his guys the blueprint for how to build their own bridge.

“We’re getting there,” Allar said. “We just need to do more than we ever have before to get where we want to go. I don’t have any doubt in my mind we’ll put the work in to get there.”