NFL betting: Loza's and Dopp's Week 1 Props that Pop
Welcome back to another season of Props that Pop. This column, originally a solo Liz Loza special, is all about diving into the numbers, reading between the lines, deciphering coachspeak and making some gut calls with the information we have available. It has truly been one of my favorite pieces to write every week over the past two NFL seasons, and I’m pumped and primed to keep this props train rolling.
As always, our lines will be coming from ESPN BET, so head on over to our sportsbook if you’re looking at playing any of these lines, and remember to always be smart and bet responsibly.
With that said, I’m keeping the intro short this week since we’ve already been waiting months for the NFL to return and there’s no reason to delay that any longer. So, without further ado, Liz and I would like to present the 2024 Week 1 edition of Props that Pop. — Daniel Dopp
All odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Running back props
Jerome Ford OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-132)
Loza: Ford will have the Cleveland Browns backfield all to himself with Nick Chubb (PUP) and Nyheim Hines (non-football injury list) still nursing their respective knee injuries. The 24-year-old averaged 12 carries last year, but given the Browns are 2.5-point home favorites, game flow figures to work in his favor, probably boosting his total to around 15. The Dallas Cowboys boast a ferocious pass defense, but they were middle of the pack against the run, giving up 4.2 yards per carry in 2023. With a healthy number of handoffs at his avail, Ford should cruise his way past 50 rushing yards.
Chase Brown OVER 14.5 receiving yards (-120)
Dopp: Well, it’s Week 1, which means we have no idea what offenses are truly going to look like. It feels as if more and more teams took the “don’t play any of your starters for meaningful minutes in the preseason” approach, and that leaves us wondering how a few of these crowded backfields will shake out. One situation I do trust, however, is the split in the Cincinnati Bengals backfield. With Joe Mixon out of town, it seems as if the early down work will go to Zack Moss with Brown showcasing his pass-catching abilities as the third-down back. It’s a role that we saw Brown in at the end of his rookie year, when he collected two or more passes in four of his final five games. Brown averaged over 11 yards per reception last season and will look to build upon his blossoming role as Joe Burrow‘s trusted target out of the backfield. As of this writing, I’m still assuming Ja’Marr Chase suits up, but if he doesn’t, I like this line even more, with additional targets being spread around to the rest of the team. Given the explosiveness of this Bengals’ offense, Brown’s prowess as a pass catcher and an average New England Patriots defense, I feel confident in Chase getting multiple looks and beating this line.
Jaylen Warren OVER 14.5 receiving yards (-115)
Dopp: From one muddled backfield to another, the Pittsburgh Steelers have a similar, but slightly better, situation than the Bengals. Najee Harris should handle the majority of the early down work, and Warren should reprise his rookie role of catching passes out of the backfield while also spelling Harris. Warren is set up to feast in the passing game after turning in a stellar rookie season that saw him turn 75 targets into 61 receptions for 370 receiving yards. In fact, there were only two games last season in which Warren didn’t have multiple catches, and he bested this 14.5-yard receiving mark in 12 of his 17 games as a rookie. I understand all of the questions surrounding the quarterback situation in Pittsburgh, and it’s definitely less than ideal, but Warren showed too much ability out of the backfield last season to have the team completely fail to utilize him. Given that this line is so low, I feel very confident in Warren eclipsing this number against the Atlanta Falcons.
Wide receiver props
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Where should Malik Nabers be ranked among WRs in fantasy?
Mike Clay breaks down where wide receiver Malik Nabers should be ranked in his first season with the Giants.
Malik Nabers 6+ receptions (-105)
Dopp: The Nabers receiving yardage line has moved multiple times, so we’re shifting to a receptions bet instead. This one is tougher to give analytical evidence for, but my co-host Field Yates said it perfectly on Friday’s Fantasy Focus Football show: We’re looking for Nabers to get the Zay Flowers treatment. In the NFL opener, Lamar Jackson locked onto one WR, and it was his explosive playmaker Flowers, who saw nine targets (the truth is it was more like 13-14 targets, but he had a bunch of those plays called back because of penalties on the offensive line) and turned that into six receptions. The Giants should be in a similar situation with Nabers, who was drafted to help carry the offense after the departure of Saquon Barkley. Daniel Jones doesn’t have many trusted pass catchers behind Nabers, with Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt next in line for targets, Nabers probably should see 8-12 targets as the Giants lean on him to help move the ball downfield. I’m nervous about taking a receiving yardage line that continues to fluctuate on ESPN BET, so I’m going to stick with a receiving prop at plus money. I understand if you want to see it before you buy it, but the Giants just unretired the first number ever retired in NFL history for this rookie WR, something I don’t ever remember happening elsewhere in the NFL, so I’m buying into the hype and taking Nabers to beat this number against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1.
Jameson Williams OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-120)
Loza: It’s now or never for Jamo. Thankfully for Detroit Lions superfan Daniel Dopp, the former Alabama standout with 4.3 speed has impressed throughout the summer, earning regular praise from beat reporters and his teammates. Expected to work as the team’s No. 2 WR, Williams figures to draw a career-high number of targets. And in a game with the highest projected points total of the week (52.5), those looks could double his 3.4 average from last year. The Los Angeles Rams gave up the 10th-most receptions over 20 yards (57) in 2023, increasing Williams’ chances of nabbing at least one highlight-worthy play.
Darnell Mooney OVER 34.5 receiving yards (-135)
Loza: It’s been a minute since Mooney’s 1,000-receiving yard effort in Chicago with the Bears, but a change of scenery could be the catalyst for a bounce-back. The Atlanta Falcons signed the 26-year-old to a three-year deal worth $39 million and all but sidestepped the wide receiver position in April’s draft, signaling the team’s confidence in Mooney’s ability to dominate the No. 2 WR role. With the highly accurate Kirk Cousins (69.5% completions) under center and Joey Porter Jr. expected to shadow Drake London, Mooney should shine in his Falcons debut at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
