MMA real or not: Will O'Malley, Grasso both retain at Noche UFC?

Despite September being one of the lighter months on the UFC calendar, with only three weekends featuring fight cards, it is significant with the promotion’s ambitious endeavor into Sphere in Las Vegas on Sept. 14 for Noche UFC — which is how the fight promotion is branding UFC 306.

The other weeks are also significant, however. UFC Fight Night on Sept. 7 features a crossroads fight between welterweights as former title contender Gilbert Burns and Sean Brady will jockey for position in a suddenly crowded 170-pound division. The same can be said for the UFC’s venture to Paris on Sept. 28 when Renato Moicano and Benoît Saint Denis battle in a high-stakes lightweight bout.

And, oh yeah, that Noche UFC card is much more than an expensive production, with two title fights sitting atop the bill. Alexa Grasso defends her strawweight title in a rubber match with Valentina Shevchenko, and men’s bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley looks to turn back his toughest test to date against Merab Dvalishvili.

Andreas Hale, Brett Okamoto and Jeff Wagenheim decipher what’s real and what’s not in the world of MMA as we move past the dog days of summer.

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Real or not: Both champions will leave with their belts at Noche UFC

Not. It’s possible that both Grasso and O’Malley could leave Sphere with their titles, but neither fighter is a prohibitive favorite against their opponent for good reason. According to ESPN BET, O’Malley is the underdog at -105 odds, while Grasso-Shevchenko is a coin toss at -110 for both fighters.

The first time Grasso and Shevchenko met, Shevchenko was up on the scorecards when an ill-advised spinning back kick led to the finishing sequence that saw Grasso secure the submission. It also can be argued that Shevchenko was robbed of a split decision win in the rematch. Both fights were nip-and-tuck affairs, and the third fight will likely be no different, with one small mistake leading to Shevchenko regaining her championship.

As for O’Malley, Dvalishvili is a nightmare of a matchup due to his relentless pressure and surreal cardio. Dvalishvili has made mincemeat of the opposition over the past six years, with no judge ever scoring a fight in favor of his opponent. Of course, O’Malley could turn Dvalishvili’s lights out with a single punch. But it will take a lot of work to create the opening to punch through. — Hale

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Real or not: Conor McGregor will fight before the end of 2024

Not. I don’t think McGregor ever fights again, which is disappointing but also somewhat inevitable. I don’t think McGregor was the same after the Floyd Mayweather fight in 2017. The McGregor who became double champ a year earlier, he was young, hungry and dialed in. I don’t think his heart has truly been into the fight game since, and we knew that was a possibility when he took that Mayweather opportunity.

I believe McGregor still identifies as a fighter, but getting through a camp and stepping into the Octagon is hard. It takes commitment and a firm desire to be there. No one can confidently say McGregor still has that. I welcome him to prove me wrong, but at this point, no, I don’t expect to see him again. — Okamoto

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Real or not: Raul Rosas Jr. is the best young prospect (under age 25) fighting in September

Real, but barely. He’s certainly the most popular under-25 prospect fighting in September, but he’s just narrowly the best.

Rosas has all of the raw tools, and at the age of 19, he has already demonstrated marked improvement following his upset loss to Christian Rodriguez last April. He’ll certainly get a hero’s welcome at Sphere when he faces Aoriqileng on Mexican Independence Day weekend. However, Rosas is still rough around the edges and relatively untested.

Nipping at his heels is Felipe dos Santos, who nearly pulled off a massive upset when he stepped in on short notice to face ranked flyweight Manel Kape last September. He escaped with a split decision over Victor Altamirano in February and is back in action against Andre Lima early in September. Dos Santos is an explosive flyweight with tremendous potential under the tutelage of Diego Lima at Chute Boxe. Training in the vicinity of Charles Oliveira will sharpen his raw edges.

Daniel Zellhuber and Yazmin Jauregui would have got the edge over Rosas, but both turned 25 in the past few months and were eliminated from the conversation. — Hale

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Which Bellator fight are you most looking forward to in September?

Usman Nurmagomedov vs. Alexander Shabliy.

Hands down. Nurmagomedov is 26 years old and has shown a talent that makes you wonder what we’ll say about his career when it’s all said and done. He’s part of the lineage of Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov fighters that has produced, possibly, the two greatest lightweights of all time in Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev. Shabliy is the biggest threat to his reign in Bellator. The 31-year-old Russian hasn’t lost in nearly eight years and was a key training partner of Arman Tsarukyan for his most recent fight against Oliveira. This matchup was supposed to happen earlier this year, but it was delayed due to PFL’s acquisition of Bellator and an injury to Nurmagomedov. It’s arguably the best title fight that Bellator can make. — Okamoto

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Real or not: Gilbert Burns-Sean Brady is the best non-PPV fight in September

Real, but with an asterisk attached.

My asterisk concerns the UFC 306 bout order. The Sept. 14 event is a pay-per-view, but if the women’s flyweight bout between Irene Aldana and Norma Dumont ends up on the non-PPV prelims, that’ll be my top choice because Dumont has won seven of her last eight fights and Aldana beats everybody but the best of the best (only losses since 2018: champion Raquel Pennington, ex-champions Amanda Nunes and Holly Holm).

Burns vs. Brady is also an intriguing matchup, though, especially if the two sublime grapplers hit the canvas. And it gets a fiery lead-in from thunder-fisted Jessica Andrade and Natalia Silva, winner of 11 in a row. — Wagenheim

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Give us a bold prediction for MMA in September?

The star of the show at UFC 306 will not be any of the four fighters — including two champions — featured in the main event and co-main. No, the star will be Sphere itself. OK, maybe it’s not so bold of me to roll out what seems an obvious forecast, given that the $2.3 billion entertainment venue off the Las Vegas Strip is a spectacular sight to behold no matter whether it’s hosting the UFC or U2. Let’s not forget, though, that O’Malley, the night’s headliner, is the flashiest luminary active in the sport. But even his Technicolor hairdo will look as understated as a crew cut compared to the out-of-this-world surroundings.

UFC CEO Dana White is on record saying this Sphere extravaganza is so pricey that it will be a one-off. So you know the promotion will push the envelope to get a bang for its megabuck. After watching mind-blowing videos of Dead & Company concerts and filmmaker Darren Aronofsky’s presentations, I see that the possibilities are endless at Sphere — and that for those who can’t afford a ticket to be there, the awesomeness even translates (somewhat) to TV. The UFC isn’t known for subtlety, so buckle up for the trippiest fight night we’ve ever experienced. — Wagenheim