Roto/category draft tiers by position

The analysis for this article proved one thing beyond a shadow of a doubt: Victor Wembanyama is an alien. In the best way possible.

I compile these rankings based upon my season-long projections from the almost 400 potentially rotation players in the NBA for the upcoming season. Category-based fantasy hoops rankings are different than points-based, with less emphasis on pure volume, more benefit to specialized counting categories like blocks, steals and 3-pointers, and more punishment for inefficient shooting from either the field or the line.

The value of a contribution in a given category is going to differ based on the scarcity of the contribution. For example, there are far fewer steals than there are assists, so the weighting of each steal a player averages will contribute more to their category rankings than each assist.

Make sense?

The category with the most volume is points, so each individual point scored counts least toward these rankings. And the category with the least volume is blocked shots, so each blocked shot is worth quite a bit of weight in the rankings.

You’ll see that phenomenon played out in both the Top 150 roto and category rankings, as well as here in the category tiers. It’s easy to see that shot blockers as a whole rank significantly better in the category tiers than in the points-based tiers. And, generally speaking, you’ll notice that defensive specialists or 3-point shooters will fare relatively better and players that generate volume in points, rebounds and/or assists fare relatively worse in category rankings than in points-based.

So, how does this prove Wemby is an alien?

He already projects to strong volume in points and rebounds, and he even dishes out quite a few assists for a big man. But he also shoots with solid-to-good percentages, knocks down his fair share of 3-pointers and has the potential to lead all big men in steals as well. Oh yeah, and it looks like he’s going to lead the league in blocked shots…by a lot…for every season from now until he retires.

Put that all together, and Wemby’s category-based ranking projection is quite literally off the charts. The gap between his projected category score and those of Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic, second and third in the rankings, is as large as the gap between Doncic and the player ranked 38th… who ended up in Tier 4.

So, not only could Wemby get his own tier in these rankings. Wemby could be alone in Tier 1… then Tier 2 would be empty… then Tier 3 would also be empty. Then, in Tier 4, you could finally get Doncic and Jokic and the other best category producers in fantasy hoops.

I told you. Wemby is an absolute alien in the fantasy basketball universe. He could be in for a season of category contributions not seen since “Space Jam.”

The following is my breakdown of players into tiers, by position, based upon my preseason projections. It’s worthwhile for you to see how I break things down, but ultimately you’ll get the most benefit out of taking a few minutes for yourself and breaking down the players into your own tiers based upon your own valuation. You would be shocked how much a little exercise like that can do to prepare you for your draft, and how much this 20-minute exercise could set you apart from the other team managers in your league.

---

Point guard

The upper tiers are full of more point guards than any other position, with only centers even close. Four point guards reside in Tier 1, with Trae Young‘s strong 3-point shooting in addition to his 30-10 upside potential earning him a spot on the tier along with Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton. LaMelo Ball has Tier 1 upside and looks to return to that level after missing much of the past two seasons with ankle injuries, making him the biggest risk-reward proposition among point guards near the top of the draft. Damian Lillard is another player looking to bounce back this season, with hopes that Year 2 on the Bucks is closer to his usual level. D’Angelo Russell ended up in Tier 4, significantly better than his placement in points-based rankings, in large part because he makes so many 3-pointers. Immanuel Quickley, Darius Garland and Coby White are all young guards with upside in Tier 5. In Tier 7, we find our first rookie in Stephon Castle.