Pay or trade Brandon Aiyuk? Why the 49ers' decision should be easy — but is now complicated

If the 2024 NFL offseason will be remembered for anything, it will be the tempest of wide receiver contract negotiation. The season is mere weeks away, and we’re nowhere near done. Hold-ins persist for CeeDee Lamb in Dallas, Ja’Marr Chase in Cincinnati, and, most significantly, Brandon Aiyuk in San Francisco. Aiyuk has yet to suit up for camp as his request to be traded has publicly unfolded over the past few weeks.

I’m no good at dissecting Instagram posts or sourcing contract details — I’ll leave both noble pursuits to their respective experts. What I can do is try to answer some questions about Aiyuk, the player: Just how good of a wide receiver is he, really? And about the San Francisco team that is trying to keep him in the building: Just how badly do the 49ers need him?

Here’s my read on what 26-year-old Aiyuk means for the team he’s trying to depart, and the team that might acquire him, as this saga continues:

Jump to a section:
The best comp for Aiyuk’s spectacular 2023 season
Why is Aiyuk’s contract situation so contentious?
Sooo … should the 49ers trade Aiyuk?

Just how good is Aiyuk?

Contextualizing the greatness of an NFL receiver presents a much bigger challenge than you might expect. The position is oversaturated with talent, which warps our perspective.

Here’s an example: The 15th-best quarterback in the league is someone like Kirk Cousins or Jared Goff; the 15th-best pass rusher is someone like Alex Highsmith or Rashan Gary. But the 15th-best wide receiver is closer to Mike Evans, who has produced 10 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, or Amari Cooper, who just had 1,250 receiving yards on the Browns’ quarterback carousel last season. That’s how good the position is. When Jeremy Fowler surveyed league personnel for their ranking of the top 10 wide receivers, a total of 29 names got at least one vote. The cream of the receiver crop has never been richer.

In Fowler’s survey, Aiyuk debuted at 10th on the back of his best professional season: 1,342 yards on 75 catches with seven scores. That might not look stellar at first blush — Tyreek Hill had 1,800 receiving yards last season — but it’s not the raw output that’s impressive. It’s the efficiency.

Aiyuk averaged 3.3 yards per route run, which is the fourth-best number for a wide receiver since 2010. Yards per route run is a stable metric that rewards a receiver for several things: earning a lot of targets on the routes he runs, catching a lot of those targets and getting a lot of yards out of those catches. Aiyuk was especially good at the last one. A whopping 37.3% of his catches were explosive plays, receptions that went for at least a 20-yard gain. That’s the best explosive play rate for a high-volume receiver (more than 100 targets) since Allen Robinson in 2015.

Perhaps more critically, Aiyuk was not just a shot-play artist. Although he’s a blistering deep threat with game-breaking speed, he was not used as a field-stretching WR2 riding sidecar to the high-volume stick-moving WR1. He led the 49ers in targets and receptions, and his catch rate is just as meaningful as his explosive play rate. He hauled in 72.1% of his targets. (The league-average wideout caught 63 of his targets in 2023.)

Think about that for a second. A receiver with a high percentage of explosive receptions is usually getting risky downfield targets that predict a low catch rate, but Aiyuk easily bucked that trend. Here’s every wide receiver season with at least 100 targets since 2010. Look at where Aiyuk’s 2023 season lands. It’s almost alone in its marriage of explosiveness and efficiency:

We just saw one of the most effective receiver seasons … ever. By the numbers, an Aiyuk route last season was more dangerous than any Calvin Johnson route, any Julio Jones route, any Davante Adams route.

That simply doesn’t pass the sniff test, however. Aiyuk’s numbers might have been historic, but the league ranked him as the 10th-best receiver right now. His talent pops off the screen, sure. But only as excellent — not as exceptional.

Aiyuk has benefited from huge inflation in the production achievable at the position. Of the five best single seasons by yards per route run, three came from 2023, and one of the remaining two came from 2022. Efficiency is climbing even as raw volume is climbing: We know that the league is passing the football more than ever, and doing so more successfully. There were 27 1,000-yard receivers last season, which is the most the league has ever produced.

Aiyuk was also historically explosive and efficient … on a historically explosive and efficient offense. Since 2010, only the 2013 Eagles had a better explosive pass rate than the 2023 49ers. Although plenty of that credit certainly belongs to Aiyuk, it’s tough to ignore George Kittle once again leading tight ends in explosive catch rate (27.7%) or Deebo Samuel‘s 25% explosive catch rate, an astonishing number considering his targets were so much shallower (6.78 air yards per target) than Aiyuk’s (13.95).

This is a chicken-and-egg problem. Aiyuk’s talent is the rising tide, and it lifts the boats of Kittle and Samuel, who are not bona fide WR1s like Aiyuk. Samuel is a gadget player made perfect in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but he is at his best on shallow targets or designed screens — Shanahan couldn’t give him Aiyuk’s menu of downfield routes and expect him to dominate. When he is paired with Aiyuk, he gets touches more curated for his skill set, as does Kittle.

The farthest Samuel ever went downfield in a single season was 2021, when he averaged 8.75 air yards per target — still, more than half of his yardage came after the catch, and only 30% of his receptions were explosives. That’s a great season, but not comparable to what Aiyuk did in 2023, or how Aiyuk was used. The best comparison — although we don’t have a ton of route-specific data to emphasize it — is the 2016 season Julio Jones delivered under Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta. It wasn’t Jones’ best season for volume, but for efficiency and explosiveness, it was Aiyuk-esque. (And, not for nothing, it was another Super Bowl year for Shanahan’s team. Don’t ask what happened next.)

So Aiyuk likely unlocks an echelon of the 49ers’ offense for everyone — Samuel, Kittle, and even quarterback Brock Purdy (as we’ll see below) — that they otherwise would not reach. But by the same token, it’s almost certain Aiyuk would not set nearly as historically significant numbers if he were on a remarkably worse offense. That’s important, considering he very well might end up on a remarkably worse offense by the time the week is out.

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Why is Aiyuk’s contract situation so contentious?

In a wide receiver market so saturated with talent and ballooning production, many young wideouts can argue that they’re a top guy — and top guys are getting paid. That’s why the position saw a market-topping extension for Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions), which was immediately leapfrogged by a market-topping extension for A.J. Brown (Eagles), which was then leapfrogged by a market-topping extension for Justin Jefferson (Vikings).

It’s why Tee Higgins (Bengals) requested a trade before succumbing to the franchise tag, and why teammate Chase is holding in (and, lately, holding out) for a contract extension of his own. It’s why Hill (Dolphins) and Cooper (Browns) and Courtland Sutton (Broncos) all got their existing contracts buffed during training camp — the top of the market has grown so fast that deals signed just two offseasons ago are going stale.

As the market explodes, 49ers general manager John Lynch has been painted into a corner. The 49ers can’t argue that they can carry only one top-of-market wide receiver deal, because the Eagles have two massive contracts in Brown and DeVonta Smith, and the Dolphins have the same with Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Waddle and Smith were both drafted in 2021, a year after Aiyuk, so San Francisco can’t really contend that Aiyuk should wait out his fifth-year option, either. It is reasonable that he wants to be paid now, even with Samuel’s $28.6 million cap hit sitting on the books.

And considering Aiyuk’s towering 2023 production, crafting the argument for him to become the league’s top-paid receiver isn’t very hard. He has gotten better in each of his four seasons as a pro. He was the most explosive receiver and one of the three most efficient wideouts in football last season. If we really strap on our agent hat, we can even claim he is the reason Purdy has been so successful. Since Purdy took over as the 49ers’ starter in 2022, Aiyuk has been his most valuable target. Among all of San Francisco’s terrifying weapons, Aiyuk is the best at turning a Purdy target into a successful play, a first down or an explosive play:

This is far from an airtight argument. The simplest explanation for Purdy’s explosion coinciding with Aiyuk’s emergence is just that: coincidence. Just as Aiyuk was entering his physical prime and escaping Shanahan’s doghouse, where he spent much of the 2021 season, Purdy stumbled into the starting job and brought downfield aggressiveness that incumbent QB Jimmy Garoppolo lacked. This is another chicken-and-egg problem that makes discerning just how valuable Aiyuk is to the 49ers very, very challenging.

In that spirit, let’s cast aside our agent hat and replace it with a general manager one. If I were in Lynch’s seat, negotiating with Aiyuk and his agent, I wouldn’t bring up the Purdy stats. Instead, I’d bring up those of Texans WR Nico Collins.

Collins enjoyed a 2023 breakout much like Aiyuk’s, perhaps one even more surprising. But Collins is just one year younger than Aiyuk and fills a very similar role. Under Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, who came from San Francisco and runs an offense reminiscent of Shanahan’s, Collins is the same primary receiver that Aiyuk is for the 49ers. Let’s compare the production of the two young players:

It’s worth noting the differences: Collins got shallower targets and produced more yards after the catch, while Aiyuk got targets farther downfield with lower YAC. But there will always be differences between two receivers, even in similar roles in similar offenses. The connective tissue here is as strong as it gets in the NFL.

Of course, in a vacuum, this isn’t really an issue. Collins being very, very good doesn’t change the fact that Aiyuk is also very, very good. Both should get big fat contracts to reflect their recent excellence and rosy futures.

The issue is Collins just signed a contract extension. With one year left on his previous deal, he signed a three-year, $72.75 million extension in May, an average of only $24.25 million per year. And if the words “only $24.25 million per year” seem absolutely preposterous to you, I get it, but Collins took less than Smith got on his extension in April. That $24.25 million average ranked seventh among receivers at the time it was signed, and it has only been kicked further down the list by more recent extensions. It’s this contract that would give me pause before handing Aiyuk a blank check.

I don’t know exactly what contract Aiyuk is pursuing from the 49ers, but ESPN’s Mike Reiss reported that the Patriots were willing to pay Aiyuk $32 million per year should he accept a trade to the Patriots (Aiyuk declined). That’s top-three WR money, and it’s reasonable to expect the 49ers and Aiyuk are negotiating somewhere in that range.

Again, it makes sense that Aiyuk wants that money. All the other young receivers around him are getting paid, or are holding out to get it done. But the riddle for Lynch to solve is this: What percentage of Aiyuk’s production belongs to his individual excellence, his talent level? What percentage of it is the result of playing on an elite offense with so many other weapons to account for? And what percentage of it is the result of playing for perhaps the preeminent offensive mind of this generation?

The success of Collins is a cautionary tale. Maybe it’s much easier to be a highly efficient and explosive receiver in this role than it appears. Maybe succeeding in this position warrants $24 million per year, not $34 million — top-10 wide receiver money but not top-three.

Even against an ever-rising cap ceiling, that $10 million is not an insignificant amount for San Francisco. The impending Purdy extension looms over their checkbooks. Because Purdy was not a first-round pick, he has no fifth-year option attached to his contract; his four-year deal is up after the 2025 season, and he’s eligible for an extension in March.

Just as the wide receiver market is booming, so too is the quarterback market. Tua Tagovailoa just got $53.1 million per year for aptly quarterbacking a high-octane Shanahan-inspired offense in Miami. Jordan Love got $55 million per year for one season of starting. You think Purdy, who has been to two conference championship games and one Super Bowl, is taking anything less than those colossal figures? With another playoff run and a potential Dak Prescott free agent campaign inflating the market further, Purdy might be a $60 million man by this time next year.

It isn’t impossible to work around the massive quarterback extension. Once again, those pesky Eagles found room in the books, extending Jalen Hurts alongside Brown and Smith. The Dolphins have Tagovailoa with Waddle and Hill. But it requires financial finagling. Teams have to borrow from future years with clever structures. And eventually, they’ll reach critical mass. The 49ers can’t have a top tackle contract (Trent Williams) and top pass rusher contract (Nick Bosa) and top defensive tackle contract (Javon Hargrave) and top linebacker contract (Fred Warner) and top running back contract (Christian McCaffrey) and top tight end contract (Kittle) when they want to carry a top quarterback contract and two top wide receiver contracts. Something’s gotta give.

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Should the 49ers trade Aiyuk?

Probably not. He’s a great young player who could still be getting even better, has obvious chemistry with Purdy and is great in the offense. Obviously, as the 49ers get tight against the cap, they should investigate every opportunity to get cheaper and accumulate premier draft capital. I have no doubt that, even if Aiyuk were happily practicing and willing to play on his fifth-year option, they would have been tossing around the idea of trading him, just to see the market.

What I can say with certainty is this: San Francisco should not trade him under these conditions. It is the middle of August, for heaven’s sake. The 49ers, who would still very much love to win the Super Bowl that has maddeningly eluded Shanahan for many years, are the favorites to represent the NFC once again. To trade away their most productive offensive weapon from 2023, their quarterback’s favorite target, would be silly at any time — but especially so this close to this season, when there is little time to onboard replacement receivers or adjust the offense to Aiyuk’s absence.

Aiyuk is also using the leverage of his training camp hold-in to maneuver a trade to the Steelers, which is damaging to the 49ers’ leverage in trade negotiations. Again, this is well within his rights: He is not compelled to cheerily hop, skip and jump to whatever franchise the Lynch and Shanahan choose to toss him to, which is why he axed the deal with the Patriots.

Aiyuk has displayed clear interest in two teams: the Steelers and the Commanders. The Commanders make sense, as he played with rookie QB Jayden Daniels at Arizona State. (You read that right: Aiyuk, who is entering his fifth season as a pro, played with Daniels, who is a rookie.) But the Steelers … don’t really make much sense. Their quarterback room is a rather depressing battle between declining veteran Russell Wilson and first-round disappointment Justin Fields. Even if the quarterback play were passable, Mike Tomlin’s Steelers tend to favor a run-heavy offensive philosophy: grind the defense down, eat some clock, control the ball and trust the defense to finish the job. New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is cut from a similar cloth. Although there are some schematic similarities between the Shanahan offense and the projected Pittsburgh offense, there is a huge difference in philosophy and also in, uh, goodness.

Why would Aiyuk want to go to Pittsburgh so fervently that all other suitors have fallen away? Yes, that includes the Commanders, who have apparently removed themselves from the Aiyuk sweepstakes. I’m really not sure. Respect for Tomlin, a beloved players’ coach? A faint memory of the Russ who cooked in the mid-2010s?

Whatever the source, the 49ers have been forced into a one-team market for Aiyuk, and that makes it nearly impossible to get a fair price on a trade. A first-round pick was the centerpiece of the 2022 deals that sent A.J. Brown from Tennessee to Philadelphia and Marquise Brown from Baltimore to Arizona, two players on rookie deals and in need of big extensions, as Aiyuk is. I’m confident Aiyuk is a far better player than Marquise Brown was then, and he might be at the level A.J. Brown was before Brown took another step with the Eagles.

There hasn’t been any firm reporting on the trade package Pittsburgh has submitted. Given the 49ers’ lack of leverage throughout this entire process, I don’t see how they could have cajoled a first-rounder out of the Steelers, who are notoriously shy traders. If this deal gets done, I bet you the Steelers made out like bandits.

But this deal might not get done! The 49ers don’t want to trade Aiyuk. The two sides are still negotiating a long-term extension. Could the 49ers really keep Aiyuk after all this drama?

It’s less preposterous than you might think. Remember, before Samuel got his extension from the 49ers in 2022, he demanded a trade and froze contract talks with the team, much as Aiyuk did this summer. The nature of the divide was a little different: Samuel was taking running back snaps and running back hits, and he was appropriately worried about his career longevity if his usage in the offense didn’t change. The wide receiver environment was a little different, too — this was a time when top receivers made only $25 million per year, and we had little cords that connected our phones to the wall, and gas was 5 cents a gallon, etc. But eventually, the deal got done.

Funnily enough, if Aiyuk actually does stay with San Francisco on an enormous extension, Samuel likely becomes a trade candidate. Both were rumored to be available for trades during the NFL draft in April, so if the 49ers commit to Aiyuk in the long term, they’ll be looking for opportunities to offload Samuel for some cap relief. They wouldn’t jump at the first offer — Samuel is still only 28, is uniquely suited to a Shanahan offense, and, with $52.8 million in cap hits over the next two seasons, is pretty good value among wide receivers — but they’d have to pick up the phone if someone came calling.