Bubble Watch: Here's what players outside the FedEx Cup top 30 need to get in

The PGA Tour is returning to Colorado for the first time in a decade this week for the BMW Championship, the penultimate event of the FedEx Cup season.

The top 50 golfers in the FedEx Cup points standings will battle the elevation at Castle Pines Golf Club outside Denver. Castle Pines measures about 8,130 yards — the longest course in PGA Tour history — but it will play more like 7,300 after elevation adjustments.

The PGA Tour last visited Castle Pines for the final version of The International, a modified Stableford scoring event, in 2006.

“It’s a longer walk, I’ll tell you that,” said Patrick Cantlay, a two-time BMW Championship winner. “There’s going to be some tired caddies at the end of this week with the uphill and the downhill and the 8,100 yards. The ball is going farther, but we’ve got to walk all that way.”

The top 30 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings after Sunday’s final round will advance to next week’s Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, where the winner will collect a whopping $25 million of $100 million in FedEx Cup bonuses. The top 30 golfers will also earn two-year exemptions on the PGA Tour and access to the four major championships in 2025.

World No. 1 golfer Scottie Scheffler can remain atop the points standings (and start the Tour Championship with a two-stroke lead over everyone else) if he finishes solo fourth or better in the BMW Championship. Xander Schauffele, who picked up his first two major championship titles at the PGA Championship and The Open, can overtake Scheffler if he wins and Scheffler finishes in a two-way tie for fourth or worse, according to the PGA Tour.

“Fortunately, I had a good regular season, so I’m in position to not relax but I can play conservative and kind of hold my spot,” Schauffele said. “I could win this week and still not take Scottie, just with how often he finishes in the top 10, with the amount of points we’re getting.”

Here’s a closer look at some of the golfers on the top 30 bubble and those outside of it who have work to do at Castle Pines Golf Club, including where they’ll have to finish to have a chance:

30. Denny McCarthy

With 5,168 FedEx Cup points, McCarthy has just a three-point advantage over Tommy Fleetwood in the standings. He’ll be on the bubble at the BMW Championship, which was exactly where he started in the second leg of last year’s FedEx Cup playoffs. He finished 33rd in points and missed out on making his first appearance at the Tour Championship. He’s playing with a torn labrum in his left hip that might require surgery in the offseason, but that didn’t stop him from tying for ninth in Memphis last week.

31. Tommy Fleetwood (Needs a two-way tie for 48th or better to play in Tour Championship)

The Englishman claimed a silver medal at the Paris Olympics, but it has been a bit of a so-so season on tour. He tied for third at the Masters and 16th at the U.S. Open. He has just three top-10s in 17 starts and none since his career-best finish at Augusta National Golf Club in April.

32. Chris Kirk (Two-way tie for 42nd)

Kirk picked up his fourth PGA Tour victory in the season opener at The Sentry in Hawai’i. However, the former Georgia star has just one top-10 finish since then — a tie for 10th at the RBC Heritage at Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, on April 21. He ranks 154th in strokes gained: putting (-.434), which has been a big reason for his slide.

36. Matt Fitzpatrick (solo 25th)

The 2022 U.S. Open winner has been battling a right thumb injury, which caused him to pull out of the Olympics after carding a 10-over 81 in the third round at Le Golf National outside Paris. He tied for fifth at the Memorial in early June, but then had four straight finishes of 36th or worse. He looked better while tying for 18th in Memphis last week.

37. Will Zalatoris (two-way tie for 24th)

Last week’s tie for 12th was a positive development for Zalatoris, who has spent much of the past two years recovering from back surgery. He had missed the cut or withdrawn in five of six tournaments before finishing 9 under at TPC Southwind. Another positive sign: Zalatoris gained strokes off the tee (.445), on approach (.114), around the green (.123) and putting (.514) last week.

39. Cameron Young (solo 23rd)

It’s been a boom-or-bust type of season for Young, who was runner-up at the Valspar Championship and tied for ninth at the Masters in the spring. He also has seven finishes outside the top 50, including a tie for 61st at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. The 2022 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year is one of the longest hitters off the tee, but he’s 142nd in strokes gained: putting (-.288).

41. Adam Scott (two-way tie for 20th)

The 44-year-old Australian’s game has been trending up over the past month. He was solo second at the Scottish Open, tied for 10th at The Open and 18th at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He moved from 67th to 41st in FedEx points and has positioned himself to return to East Lake Golf Club for the 13th time in his career. Scott made his first PGA Tour start in the U.S. at Castle Pines Golf Club in August 2000, missing the cut in The International.

43. Max Homa (solo 18th)

Homa won twice in back-to-back seasons and got off to a promising start with a tie for eighth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and third at the Masters this past spring. But it’s been a struggle lately, as Homa’s past five starts were a missed cut and four finishes of 43rd or worse. He has struggled mightily off the tee, hitting only 55.9% of fairways.

48. Nick Dunlap (solo 11th)

After becoming the first amateur to win a PGA Tour event since Phil Mickelson at The American Express on Jan. 21, the former Alabama star predictably struggled at times as a rookie pro. He missed the cut at the Masters, PGA Championship and U.S. Open. But Dunlap rallied to win the Barracuda Championship and tied for fifth last week, which moved him up 20 spots in the FedEx Cup points standings.

50. Keegan Bradley (two-way tie for ninth)

Outside of runner-up finishes at the Sony Open in Hawai’i in January and the Charles Schwab Challenge in late May, it’s been a rather nondescript season for Bradley, who will captain the U.S. Ryder Cup team next year. The 2018 BMW Championship winner has just one top-25 finish in his past seven starts since finishing five strokes behind Davis Riley at the Charles Schwab Challenge.