Chiefs are SB faves, but books exposed on Lions

It turns out that the NFL’s 2023 season opener between the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs was a showcase for the two teams that would be the most relevant for Super Bowl futures ahead of the 2024 season.

The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are both the consensus betting favorites and one of the most popular picks to win an unprecedented third consecutive championship, showing +500 odds on ESPN BET, where they’ve attracted a leading 13% of tickets and 17% of handle.

DraftKings and FanDuel also have Kansas City as their bets and money leader, reporting 17% of tickets and 17% of handle, and 11% of tickets and 19% of handle, respectively.

“It’s been largely one-way traffic with the Chiefs in terms of betting interest once again,” ESPN BET head of sportsbook Patrick Jay said.

Kansas City was a popular futures pick last season, as the reigning Super Bowl champion always takes an immediate surge of money, according to BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini.

“There’s a lot of action on the Chiefs and a lot of money, but when you’re 5-to-1, it takes a lot more money to put you in a hazardous position as the bookmaker,” DraftKings director of sportsbook operations Johnny Avello told ESPN. “When you’ve got all these other teams with a much higher number, it takes a smaller amount to put you in a hazard.”

One of those teams is the Lions (+1000), who have taken 15.9% of the handle and a leading 13.3% of the wagers at BetMGM to be the book’s largest liability. ESPN BET, DraftKings and FanDuel all show Detroit taking the second-largest percentage of bet share both by bets and money. The Lions have been a public darling since coach Dan Campbell took the helm.

“We had way more liability on them last season because they opened up at 40-to-1, 30-to-1, whatever they were. Now at 12-to-1, it’s a much easier pill for the book to swallow,” Cipollini said. “A lot of Michigan bettors for us last season were definitely all over the Lions, and I think they put their division-winner tickets or whatever winnings they had from last season right back onto them for this season.”

From there, there’s really no consensus on who the most popular teams are among bettors, but the Cincinnati Bengals (+1300), Philadelphia Eagles (+1100) and Baltimore Ravens (+1000) all crack the top three by bets and/or handle at various sportsbooks.

The reigning NFC champion San Francisco 49ers (+600) have seen comparatively less action across the marketplace, but they do have the third-most handle at BetMGM (9.4%).