China’s beleaguered real estate shares jump almost 10% after Beijing makes its ‘strongest housing pledge to date’
Chinese shares continued their near-week-long rally on Monday, as Chinese officials unveiled even more measures to support the world’s second-largest economy through a consumption slump and property crisis.
The CSI 300, which tracks companies traded in the Chinese cities of Shanghai and Shenzhen, rose 8.5% on Monday; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 2.4%. The jump caps the Chinese market’s best week in over a decade.
China’s property stocks gained after three major Chinese cities—Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou—lowered restrictions constraining property transactions. The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index rose by more than 6%, while the CSI 300 real estate index jumped by close to 10%.
Guangzhou removed all restrictions on home purchases on Monday. Previously, non-resident families had to pay taxes or social insurance for at least six months before being allowed to buy a second home. Non-resident individuals could only buy one apartment.
On Tuesday, Shenzhen will allow non-resident families with at least two children to buy a second home; the city is also lowering the minimum downpayment for property purchases and making it easier to buy property in suburban areas.
Shanghai is also lowering its down payment for home purchases. Additionally, non-residents will now only need to pay taxes or social insurance for a year before purchasing a home in the city’s suburbs, down from three years.
In a meeting of the Chinese Politburo last week, officials agreed that the government should stabilize the real estate market, such as by adjusting home purchase policies and lowering mortgage rates, according to a government readout.
Beijing’s statements last week were the “strongest housing pledge to date,” DBS said in a research note released Monday.
Six major Chinese banks said on Monday they will adjust mortgage rates for existing home loans. Detailed measures will be announced on Oct. 12 and the adjustments will be implemented by Oct. 31.
Betty Wang, the lead China economist at Oxford Economics, an independent economic advisory firm, says the shift in official rhetoric reflects an “increasing urgency” to stabilize the real estate market as this year’s 5% growth target is at risk.
Real estate at times contributed as much as a third of China’s economy, yet the sector has been in a slump after Beijing cracked down on developers’ high levels of debt in 2020. The now-years-long crisis is dragging down Chinese consumer confidence, as about 70% of the country’s household wealth is parked in real estate.
China also unleashed a wave of new stimulus pledges and policies last week, starting Tuesday when the country’s central bank announced several rate cuts. On Friday, the central bank announced a 50 basis point cut to the reserve requirement ratio, or the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves. The governor of the People’s Bank of China Pan Gongsheng estimated the move will inject 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) of liquidity into China’s financial market.
The stimulus is “bold by historical standard” Wang notes, but the firm is sticking to its 4.8% growth forecast for China—below Beijing’s official 5% growth target—as it’ll take time for policies to be executed by local governments and banks.
But Chinese markets have rallied on the news, as investors hope Beijing will now bring more policy support to China’s flagging economy. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is up 14% since Tuesday, while the CSI 300 is up 24% over the same period.
