Liberty-Lynx Game 5 predictions: Which team wins, and is it the best WNBA Finals ever?
The 2024 WNBA season has been one for the books, and it will end Sunday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) in a winner-take-all at Barclays Center between the No. 1 seed New York Liberty and the No. 2 seed Minnesota Lynx.
Home teams are 5-2 all time in Game 5 of the WNBA Finals.
The Liberty could have clinched their first championship in franchise history Friday, but the Lynx held court. New York, the league’s only remaining original franchise without a title, has lost all five previous times it has played for the championship.
Minnesota can win a WNBA record fifth title with a win Sunday. Cheryl Reeve sports a 2-1 record in Finals Game 5s as head coach.
What should we expect in Game 5? ESPN breaks down the X factors and predicts which team will be crowned champion.
Is this the best WNBA Finals in league history?
Michael Voepel: There is usually recency bias with questions like this because what we’ve seen for the past week is so fresh.
That said, there is a case to be made for this series. It’s gone the distance, and three of the four games have been decided by three points or fewer. And the other one — New York’s 80-66 victory in Game 2 — was a two-point game with less than 4 minutes left. There’s often at least one dud game even in a really good championship series, but that hasn’t happened.
We have seen a little of everything:
Game 1, Lynx win: An 18-point comeback, a four-point play to take the lead in the last five seconds by Courtney Williams, and overtime. Game 3, Liberty win: Sabrina Ionescu‘s 28-foot 3-pointer with one second left. Game 4, Lynx win: Bridget Carleton‘s two game-winning free throws with two seconds left. This game also was the tightest throughout, with 14 lead changes and 13 ties.
Sunday will mark Reeve’s sixth Finals Game 5 (including her time with the Detroit Shock as an assistant coach), so she is well positioned to make comparisons. She said the Minnesota-Los Angeles Sparks Finals in 2016 and 2017, which both went five games, stand out because multiple future Hall of Famers were playing for both teams.
Two games in the 2016 Finals ended on last-second shots, both won by the Sparks. The first two games of the 2017 Finals were decided by one and two points, the next three by 11, 11 and 9 points.
The 2024 WNBA Finals have been ____.
Charlie Creme: Heart-stopping. All four games have been close late. For sheer viewing pleasure, few series in basketball history have been better.
Alexa Philippou: Gratifying. In a season that welcomed a lot of new fans and viewers due to the sensational rookie class, it’s a treat that these two teams — historic and special in their own ways — are putting on such a high-level series. It’s the latest reminder of how good the players and the coaching and the basketball have been in the WNBA, long before its sudden rise in cultural relevance.
Voepel: Excruciating for Liberty fans. Some New York faithful go all the way back to 1997. They’ve stayed the course through many postseason disappointments. It felt like this was “their year,” especially once they defeated the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces in the semifinals. But the Lynx are making the Liberty work as hard as possible. Some New York fans will watch Game 5 like it’s a horror movie that could go terribly wrong. Such is the price of longtime fandom.
Who or what will be the X factor in Game 5?
Philippou: The health and effectiveness of Alanna Smith, who’s pushing through a back issue that (along with foul trouble) kept her sidelined a good bit of Game 3. She finished with 12 points and 7 boards in 30 minutes in Game 4, a good sign for the Lynx, who also got solid minutes from Dorka Juhasz. Now coming off of a flight and quick turnaround following Friday’s game, whether Smith can continue to battle against Jonquel Jones will be a huge factor for Minnesota.
And as obvious as it sounds, this game might come down to which team makes fewer mistakes down the stretch and which steps up in the clutch. Late fouls, free throw efficiency and big-time 3-pointers have swung the outcome of three of the four Finals games. If Sunday comes down to the final minute or seconds, late-game execution will decide which team is crowned champion.
Creme: Officiating. I don’t think Friday’s game was officiated unfairly as Sandy Brondello said in Friday’s postgame news conference, but now both coaches have engaged in posturing about the officials. How Game 5 is called will be something to monitor. After Game 3, Minnesota’s Reeve lamented that Napheesa Collier received more scrutiny from the officials than Breanna Stewart. In Game 4, Stewart was the superstar in foul trouble. Did Reeve’s words have some influence? We’ll never know, but now that Brondello has publicly aired her displeasure with the whistles after a game in which her team attempted 11 fewer free throws, it will be interesting to see what the foul and free throw numbers look like Sunday.
Voepel: It feels like there is more pressure on the Liberty, for obvious reasons as they seek their first championship. How well they defend from the tip can set the tone in this game. How well Breanna Stewart plays offensively is the other big. As we saw in Game 3, she can totally take over. But as we saw in Game 4, she can also struggle with her shooting accuracy.
Can the Liberty win the title if Stewart and Ionescu shoot like they did Friday?
Voepel: In Game 4, you could tell Stewart and Napheesa Collier were feeling the grind of battling each other for a week-plus. Collier was 4-of-10 from the field and Stewart 5-of-21. But with everything on the line Sunday, it’s likely we’ll see strong performances from both. Getting a good shooting game from Ionescu, then, could be an absolute key for New York.
Philippou: The Liberty were within reach of winning a championship with those two shooting poorly Friday, thanks to the contributions of Jones, Leonie Fiebich and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton. So maybe it’s not impossible to win in such circumstances — especially if Jones goes off — but it makes the margin for error much slimmer.
Still, it’s not a coincidence that in New York’s two Finals losses, Ionecsu shot 30.8% and 33.3% (vs. 55.6% and 41.7% in their wins) and Stewart shot sub-30% (vs. 38.9% and 45%).
Stewart and Ionescu are New York’s leaders and need to make shots down the stretch in the most important game of their Liberty careers. But the Liberty also need to clean up some of their offensive process; New York’s movement and decision-making on offense in stretches of this series are more the culprit than missing shots.
Creme: No. That might seem like too absolute of a response given New York almost did win Game 4 with its two biggest stars combining to shoot 10-for-36. Stewart and Ionescu also shot poorly in Game 1, an overtime loss for the Liberty. And that’s just it: In New York’s wins in this series, Stewart has scored 21 and 30 points. Ionescu made 10 of 21 shots combined in Games 2 and 3 and had the game-winning 3-pointer in Game 3. Sure, Jones and Fiebich were outstanding in Game 4, but we have seen that that isn’t enough. New York needs its stars, at least one of them, to be just that to win the first title in franchise history.
The Lynx already won one game this series at Barclays. How do they pull off another?
Philippou: They’ll need to put on another defensive masterclass. In the two games Minnesota lost this series, New York shot over 45% from the floor and 40% from 3. And as we previously discussed, slowing down Ionescu and Stewart would go a long way. If Stewart and Collier neutralize each other, can some combination of Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams and Bridget Carleton hit big shots down the stretch?
Voepel: If the Lynx have the lead late, they might be able to force the Liberty into splintering like they did in Game 1. It just felt like the New York players didn’t really pull together in that loss, as they were all trying to right the ship solo after their 15-point lead slipped away in the last five minutes of regulation.
Which team will win Sunday?
Creme: New York. But it’ll be another tight one. Stewart will bounce back and will make a big play late. The Liberty earned home-court advantage by being the best team in the league all season. This is what it is for, and the Barclays Center crowd that will almost assuredly be more than 18,000 will provide just enough of a boost for New York.
Philippou: New York. This series has been full of surprises, but I’m going to stick with my original prediction. Courtney Williams kept saying before Game 3 the Lynx did not want to go back to Brooklyn because of how energizing the crowd is for the Liberty. And after the Aces celebrated a championship on the Barclays Center floor last year, the Liberty aren’t going to let a visiting team do that again.
Voepel: Minnesota. Reeve had the best possible answer Friday to what would decide Game 5: “It’s two great teams. Who knows?” That’s why this series has been so good. Even with the Liberty having the best regular-season record and being the No. 1 seed, the Lynx had the better of New York in the regular season and in the Commissioner’s Cup final. It really has been evenly matched.
As Charlie and Alexa mentioned, the crowd at Barclays could be a sixth player in this game; the energy level will be amazing. But having picked the Lynx at the start of the series, I’ll stay with that.
